Okay, my account is working a little better even though my posting total is all but eliminated. Let's preview the MVC and the conference I watch the most.
Let's start with history. I'm with EddyMush when he says that he likes Bradley if Ruffin plays. Well, Ruffin is cleared to play until his domestic case is resolved (i.e., he is playing the rest of the season). However, Creighton has won the Valley tourney 6 times since 1999. No other team has won more than once. Do you really want to bet against Creighton is this tourney? Me neither.
On to the play-in games on Thursday. Since 2000, in the 8 seed versus 9 seed game, the 9 seed is 6-2. The Thursday match-up is #9 Wichita State versus #8 Indiana State. I really like Wichita State here. They have played really well since the return on PG Matt Brauer, and Gregg Marshall won 8 of his last 9 conference tourneys during his tenure at Winthrop. I expect this line to be around PK to WSU by 3 and will likely roll WSU. Indiana State is also arguably the worst team in the conference away from home.
In the 10/7 match-up, the #10 seed is actually 4-3 in this game since 2000. But there have rarely been teams as good as Missouri State in the 7 spot. Missouri State has won 3 in a row, is finally a little healthy for the first time since November, and will have some swagger with coach Barry Hinson likely out after the season. I see this spread as being MSU by about 8 and think they kill Evansville tomorrow.
Quarterfinal Games on Friday:
Creighton/Bradley: As I said earlier, I have a feeling that Bradley comes back to win after their epic game last Saturday in which Creighton won 111-110 in 2OT's. However, given Creighton's tourney history, I will stay far, far away from this game. I can see this spread being a PK to Creighton by 2. No play.
Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois: Talk about two teams that are completely schizophrenic. But Southern is playing better ball than Northern Iowa, and unless UNI shoots lights out, this is Southern's game to lose. I am hoping for something under 5 points with the spread. If it is, I'll play Southern. They have made the semifinals of this tournament for 6 straight years.
Drake/WSU-Indiana State winner: If WSU wins, I really like the way they match up with Drake. They had only 8 scholarship players on Saturday AT Drake and were in the game until the end when Drake pulled away on fouls and won by 10. I think Drake wins this game, but if the spread is 8 or more in favor of Drake, I'm taking WSU. If it is under 4, I would lean Drake. Anything in between is a stay away. If the game matches Drake against Indiana State, I would play Drake all the way up to 14 points.
Illinois St./Missouri State-Evansville winner: This game is really interesting. I think Missouri State has a shot here to win outright if they can survive the first round against Evansville. Again, Missouri State will be playing with nothing to lose all tourney long and no expectations or pressure, so they are dangerous. If it is MSU, I would expect the spread to be 6 or 7 in favor of Ill. St., and I'll roll MSU here. If it is Evansville I'll play Illinois State up to a fairly high number.
A look ahead:
I expect a Creighton-Drake and Missouri State-Southern Illinois matchup. Bradley can win the tourney outright, however, and Illinois State is good enough to win the entire thing as well. Hell, given Gregg Marshall's record with Winthrop in conference tourneys, who is to say they can't make noise.
I can honestly see about 7 different teams playing in the semifinal games just like any other conference tourney. I'll come back to this thread on Friday night once the quarterfinals are completed. In the meantime, best of luck with the Thursday and Friday games. I hope this information is somewhat helpful. I'm about 67% on Valley games this year, although I had a bad Saturday so take it with a grain of salt.
Hot Forum Topics
