Nice 2-0 day Thursday with one alert and one non-alert play both hitting. I studied this game for hours last night, hacked into the Arkansas subscription-only website and poured over the numbers. Now that the line has dropped off the table and is now down to 143 on Matchbook I am on the OVER in this matchup.
Since Courtney Fortson returned to the razorback lineup two games ago, Ark is playing an even faster tempo with both games SOARING over this total number.
Alabama's head coach has already said that they plan on trapping, pressing, and pushing the offensive tempo in this game as they have had one more day of rest than Arkansas and have a deeper rotation.
Both teams have had a resurgence in post play and have been getting consistent numbers in the paint.
Alabama's defensive numbers as of late are completely inflated as they have played #'s 188, 257, 317, 165 in four of their last five games.
Alabama's and Arkansas's head coaches were both assistant's on Billy Donavon's staff and they know how to attack each other defenses (Arkansas especially will attack the Alabama pressure).
Both teams block shots and create turnovers above the national average and with their aggressive styles of play they both send their opponents to the line a nice number of times.
I expect this to be a close game and hope that their will be some late fouling going on as well. Arkansas especially is going to come out aggressive as they have played poorly at the beginning of games as of late. I believe they set the tempo early and this game really gets going.
I like what I have been reading from both team's players and coaches and I expect an up and down battle today.
This play is not for the faint of heart and if Arkansas is either (a) discouraged from yet another close loss Thursday or (b) legs are gassed from the battle with Miss st then I could see this game going under the number. But Arkansas has been playing much tougher competition and have held their own with UAB, Texas, and Miss St in their last three and I am confident they will be right in the thick of this game as well. But I acknowledge that this game could go way under as well if it played at a certain tempo, I don't feel that this happens today.
1-unit OVER 143 on Matchbook
Good luck with whatever you choose







