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Thursday 1/5 CBB Plays

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JFen31

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 12:13 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by lmontalv:

Jfen:

Here's some insight on the UCLA side... howland is one of the best coaches in basketball preparing his teams when given the time.. since the pac12 plays thurs/sat games in conference you'll see that typically UCLA is better prepared for the thurs game vs sat game... Back in the FF runs Howland had the teams that were just so good it didn't really matter as much... The current roster is not void of talent, just not anywhere close to what UCLA has had in the past... UCLA/Zona is a big game for many reasons (recruiting especially) and you can bet Howland is really breaking down the film for this match up... It's going to be guards against bigs... Arizona really doesn't have an answer for Josh Smith but Smith has not played well all year so that's a wild card... UCLA will probably play zone seeing that their man to man def is bad (if ucla tries to play man Zona will kill them)... AZ is perimeter oriented team with not much size up front, well size that has experience... should be a close game and i'm thinking ucla has to be pretty desperate at this juncture needing a win bad... my guess would be to take ucla seeing that it's a thurs game at home and basically a pick em...

Excellent info. I've heard that about Howland previously as well and it could explain tonight's spread. I like desperate teams and UCLA should be as desperate as any tonight.

JFen31

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Posts: 8308

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 12:15 PM ET #27

Middle Tennessee @ Troy +8.5 (1 unit)
Fordham @ UMASS Over 139 (1.5 units)

These are from yesterday. One good number, one bad number. More to come shortly.

Bighurt

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Posts: 1585

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 12:22 PM ET #28

jfen do u have a take on washington @ colorado....washington is improving as the season goes but i cant get that loss @ nevada out of my head and this being their 1st trip to boulder i was leaning colorado and the points.....what do u think?

Kaka123

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 12:24 PM ET #29

Do you have a lean for the Michigan vs Indiana game.

GWarner27

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 12:34 PM ET #30

Notes as I go (thanks for the time btw)
-Illinois is not purdue's archrival
-Malik Wayns doesn't scare me at all as a likely USF backer
-ucla hosts Arizona in anaheim tonight

JFen31

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Posts: 8308

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 12:44 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

Notes as I go (thanks for the time btw)
-Illinois is not purdue's archrival
-Malik Wayns doesn't scare me at all as a likely USF backer
-ucla hosts Arizona in anaheim tonight

Is it Indiana then? I've always thought Illinois-Purdue was a reasonably good rivalry. Could be wrong, obviously.

I think I mentioned UCLA not having a real HCA. Probably will be a decent sized Arizona contingent present.

P4P

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 1:31 PM ET #32

Perhaps I missed them, but any thoughts on the Troy game? Something obviously stood out if you jumped on this early. I see they're 4-1 at home, with the one loss coming by less than the number of points you're catching with them tonight, but the level of competition has been a lot lower than Mid Tenn St.

gbpackman

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 1:36 PM ET #33

The game is being played at the Honda Center in Anaheim about 43 miles away

JFen31

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 1:37 PM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by P4P:

Perhaps I missed them, but any thoughts on the Troy game? Something obviously stood out if you jumped on this early. I see they're 4-1 at home, with the one loss coming by less than the number of points you're catching with them tonight, but the level of competition has been a lot lower than Mid Tenn St.

Like most Sun Belt teams, Troy is a completely different animal at home. I really like their non-conference schedule as they played only 3 teams ranked 200 or lower per KenPom and played a really diverse range of styles. Two road losses to Denver and North Texas were expected to open conference play, but I expect a much better effort tonight in the home conference opener. MTSU is good and much better than anyone expected but in a potential look-ahead to a Saturday game @ ULL, one of the preseason favorites. Big trap game for Middle Tennessee and one Troy really needs to get to try and stay afloat. Selling high on MTSU.

P4P

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 1:43 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Like most Sun Belt teams, Troy is a completely different animal at home. I really like their non-conference schedule as they played only 3 teams ranked 200 or lower per KenPom and played a really diverse range of styles. Two road losses to Denver and North Texas were expected to open conference play, but I expect a much better effort tonight in the home conference opener. MTSU is good and much better than anyone expected but in a potential look-ahead to a Saturday game @ ULL, one of the preseason favorites. Big trap game for Middle Tennessee and one Troy really needs to get to try and stay afloat. Selling high on MTSU.

Seems reasonable to me - thanks and BOL on the play

JFen31

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 1:54 PM ET #36

Stanford @ Oregon -1 (1.5 units)

johncapper750

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Posts: 1828

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 1:54 PM ET #37

My book has the Forham total up to 142.5 is it still safe or do you see it going back down before game time?

Sick write ups man keep up the hard work! You are a covers asset

GWarner27

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:08 PM ET #38

Agree with Oregon just not sure about their offense keeping up with the perimeter shooters if UO can't stop Owens...

It's Illinois-northwestern and Indiana-purdue

Bobcat36

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:19 PM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

I think I mentioned UCLA not having a real HCA. Probably will be a decent sized Arizona contingent present.

It's even worse than that. ZERO HCA due to Pauley being updated and less than zero at Anaheim. Add to that, any students that WOULD make the trip aren't back on campus til the 9th.

