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Tourney freackin' Time

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Posted: #26
so i guess you could say MSU wont cover a lot huh?
 
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Posted: #27
full game spreads that is
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by gollum:



I know the Spartans can run, appling can Beep Beep with the best of them, but I just question the differing energy levels a team that just won the big 10 tournament and earned their # 1 seed, Vs a 16 seed who stayed within striking distance of a 1 seed last year and has nothing to lose and something to prove. You do make a good point on the spartans showing up for most every game, and covering large spreads this year.  and after I posted earlier I went back to see how Izzo has done as a large favorite in the tourney. I found that the spartans are 1-1 ats as dd favs recently and 4-3 since 97. I kinda have a feeling though that with the injury of Dawson and even Kalin a couple years ago izzo will be cautious as soon as the game gets ugly to hopefully keep healthy and may allow LIU to make a run towards a respectable score late. Either way I have live betting at my book so I may wait to see how it plays out for a while before making any plays. Good Luck. Go Green!


Yeah, I definitely see where you're coming from on the difference in energy levels, and like you said in your previous post, it's only human nature after watching the Mem/Stl game to look ahead a bit to Sunday, so I can see reasons to bet LIU.  Also, no question, if the game is in hand late, I would imagine Izzo to empty the bench, ultimately giving LIU a great shot at the backdoor.  I just can't ignore the fact that MSU has just completely ran so many teams right off the court this season.  I think they've spent the last 5 days hearing how most of the entire free world has Mizzou in the Final Four, and that could motivate them too.  All of these factors make it so hard to bet these huge lines in a tournament format.  I made add something late, but as of right now, just gonna stay away.  
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by SiuLungBao:

full game spreads that is



Personally, I very rarely lay much more than a dozen for a full game, been backdoored way too many times.  
 
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Posted: #30
Well now that you have potentially talked me off a bet I didn't really want to make, I'm hoping you can do the same again and let me know what you like about Belmont today. I really think Georgetown wins this one, but it does looks like it has trap written all over it. My main reasoning behind Gtown is the defense. A team like Belmont can win or lose any game depending on how they shoot from deep. They are tied for 9th most 3s made per game in the country and 37th in 3pt percentage. But if I'm picking a 3 pt shooting cinderella I'd prefer not to do it against the best 3pt defense in the country, only allowing 26.6% for opponents 3pters. They are ranked 7th in def eff, and also have the height and rebounding advantage, not to mention a much more difficult SOS. I know Belmont was within a point of beating Duke, but that was 4 months ago, and besides the 18 pt loss to memphis the next game, they haven't played another tourney team. I am also aware they have won 14 straight, but again not much competition in those wins that I am aware of. I will admit I have not seen them play a single game since last year vs wisco in the tournament, but I really feel like this game will be more similar to that game than it will be to Georgetowns last 2 less than stellar tourney appearances.
 
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Posted: #31
gollum-

I'm not trying to talk you out of taking LIU, in fact gun-to-my head, I take their full-game line over MSU's full-game line.  I just won't be doing it due to MSU's ability to make huge runs and just go for the jugular when it's available.  

My take on Belmont is that they're an experienced and balanced team and I just think Georgetown is soooooo susceptible to being upset.  I haven't been impressed with GU at all when I've seen them play and then, like you pointed out, this is an awfully low line for a #3 vs #14, which was the icing on the cake.  

Good luck with whatever you decide, but either way, these are not real strong vibes for me in either game.  
 
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Posted: #32
Adding:

Virginia/Florida UNDER 56.5 1st half
 
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Posted: #33
bense so far i went 3-1 this morning

i had

cinci
nc state
belmont
creighton
 
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Posted: #34
MSU is -11 1st half

thats pretty high....i hate DD 1st halves...

great call on the gators
 
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Posted: #35
Memphis -2 (2nd half)
 
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Posted: #36
i got STL for +3.5 for game

= (
 
 
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Posted: #37
im glad you convinced me to stay off MSU game....or even 1st half

what a close game
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