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Posted: #76
Good luck tonight Nropp
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


I can agree with that Louisville game.


I guess where I'm going with the value on Florida is that while they have been playing better in recent weeks, they really haven't had an offense that can compete with them, which is part of the reason they have looked better.

They're good. They're really good. I just can't pass up the value on the Gators here.

Had some nice discussion on this game in here today, but ultimately, it comes down to if Florida makes the three-ball, this will be a game. If they don't, it won't. 

GL

 

I will say Kentucky has a nasty defense, but if the defense has a weakness it is allowing some good looks from 3, so that could definitely be an advantage for Florida in this. Honestly, I'm not sure why any team even takes the ball inside on Kentucky at this point. Can't wait to watch this game and see how it unfolds. Good luck tonight!

 
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Posted: #78
Love your florida play, might be crazy for saying it, but I don't believe kentucky even makes the elite 8 this year, still feel they are very beatable especially against a billy donovan team. Also agree 3 ball will be crucial tonight, they'll get the open looks, just a matter of knocking them down.
 
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Posted: #79
if you get a live dog like FL and money-line parlay with a few favs, you can stand to make a buck or two and risk very little.  in football season,  one weekend Iowa St. was 27 point underdogs to OKL ST.   someone had 100 to win 8000 and covered with a spread bet at +27 points.  Iowa St. pulled the upset and later that weekend as this game was a Thurs. nighter and other upsets littered the week like Oregon getting upset by USC at home,  OKL gets upset by Baylor and  maybe WS getting upset.  if you had strung a money-line parlay of even a few dollars as it is very remote that a string of big upsets would occur but it did on this weekend.
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by jeroh:

any thoughts on ohio st? 9-2 ats at home and 8-1 ats at home -12.5 or higher.. possibly looking ahead to mich st saturday? dont think hummel can do enough to cover this spread though

Yah, Ohio State has been awfully impressive at home in the conference. About as far as I got into this match-up. Seems like Purdue might have a shot to stay in the game if they can hit some perimeter shots. They're missing a piece or two this year, but they have some shooters. Shots just haven't fallen.

Tough game, think the # is dead on.

GL
 
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Posted: #81
 
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Posted: #82
Hey Neil, I have a question in regards to a team that played a physical opponent and then the next game is a  finesse team.

You mention and point this out a lot.  What are the reasons for the disadvantage of this? 

And how about a team playing a finesse opponent and then going to play a physical opponent?

Is it just because of fatigue?  Thanks.
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by fantasychamp:

Ky 3pt defense is not as good as the 32% looks. the best 3pt shooting team they face is UNC who ranks 111th at 36% and they shot 61% against UK. On avg UK opp hit +1.8 over their percentage. With that being said UF is 11th in country at 40.7%at home 39.9% on the road. So if they hit 40% then I think not only does UF cover, but they also have a great shot at winning.  Also your always going to pay a premium for Ky and now they've covered 4 in a row.  Florida has good guard play,they occasionally press. they shoot the 3 well, they have good length. This is a National Champion type team. Lastly Donavan is a better coach than Cal.  It Florida or nothing in my humble opinion


UNC shooting threes like they did in Rupp won't happen again this year for them.  Second, if UF presses, UK will throw over top of that all day long for dunk after dunk after dunk.
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by sportsanalyst:

Hey Neil, I have a question in regards to a team that played a physical opponent and then the next game is a  finesse team.

You mention and point this out a lot.  What are the reasons for the disadvantage of this? 

And how about a team playing a finesse opponent and then going to play a physical opponent?

Is it just because of fatigue?  Thanks.

Just an angle I use. Playing a physical team or a team that slows the pace usually leads to fatigue into the next game with short rest. Fits in the same category as a team coming off a different style being put to the test against another style. Might be looking into things a bit too much, but something I've used over the years as an added advantage/angle within the match-up itself.
 
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Posted: #85
Hate playing road teams but Florida and purude both look too good to pass up.   You also make an interesting argument for Bama but I can't play too many road teams during the week in NCAA.
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:



Here's the SEC offenses in terms of offensive efficiency:

2 - Florida 
4 - Kentucky
28 - Mississippi State
32 - Vandy
81 - Alabama
100 - Arkansas

If stats don't include pace, they're worthless.

GL

I'd like to know if offensive efficiency numbers help with totals.  The opening line total for Fla/Ky was 131.  Now it's 142.5.  If I took pace out of the discussion and just looked at points scored in Fla games, they've only had one game over 142.5 in 2012 (they only had one or two under that this season in 2011).  The one game was USC, where both teams combined for 48 three attempts, and 21 made (44%).  It looks to me like with Kentucky's defense, that opening line wasn't too far off and the under is the play.

 
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Posted: #87
evansville/creighton under...

Creighton suffered a rare loss on Saturday, dropping a 65-62 decision on a last-second three-pointer from Northern Iowa's Anthony James. 