JFen31

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:21 PM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by johncapper750:

My book has the Forham total up to 142.5 is it still safe or do you see it going back down before game time?

Sick write ups man keep up the hard work! You are a covers asset

Seems very unlikely for it to go down. If you like it, take a shot. Better now than 144 or 145.

johncapper750

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:25 PM ET #41

Thanks for the response JFen I'm going to sprinkle a unit on it to top of my card.

BOL to you and the rest of your plays

JFen31

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Posts: 8308

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:30 PM ET #42

-Great article on the Charleston-Wofford game from a COC perspective:

https://www.postandcourier.com/news/2012/jan/05/wofford-next-test-for-college-of-charleston/

-Passing on UCLA. Love the spot but too many unknowns.

-Waiting on the Michigan-Indiana game to see if Will Sheehey plays. They've been alright without him, but his presence would make a huge difference in guarding Smotrycz and Novak. Also hoping to get a +8 on Michigan.

-Also waiting on Penn State. Lots of Purdue love hopefully continues to drive the line upwards.

AnzexFropitar

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Posts: 265

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:36 PM ET #43

With EWU's fouling problems and Weber St being so good at the line, would you say the OVER is worth a look in that game? If EWU lives and dies by the 3, if a few fall in, should be a good chance of going over... right?

JFen31

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Posts: 8308

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:55 PM ET #44

Current Card
Fordham @ UMASS Over 139 (1.5 units)
Stanford @ Oregon -1 (1.5 units)
Charleston -1 @ Wofford (1 unit)
Middle Tennessee @ Troy +8.5 (1 unit)

Leans:
Michigan +7.5, UMASS -12.5, Penn State 1H +4, Weber State +3.5

JFen31

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Posts: 8308

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:57 PM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by AnzexFropitar:

With EWU's fouling problems and Weber St being so good at the line, would you say the OVER is worth a look in that game? If EWU lives and dies by the 3, if a few fall in, should be a good chance of going over... right?

Yup, I would lean that way. Lone concern is that this is probably a really tight game with a decent change of minimal fouling at the end of the game. Tough call with EWU's reliance on the outside shot, but as you said, if they hit a decent percentage, it should go over.

gbpackman

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 3:09 PM ET #46

I am a longtime UA fan. (born in Tucson, 1958) Arizona's Kyryl Natyazhko C 6-11 275 LBS was a cough the 1st 8 games.

UA started out slowly because guy played too much. He can't shoot, rebound or play defense. He has no style and NO aggressiveness. (reminds me of myself!! lol) I think the only reason he is on the team is to get the tip. Now the coach knows his style and limits his play. THATS why UA started out slowly for a #16 team.

UA has a SEVERE revenge factor here. They were blown out at Pauley last year with Derrick Williams! They keyed on him and he went 5-11 FG.

UA has beaten the spread 4-5 of the last games. They are underated for the facts mentioned above. UAs power ranking is 29. UCLAs power ranking is 192!

UCLA got a beatdown by CAL. I say AZ by 8

andreagassi6969

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Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 3:15 PM ET #47

NavyRB23

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Posts: 2555

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 3:19 PM ET #48

Just wanted to say THANK YOU for all you do here. Keep up the GREAT work...hope you have a fantastic 2012!

sloop703

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Posts: 3277

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 3:21 PM ET #49

I'm also on Troy, but just for the first half. Not sure they can hang for the full 40 though. MTSU's good at defending the three and Troy relies on it for 40% of their point distribution. Doesn't bode well for them.

Like Oregon as well, but don't have the balls to play it. Good luck.

bogey533

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Posts: 1164

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 3:22 PM ET #50

I follow almost every B1G game and hope this info helps in the Penn St. Purdue matchup. I agree with your analysis that Purdue wont play hard the whole game and Penn St will cover due the 2nd half and being at home.

Purdue last 4 away games have been outscored. The talent was not close to Penn St as Butler Xavier and Alabama are all talented teams. Iowa outplayed them 2nd half which shows me no killer instinct. They finally played a good game against Ilinois and excellent balanced scoring but I have mentioned Illinois has showed me nothing in conference play.

Penn St played well against Mich 2nd half and got blowout by N.W. last game both on the road. First game at home in conference and have played everybody tough at home and see the same tonite.

Look last year Purdue had one of the best 2 combo's in E'twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson with no Hummel. Because of this everybody played better than this year. Jackson had those 2 to take him out of trouble and could drive because they had to defend. Barlow I think is very athletic and like his game and D.J. Byrd was very effective coming off the bench last year and this year nothing. Like you say a younger much less talented team with no killer instinct because they dont have the players.

Penn St. has Frazier a true player who is only double digit scorer but 6 other decent players. They dont shoot the ball very well but are competive at home shoot ft's and will play tough as they wont outscore anybody in the conference.

I'm playing Penn St its at +7 -115 now and think it will stay at that number. O/U I have at 126 and seriously considering the under as a strong play here. Anyway thanks for all your great information as I know many people like myself look forward to your thread. Best of luck on your plays tonite.

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