IMPOSSIBLE UVA scores 50 here. Not joking here. Their offense is too garbage!
People will think this will be a close down to wire game. No they are absolutely wrong. This will be a fairly easy win for Texas Tech.
Game will be a copy of the MSU win. Close game for most part but then Tech makes a run and creates a 8-12 pt lead and then Virginia never comes back. Live bets will be as high Tech -6.5,-7.5 in game and bettors will jump on UVA live, but then they'll lose all those bets because Tech will win by a pretty big margin in the end.
These bad tendencies for UVA and reasons are why:
1. UVA naturally bricks hard and goes on droughts EVERY GAME. Even against weaker defenses. It's inevitable. You will see graphics pop up on the screen like '0 FG in last 6 mins' or '2pts in last 8 mins' for UVA when they play. That's what they do. Their offense/execution needs to be perfect here vs TT and that's not going to happen. Tech doesn't allow you to execute and for your offense to flow. They've shut down much more explosive offenses than UVA, their defense is consistent and shows up every game.
2. UVA does NOT put away teams. Last 3 games all down to wire. Don't confuse this UVA team as that team that was winning by big margins and grinding down teams in the ACC. Many of those wins was against absolutely SUCK teams like ND, BC, Wake, etc.. ACC had no depth. If UVA is really THAT good and dominant as people say they should have atleast won one of those last 3 games by a comfortable margin really.
UVA will never lead big and then win big. They might make a run and then lead by 7 or 9 but then their offense will sputter and allow the opponent back in the game. They invite themselves in for unnecessary close games and that's a very bad tendency to have coming into this game vs a dangerous Tech team.
Classic example last game UVA take a 10 pt lead late vs Auburn, you would think they would hold on but instead they don't score in the last 5 mins and allow Auburn to almost steal the game. While with Tech, it's the opposite when they lead big and have control, they just more disciplined and don't allow you to come back on them.
3. UVA has less offensive threats. And nobody else steps up and does anything to help w/ scoring apart from Guy/Jerome. Hunter hasn't done much, their bigs can't really score in low post. Role guys Kihei Clark, Braxton Key they are zero threat on offense also. Tech also not so great offense, but they've had different guys step up and come up with big performances. IMPOSSIBLE a Virginia role player comes up huge w/ a 18 or 20 pt game or hits consecutive big shots like how Tech players have been doing last few games. UVA just don't have that. Against Gonzaga it was Moretti, against MSU it was Mooney.
In conclusion, Virginia is too unbalanced. You are solely relying on 2 guys - Ty and Kyle to carry them.
Tech just been playing the better ball on both sides and I would take a team that plays better collectively as a team and that has Culver/Owens over UVA's team. Owens is probably the most valuable player of this whole damn tournament. He's been outstanding. Just his presence in the paint, shot blocking and ability to alter shots is going to give UVA nothing inside.
I don't buy this UVA team of destiny BS. Take Texas Tech here. Not a public underdog. Reputation of ACC being the best league makes public take betting favorite UVA with a small spread more likely.
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