That was only the Blue Jays third loss overall this season, and second in Missouri Valley Conference play.

Despite that setback, Creighton continues to play excellent defensive basketball. The Blue Jays have five of their last six opponents to fewer than 70 points. Illinois State was the only team to break through that barrier, in a game where the Jays emptied their bench in a 28-point victory (we won w/ Creighton in that game). 

While Creighton is known as a high-powered offensive team that loves to push the pace, the fact is, the 'under' has cashed at a 4-1-1 clip in its last five contests. Save for that 102-point outburst against Illinois State, it's not as if the Blue Jays have been scoring at will lately. They've been held to 77 points or less in five of their last six games.

Evansville saw its string of six consecutive 'over' results come to an end in Saturday's narrow 53-52 loss at Southern Illinois. 

While the Purple Aces own an ugly set of defensive numbers, they've actually performed much better at home in MVC play, limiting five of their six opponents to fewer than 70 points. Only Illinois State was able to eclipse that number, in a game that still reached only 150 points, staying 'under' tonight's posted total.

In fact, only one of Evansville's six conference home games has surpassed the number we're working with tonight in regulation time.

These two teams hooked up twice last season, with those games totaling 143 and 144 points. Personnel-wise, both squads remain similar. With that being said, the oddsmakers are expecting a different result, adjusting this total northward by 23 points from the closing number in their most recent meeting nearly a year ago to the day. 

For the most part, the 'over' results we've seen from the Blue Jays this year have come in games that have resulted in blowout victories. Evansville should be able to stay somewhat competitive in this contest, as it has all season here at home. I'm banking on both defenses playing well enough to keep this one 'under' the inflated total.
 
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Posted: #88
also like texas tech and the points 

I just do not think the Wildcats are deserving to be this big a favorite. It's a value play, simple as that. The Red Raiders covered the exact same number in an away game at Texas last week, as well as covering a bigger number at Mizzou a week prior. You also thrown in covering as a double digit underdogs at both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, and suddenly Texas Tech doesn't look as bad as perhaps their record suggests. Sure they are winless in Big 12 play, but we're on them to cover, not win outright. Plus, it doesn't exactly hurt that they are due for a league victory all the more. Also, looking at this line from the other team, this is the largest Kansas State has been favored all season. So why is it now after losing two of their last three and going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in the conference. Doesn't make sense to me. I can only say the number is wrong and much too inflated. Grab Texas Tech and the number in Manhattan.
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by lbreno:

I'd like to know if offensive efficiency numbers help with totals.  The opening line total for Fla/Ky was 131.  Now it's 142.5.  If I took pace out of the discussion and just looked at points scored in Fla games, they've only had one game over 142.5 in 2012 (they only had one or two under that this season in 2011).  The one game was USC, where both teams combined for 48 three attempts, and 21 made (44%).  It looks to me like with Kentucky's defense, that opening line wasn't too far off and the under is the play.



Where did you see the UF/UK opening total at 131?  I see it opening at 142, then going up a half a point.
 
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Posted: #90

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTime41885:

Love your florida play, might be crazy for saying it, but I don't believe kentucky even makes the elite 8 this year, still feel they are very beatable especially against a billy donovan team. Also agree 3 ball will be crucial tonight, they'll get the open looks, just a matter of knocking them down.

 

Anything is possible on any given day, but it's going to take something crazy to happen for UK not to make it to the Elite 8. The fan support will make every one of their games like a home game.

 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by lbreno:

I'd like to know if offensive efficiency numbers help with totals.  The opening line total for Fla/Ky was 131.  Now it's 142.5.  If I took pace out of the discussion and just looked at points scored in Fla games, they've only had one game over 142.5 in 2012 (they only had one or two under that this season in 2011).  The one game was USC, where both teams combined for 48 three attempts, and 21 made (44%).  It looks to me like with Kentucky's defense, that opening line wasn't too far off and the under is the play.


I think covers is wrong with the 131 opening line. If you look at the line history, betonline has been the only shop to open at the 131. Not sure if they did or not, but these two teams haven't been lined below 134 in recent meetings (for no reason other than the efficient offenses both teams have had).
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by mnvikings1:

evansville/creighton under...

Creighton suffered a rare loss on Saturday, dropping a 65-62 decision on a last-second three-pointer from Northern Iowa's Anthony James. 

That was only the Blue Jays third loss overall this season, and second in Missouri Valley Conference play.

Despite that setback, Creighton continues to play excellent defensive basketball. The Blue Jays have five of their last six opponents to fewer than 70 points. Illinois State was the only team to break through that barrier, in a game where the Jays emptied their bench in a 28-point victory (we won w/ Creighton in that game). 

