I follow the MWC closely and was looking at this match up. It looks like as of right now 72% of the bets are coming in on Air Force.
If you follow these teams closely and look at the scores from the two games these teams played each other this year it would appear that the no brainer and easy pick is to take Air Force getting +9.5 or +10 depending on what book you get it at.
If you look at Air Forces games closely you will notice that after they have a rivalry game or a big conference game and then go out on the road they are horrible. This comes into play because Air Force just won a huge home game over New Mexico on Satruday 89-88 by coming from behind and hitting a 3 with 3 seconds to go in the game for the win. Huge emotional win for the Falcons.
Lets look at how they have done for the most part on the year after playing big games.
Dec.29th they played Florida and they lost 78-61. While the score seems to indicate them losing by 17 the game was a lot closer. It was a 2 point game at half and then a 7 point game with 12.30 to go in the game. Then Florida pulled away. So the very next game after a big game with Florida they go on the road and lose to Richmond 91-68 by 23 points.
Jan. 12th they play their first game against UNLV and it goes into OT and UNLV pulls it out 76-71. The very next game AFA goes on the road and gets pounded by CSU 79-40 that's a 29 point difference.
Feb. 2nd they play San Diego St. at home and win 70-67 then the very next game they go on the road and lose at New Mexico 81-58 thats a 23 point difference.
Feb. 16th they play CSU again at home and lose 89-86 keeping it close and then the very next game go on the road and lose at Boise St. 77-65 by 12 points.
Feb. 26th they play at home in a semi rivalry game against Wyoming and win 72-66 and then go on the road and lose at Fresno St. 56-41 by 15 points.
So you can see a pattern here. Not only do they have a pattern to not play well on the road after big emotional games here you also have a good situational spot.
UNLV just coming off of a bad home loss should be ready to go today and they are playing this tournament game on their home court. You have Air Force just coming off of a huge home win over New Mexico going onto the road like I have shown above and what they tend to do in this spot.
Also UNLV lost the last game these two teams played by 15 points so they have the revenge factor on their minds. You will notice the first game these teams played against each other when UNLV pulled it out and it went into OT.... UNLV was just coming off of a huge game at New Mexico. The 2nd time these teams played UNLV was also just coming off of a huge game against New Mexico. Today's game is a different story with them just coming off of a bad loss against a mediocre to bad Fresno St. team.
By just looking at the scores of their two games and the line that has been put out on this game Air Force looks like the easy play but I'm going to disagree. I think UNLV rolls at home today.
This is a tournament game and Air Force does have a senior team but I think this is a bad spot for them. After that big emotional win over New Mexico in their last game and UNLV coming off of a loss I think UNLV comes out ready.
The play is UNLV -9 -120. Going to buy a half point as I don't like getting beat by the hook.
Good Luck with whichever way you go.