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South Dakota State vs. Michigan... Thursday, March 21, 2013 @ 6:15 p.m. (Central)

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Legend
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Posted: #26
Good luck jesron!
 
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Posted: #27
Okay SDSU can only play the teams on their schedule.  The only teams they lost to that made the tournament was Minnesota and Belmont.  Wolters did not play versus Minnesota and was limited versus Belmont.  That makes a big difference.  Please also note that the Jacks played 4 teams that made the tournament and all four games were on the road.

Riddle me this... when did Michigan beat Indiana, MSU and Wisconsin?  Michigan lost to Indiana twice.  MSU was in early March at home (but failed to cover the spread).  Wisconsin was home in early February (but failed to cover the spread).  Notice a trend.  The last quality road or neutral court win was January (if you call Minnesota or Illinois a quality road win) or really November when then beat teams like Pittsburgh and K-State on a neutral court.  You have not been watching your team very closely if you think they are the same team that played back then.

There is tons, tons, tons more to rebounding than mere height.  If that was the case the 7 foot 5 340 pound center for New Mexico State would have more than 6 rebounds a game on average.  There is technique and form.  The Jacks shoot a pretty high percentage so that means the vast majority of their rebounds are defensive.  According to all you Michigan homers the Jacks play a crappy defense so that must mean they rebound pretty well.

I was referring to the Wisconsin game as I forgot about the Penn State game given how pathetic they are.  Michigan looked horrible against albeit a good team but what I took away from this team is how little heart they really have.  If the Jacks get up on this team I could honestly see them pack it in like they did against Wisconsin.  Before you ask yes I watched the whole game.

If you disagree with the write up give legitimate trends or stats that support your position then merely your general thoughts and observations.  As you can see I can do the same thing.  The difference is I provided both.  I am more than happy to debate it but give me something worth debating.
 
Legend
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

and your biggest weapon is going to have to deal with this....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqZFNvO5G30

how's that for no heart and failing to close out a big game?

Where was he against Indiana at home or Wisconsin in the conference tournament?  Hell Larry King picked the Jackrabbits that means we cannot lose right?
 
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Posted: #29
Bol, Jesron.
 
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Posted: #30
We were beating Wisconsin in Wisconsin until Brust hit a 3 pointer from half court to force overtime.

Not beating MSU, Indiana, Ohio St, or Wisconsin on their home floor is no sweat off of my back.  Big 10 is brutal.

Of course rebounding isn't just height, but it's hard to rebound well in the Big 10.  Lots of quality big men.

And sure Penn St is horrible, but so is South Dakota (10-20) and CSU Bakersfield (14-16) who you lost to.  Oh and your run through the Summit tourney included 2 wins over IUPUI (6-26) and IPFW (16-17) before you played an actual decent opponent.  Who you basically played in your home state.

I'm not saying SDSU can't cover, or even possibly pull off an upset.  But your write up was one sided and didn't cover every angle.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

We were beating Wisconsin in Wisconsin until Brust hit a 3 pointer from half court to force overtime.

Not beating MSU, Indiana, Ohio St, or Wisconsin on their home floor is no sweat off of my back.  Big 10 is brutal.

Of course rebounding isn't just height, but it's hard to rebound well in the Big 10.  Lots of quality big men.

And sure Penn St is horrible, but so is South Dakota (10-20) and CSU Bakersfield (14-16) who you lost to.  Oh and your run through the Summit tourney included 2 wins over IUPUI (6-26) and IPFW (16-17) before you played an actual decent opponent.  Who you basically played in your home state.

I'm not saying SDSU can't cover, or even possibly pull off an upset.  But your write up was one sided and didn't cover every angle.

Dan if you read my post you would have noticed that I said I will post additional thoughts later.  If you are familiar with my threads I add to it through the day.  I will never be able to cover every angle as those are endless.  I am merely posting the angles that I look at before I bet a game.  It may not always be right but it has worked well for me this season.  If you think I am missing angle as I have said before post them.  I have no problem debating them.  It makes the thread better.  But you are being unrealistic if you think I can cover every possible angle.
 
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Posted: #32
What I'm saying is, you brought up a point without fully expanding on it.  Comparing defensive numbers and beating teams with winning records without discussing strength of schedule is a little misleading.

best of luck 
 
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Posted: #33


Fellas take it easy. They will settle it soon on the court.
 
Legend
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Posted: #34

Here are some more interesting trends I found (both the good and the bad):

Big Ten is 11-2 ATS the past three years in the second round.

South Dakota State is the #43 most experience team in country, while Michigan is #338.

Michigan went 6-6 in last 12 games, after starting season 20-1; but six of its seven losses came vs top 10 teams.

Michigan is 2-1 in first round under Beilein, winning by 3-30, with dog covering all three games- they lost as 4-seed to Ohio LY.

Last seven years, #4 seeds are 17-11 vs spread in this round.

Summit League teams are 0-5 last five years, 2-3 vs spread, losing by 19-10-23-4-8 points, all as 13-14 seeds.

When I find more I will post it.  Still really like the Jacks ATS.  As you can tell I am too chicken $hit to put money on the ML but I will be hoping for it to come in.  I expect to put 4 units full game ATS; 2 units 1H ATS; parlay with the full game under; already played the Wolters prop bet.  BOL!

 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by Trey_Burke:

I'll be on the Michigan Wolverines!

LOL... thanks Trey_Burke... cannot talk you into a little point shaving can I?

 
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Posted: #36
GL Today Jes, have you locked in a play yet on the Jackrabbits?
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by jesron1269:

LOL... thanks Trey_Burke... cannot talk you into a little point shaving can I?

Not yet.  Still hoping the line moves to 12.  I can get 11.5 right now online.  I will not be betting Michigan under any circumstances.  It will be the Jacks just waiting on my line.  Really hoping the line moves up.

 
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Posted: #38
Sorry mean to quote Theone324
 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by Trey_Burke:



Nope!  Trey Burke gonna go Bonkers today!  Watch out Nate Wolters!

We unfortunately Trey it appears Nate is not going to be guarding you.  It is my understanding that Braiden Carlson.  BOL!

 
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Posted: #40
^Well
 
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Posted: #41
I honestly think SDSU has the best chance for a big upset through all of these games. When Nate Wolters gets going, that team can beat anybody. They walked into one of the hardest home court advantages in the entire country and defeated New Mexico in every facet of the game. It can be argued that New Mexico is just as good as Michigan.
 
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Posted: #42
robbypark... they are certainly ranked higher and seeded higher (New Mexico over Michigan that is).  BOL today!
 
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Posted: #43

Locking in my plays now.  The line at my online book is 11.5 still and I see it moving down to 10.5 in some books.  I am going to buy a half and play the following:

South Dakota State +12 -120 risking 4.8 units to win 4 units

South Dakota State +6.5 1H risking 2.2 units to win 2 units

Under 141.5 risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

Already locked in Nate Wolters over 20.5 points +105 risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units

BOL!

 
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Posted: #44
bump


Agree 100%
 
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Posted: #45
thanks Train... BOL to you!
 
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Posted: #46
+ 12
ML 

Bol 
 
Legend
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Posted: #47
Mac Jumps & Hops on the JackRabbits bandwagon for good Measure

GL Jesron should be a Helluva game to watch on CBS
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #48
thanks Jes ... South Dakota Pride!!!!!! 
 
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Posted: #49
What's up jesron. Looking good so far. Good thing burke isn't playing worth a crap.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Keep it up SDSU!  They aren't hitting any shots but still have the lead....and Wolters with only 4 pts....gotta feel good so far
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