UCLA @ Kansas

Line is currently Kansas -16.5... that sure seems like a lot of points, even against a Bruin team that hasn't looked all that great in their preseason games against quality competition. Basically this line is saying Kansas is going to blow UCLA out of the water. I just don't see that happening upon my initial look, but I'm gonna try to dig deeper to see if I can't find some quality info that could help figure out just what might happen in this game.

That line is insane.....

Kansas is playing really good basketball right now, on both ends of the court and especially on the defensive end. The half-court pressure of Kansas could cause major problems for UCLA. UCLA just does not seem to value the basketball at all.....I've seen three games and am really amazed how careless they are with the ball.

Kansas is deep and talented and I don't really see how UCLA defeats them tonight. That said, 16.5 is mind boggling, I was thinking this would come in around 12 or so.....

I won't be playing in Kansas in this game......I've played them 5 times this year, winning 4 and pushing 1. If I played this one it would be UCLA.....but I'm staying away. I want to enjoy a Jayhawk pasting of UCLA

 

Kansas Starters: 6'4" Morningstar, 6'3" Reed, 6'9" Morris, 6'10" Morris, and 6'3" Taylor

UCLA Starters: 6'0" Jones, 6'5" Lee, 6'8" Honeycutt, 6'8" Nelson, 6'10" Smith

UCLA has a distinct matchup advantage with Tyler Honeycutt, arguably UCLA's best/most skilled player, and whoever he matches up with on Kansas. I think Josh Smith will also have an advantage in the post, and he has been steadily improving all year.

Maybe I'm crazy... but I think UCLA has a legitimate chance to win this thing SU if they can limit their turnovers.



You hear that Coach Howland? DO NOT LET JERIME ANDERSON INTO THE GAME UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES

UCLA was in the game last year nip and tuck with Kansas in Pauley until Reeves Nelson suffered a brutal poke in the eye that knocked him out of the game. 

Here's the play by play for that game. Note that UCLA is drastically improved from last year's squad in terms of personnel (I'll take a Josh Smith, Lazeric Jones, and Tyler Lamb for Nicola Dragovic and James Keefe swap every day all day). Kansas is arguably worse this year in terms of talent, having lost Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, and Xavier Henry.

UCLA was down 4 with 17:24 in the 2H but that's all close as they got it. This was one of the worst gambling losses of the year for me last year as I fully expected UCLA to lose by 20+ (remember they were coming off an absolute ass whooping by Portland in a pre-season tourney)

 kansas or no play for me...thats a lot of points

 

I have seen nothing that demonstrates UCLA has the capability to limit turnovers......this is the best defensive team they have played this year.

As for size, Honeycutt will have an advantage, he's a nice player but, Kansas does have 6'10" Thomas Robinson and 7'0" Jeff Withey off the bench who both play significant minutes....with one Morris twin in the game with them, size advantages are really moot.

I think ultimately Kansas' depth and pressure defense will be the difference here....UCLA hasn't been bad defensively, but a lot of those stats were due to their first three games. VCU and Nova both scored in the eighties....Kansas will get into the eighties as well. 

I'm looking forward to the game......may be going up to it, haven't decided yet.

kap......I would argue that Kansas plays better team basketball this year than last and in my opinion are better on team defense than last year. This team is pretty damn good on both sides of the ball and very deep.

 

Every team has one of "those guys".  Don't you just hate it?  The guy comes in and turns the ball over, commits a stupid foul, gets beat on defense, then commits another turnover, and heads back to the bench.  Then the entire team has play flawless b-ball for 5 minutes to make up for that dude's 1 minute.

Thanks for the insight, mmac... hearing that from someone I respect like you will really give me pause, without doubt. I'm gonna keep breaking this thing down for most of the day to see if I can't figure out what the right side is

Anyone see a total out for this game yet?

FYI UCLA moneyline is +1150

 

Good luck.....gun to my head, I'd take the 16.5 points.

In my opinion it is tough to take a "dog" playing in lawrence.  No matter how many points that dog is getting.   Things can get out of hand in a hurry when the field house is rocking.  

In my opinion the play here is Kansas or no play at all.   KU has won 63 straight games at home and the vast majority of those games were double digit wins.   I know streaks are meant to be broken but from what I saw of UCLA in the NIT games I don't think the bruins have the pieces yet to knock off KU.   I do think the bruins are on track to becoming a power once again in the near future.  

kap...I forgot about Travis Releford for Kansas. He will play a lot of minutes as well. Probably 6'6"....athletic and long. He will be matched up with Honeycutt most of the time. That should be a good match-up.

the Phog is maybe the biggest HCA in the college game, and Ucla isn't going to limit possessions so they're walking into the lion's den.

I won't be laying 16.5 anytime this decade, but I would play KU if anything

and at the listed sizes for KU

My numbers have Kansas in a whitewash here.  Somewhere around a 25 point win.

I've been wrong before, but the Jayhawks are a huge play for me in this spot.

That's a whole lot of ass in your avatar picture swizzol. 

Still debating on how large I should go on my team tonight.  

Total released at 146 now... I have to think that this thing sails OVER the total unless UCLA just absolutely gets crushed and can't score on offense.

Kansas hits 80 or a few more.......Can UCLA get into the high 60's?

Over 146 and Over in the 1st Half is Money.. My Opnion..

thanks for another UCLA fade. 

Hey I remember you, you're the guy who only comes into my thread after losses. Remember when you gave me shit last year for the same thing after a UCLA loss? And then I went and tabulated my record and showed that I was like 11-6? Remember that?

I do.

Leaning Kansas Kap... you have to factor in the strength of the offenses that UCLA has played so far this year and that they've performed well (at least IMO)... the loss of Collins, Aldrich, and Henry wasn't missed in the first 6 games for KU, but I think UCLA length will be a challenge for the Chickenhawks.  In the short history of this series, no team has won by more than 17 and the dog is 4-1 ATS.  I think UCLA is better this year and KU is worse this year.  I was at that Kansas/UCLA game last season, and saw all the same things you did.