While Creighton is known as a high-powered offensive team that loves to push the pace, the fact is, the 'under' has cashed at a 4-1-1 clip in its last five contests. Save for that 102-point outburst against Illinois State, it's not as if the Blue Jays have been scoring at will lately. They've been held to 77 points or less in five of their last six games.

Evansville saw its string of six consecutive 'over' results come to an end in Saturday's narrow 53-52 loss at Southern Illinois. 

While the Purple Aces own an ugly set of defensive numbers, they've actually performed much better at home in MVC play, limiting five of their six opponents to fewer than 70 points. Only Illinois State was able to eclipse that number, in a game that still reached only 150 points, staying 'under' tonight's posted total.

In fact, only one of Evansville's six conference home games has surpassed the number we're working with tonight in regulation time.

These two teams hooked up twice last season, with those games totaling 143 and 144 points. Personnel-wise, both squads remain similar. With that being said, the oddsmakers are expecting a different result, adjusting this total northward by 23 points from the closing number in their most recent meeting nearly a year ago to the day. 

For the most part, the 'over' results we've seen from the Blue Jays this year have come in games that have resulted in blowout victories. Evansville should be able to stay somewhat competitive in this contest, as it has all season here at home. I'm banking on both defenses playing well enough to keep this one 'under' the inflated total.

You make some good points. I think teams have been trying to slow them down which is why you see the low point totals both offensively and defensively (another reason is that they're distributing minutes a bit more resting guys in games where they've had big leads). Evansville can't slow the pace tonight, or they won't score. If they do, I think I'm a loser there.
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by mnvikings1:

also like texas tech and the points 

I just do not think the Wildcats are deserving to be this big a favorite. It's a value play, simple as that. The Red Raiders covered the exact same number in an away game at Texas last week, as well as covering a bigger number at Mizzou a week prior. You also thrown in covering as a double digit underdogs at both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, and suddenly Texas Tech doesn't look as bad as perhaps their record suggests. Sure they are winless in Big 12 play, but we're on them to cover, not win outright. Plus, it doesn't exactly hurt that they are due for a league victory all the more. Also, looking at this line from the other team, this is the largest Kansas State has been favored all season. So why is it now after losing two of their last three and going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in the conference. Doesn't make sense to me. I can only say the number is wrong and much too inflated. Grab Texas Tech and the number in Manhattan.

I can see the value. Just not trusting that offense (which has gone over 60 just once in the conference). Kansas State wanted to run with them the first meeting, no reason they change up anything here.
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTime41885:

might be crazy for saying it, but I don't believe kentucky even makes the elite 8 this year

I'd say you're crazy 
 
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Posted: #95
thanks Neil for getting back to me on the question and good luck.

Not going to force a play tonight.
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


Yah, Ohio State has been awfully impressive at home in the conference. About as far as I got into this match-up. Seems like Purdue might have a shot to stay in the game if they can hit some perimeter shots. They're missing a piece or two this year, but they have some shooters. Shots just haven't fallen.

Tough game, think the # is dead on.

GL

 

 

Hey bud, how you been?  I've been on a hiatus...1st post this year so it should just be this...

 

Go Bucks!

 

 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by MENACE:

 

 

Hey bud, how you been?  I've been on a hiatus...1st post this year so it should just be this...

 

Go Bucks!

 


Haha. What's up big guy?

BP3!!!!
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


 
BP3!!!!
 

 

 

My only loss in the last 7 games was on I-L-L Sunday so  BP3 and co...lol.

 

 

I've been good man.  Hope all has been well with you.  Trying to force a play on tonights card somewhere but having a tough time.  Never a bad thing taking a night off though.  Like your analysis for tonight, but can't trust those streak-shooting Gator guards (although your analysis makes perfect sense).  As for the Evansville game...I had UNI Saturday beating Creighton and figured I'd either have Creighton bouncing back or no play tonight, but your Evansville thoughts definitely are intruiging.

 

I do agree with you on your Bama play and do think I will end up playing them...

 
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Posted: #99
nropp, what do you think about my bets todays? obviously know u dont like the kentucky play.. but teased to 2 and them not losing at home made me go that way.

Date PlacedTicket#SportGameDateDescriptionRisk/Win
Feb 07 03:45 PM 
by: INTERNET		25054743
CBB
CBB
CBB
Feb 07 07:05 PM 
Feb 07 07:05 PM 
Feb 07 08:05 PM		3TEAS FB 10, 10½, 11 NBA 8, 8½, 9 CBB 7, 7½, 8 PTS
[713] IOWA STATE +9-110 (B+7)
[716] KENTUCKY -2-110 (B+7)
[719] CREIGHTON +1½-110 (B+7)
120/100
Feb 07 03:48 PM 
by: INTERNET		25054798
CBB
Feb 07 07:05 PM		STRAIGHT BET
[717] MARYLAND +9-110
80/72

 
 
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Posted: #100
i cant believe your not on maryland also with how much you dislike clemsons play

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