Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 56-57, +2.20
December Leans: 55-61
Juiced yesterday w/ another ML loss. I will learn one day. Leans were 1-8. That is a good thing. Could have been a bad day. Got pretty much exactly what I wanted with the plays. UTEP sucked, which I was scared about the travel, but they shut CSU down from the 3-point line and forced 17 turnovers on them. Nova played a good 35 minutes of basketball and WVU hit their free throws for once. Pointed out that if the OSU under didn't cash it would be because they would stomp on Northwestern, that obviously happened. And Buffalo/Temple I was probably off on, although that game started out at a snail's pace before the ultimate scoring up and down lightswitch turned on.
As for Thursday's bloodbath:
Akron has a bit of revenge from a bracket-buster game two years ago, but the landscape in terms of personnel has changed a bit from that 70-53 VCU victory. A little history on Shaka - He was an assistant coach with Dambrot at Akron before Dambrot was chosen for the head job, with Shaka being the first assistant at that time for two years. Shaka knows everything Dambrot wants to do, and he has the personnel in place to combat it. There are a few things that take presidence in this matchup. Akron's without their starting PG, as he tore his MCL and it out for a month. They played without him last game against a cupcake, so this will be the first test without him. They haven't really played anyone for the better part of the last half of the month. Back to the PG slot, they don't really have a true PG to fill in. They have a few shooters, and they get a bit more size with the projected lineup, but they don't have a guy that is designed to distribute. Insert Briante Weber...again. If you read the VCU/Richmond analysis, you would have noticed the hard-on I get watching him from a defensive standpoint, and he'll be on whoever Akron runs at the PG slot here. And that's not a good thing. Aside from Weber, VCU has really come along defensively. They currently have three guards who are ranked in the top 150 out of around 3,850 in forcing turnovers. Akron not having a PG sort of makes matters worse here. When I look at Akron, they're built strong on the inside with Marshall, and a couple others, as a majority of their offense filters through the post. Here's the problem. Akron's playing extremely fast this year. They're playing more people than Dembrot generally plays and they're getting a bit more up and down. When you do that, you can't really focus on the inside game which is their strength. If you've watched VCU this year, they like to run when they get the chance and they should do that here in this game to take the bigs out of the mix. I've covered the guard defense, so let's take a look at the interior defense which will be needed here, and VCU has it. Both Reddic and Haley hit the board nationally in terms of rebounding defensively and block percentage, so I like the matchup there. This game really comes down to one thing in the end. VCU's guards don't turn the ball over, and at the same time they force turnovers and pressure like crazy. Akron's best offense filters through the post, but if your guards are being pressured out of position, how do you get the ball into the post? And if you get the ball into the post, do you struggle to score? Clearly, Akron has a big home court advantage and revenge, but with the matchups, and the fact that Shaka knows Dambrot like the back of his hand, along with the fact that the best defensive guard in the country will be guarding a guy who has no experience playing PG, this just sets itself up to be a disastrous spot for Akron. They have had trouble taking care of the ball in all of their losses, and that problem doesn't get any better when you have people playing out of position.
3* VCU -1
There will be more, lots.
GL
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