That's really the problem. UL Lafayette had some pretty bad losses prior to last night's game as well. The UNLV game has no bearing whatsoever on this game. It's really two totally different brands of basketball, and the defensive philosophy of UNLV is 100% different. Really, this is the difference between me and you. I look for value and invest on value based on what I forecast to happen in the future. It's impossible to base value on something that happened a week ago, or even find value for that matter unless you're comparing two different teams.
If you even look at the UNLV game (which I called as a UNLV victory weeks in advance), the one thing that sticks out is that they weren't afraid to run with them, they actually made it a point to do so, and that's something Weber has preached for the past few years. They have not been able to guard quick athletic guards in the half court since they lost Brown/Head/Williams, and even then I could make a strong argument that they didn't defend all that well in the half court. So, yah, on paper Illinois is at a great disadvantage in the half court tonight.
The problem is, and here's where the play comes to fruition, is that if they aren't afraid to run with UNLV, why will they be afraid to run here? They won't, and Weber has shown no resistance to running. He knows it as well as any guy who watches them play. In a slow setting, the defense is exposed to a greater degree, so he speed things up and take that out of the equation. It's that simple. It's their biggest weakness, and when you face a Missouri team that shows no hesitation whatsoever to run, it's a given that this game should and will be up and down.
Now, sure they'll be instances where this game comes down to scoring in the half court for Missouri, and they'll have an advantage in those cases, but it's not as big of as an advantage as one would think. The guards are good, in fact, the top 7 or 8 that are good, and they're the only team that brings in a team with 6 or 7 guys with an offensive rating above 100. That in itself is scary, I can agree with that. But, they're better scoring in the paint and off the dribble than they are from the outside, and that's a proven fact. That's another part to the story. Illinois will bring in the best defensive interior they have faced, and they're going to have to rely on the outside shot a bit more than they have in order to put points up, especially in an up and down scenario which I feel it will be. Leonard in the paint is far different than anything they have driven into this year.
From an offensive standpoint, I'm a little concerned with Illinois, but again, only in the half court scenario. They will rotate enough guards with speed and quickness to get up and down and get some good looks in transition. But really, the difference maker is Griffey. Where does Missouri have the ability to come out and defend him? I can't find it. Who defends him? I'm not sure. But it's another situation where I feel Illinois has an advantage. Bring Griffey on the perimeter, and you're either going to have to sag off of Paul or Richardson and double on Leonard, or leave Leonard to be guarded by a guy four inches smaller.
The game comes down to one thing. People look at Missouri's offense and the Illinois offense and it's like comparing apples to oranges, which it is, if you don't factor in the way this game is going to be played. When you do that, you realize that some of the weaknesses for one team is taken away, while the strength of another is taken away. Can Illinois get blown out here? Sure, it's probably more probable than them getting an outright win. But it's also the reason that there is some value in this game. If this game isn't the fast up and down, this is a loser. I just have seen little proof that it won't be played that way.
Win or Lose,
GL
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