Smart Bet Tourney Edition:

Cleveland State (+7.5) vs Wake Forest: This is for you savage. For starters if you believe WF is a team that is similar to Syracuse or Butler with strong guard play and above talent in the middle then you got to like CSt. CSt beat the Cuse and Butler on their home courts. Always a solid pick to take senior leadership in the tourney and CSt has that in their senior guards and their senior inside presence of Bullock. To add to that, the D of CSt has been rock solid all year holding teams to around 60 ppg and 40% and under 30% from three point range. CSt also takes care of the ball well and will definetly come to play. WF has simply been average and that is a concern when it comes tourney time. Yes they have solid wins and can play with anyone as proven by their #1 ranking for a short period, but when is that team going to show-up. WF may not take this game as serious as they need too, which CSt will take advantage of. CSt does a great job of hanging around, mostly b/c of their quality defense. CSt should keep it close, but WF is the more talented team and could squeak out a cover late. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see CSt shooting a late three for the dramatic upset.

 

W. Ky vs Illinois under 124: 12 v 5 match-up here and I wouldn't be stunned to see the Illini exiting early. However, I think the play here is the under. Both teams play great defense allowing under 60 ppg and under 40% shooting over their last 5. Neither team runs or really looks to push the ball. Controlled, half-court offense, is where the scoring will be done. So look for both teams to slow the tempo and look for quality shots. However, b/c of the pressure defense those quality shots should come few and far between. I see this game being in the 50s so an under should easily be the play.

VCU,  are you high?  hope is not a betting strategy

Michigan (+5) vs Clemson: As I continued to look and analyze this game I see considerable value in taking Michigan with the points. As always, when betting underdogs, look for underdogs who have the potential to win the game outright. What I really like about Michigan is their ability to play different tempos and still be successful. The key to their success is playing within themselves within whatever tempo the game is at. Michigan can get out and run with a team, but it can't be fast break city with loose play and fast jump shots. Michigan needs to play controlled basketball and find open looks for Harris and Sims. Michigan will need to find some open looks for their role players and they will definetly have to make some big shots for Michigan to pull off this upset. Looking statistically at these teams Michigan's D is probably better allowing around 10 points less per contest than Clemson. However, factor into that that Michigan is playing in the Big 10 which consistently plays lower scoring much slower tempo games. Two other keys to this game will be TOs and Rebounding. Michigan averages almost 17 TOs a game and if that happens on Thursday Clemson will take advantage and put Michigan away easily. Clemson will also be crashing the boards hard and Michigan cannot give them second and third chances to score. However, I really like the coaching of Beilein and I think he will have a great game plan that will give Michigan the best chance of succeeding. Michigan didn't play great down the stretch, but they did win the must win games. Clemson really struggled going 1-4 over their last five. I like Michigan to win outright, so I will gladly take the points.

nice work love lsu and texas.might just fade the big ten in every first round game.live in the middle of big ten country and this conferance is not good this year.brutal.

Yes, I do agree that the Big Ten conference is probably weaker than most other conferences despite getting several bids into the tourney. As you can see I have picked against Purdue, don't really like Wisconsin, Illini are weak at best, and Minnesota should be one and done. The only positive thing I can say for the Big Ten is that they received pretty favorable match-ups as all do have the potential to win their games, however unlikely that may be.

 

Good Luck. Will continue to do some research and will post other games. Will likely post a couple games later or update some of my other posts if something really jumps out of me.

Son-

 

Nice work and I look forward to other write ups...here is my quick take on two games:

 

LSU-Butler:  I have watched LSU play about 15 times this year and it is amazing how they struggle with a long powerful post player.  But more importantly, it is their foul trouble that gets them in trouble.  Similar to Pitt (although Pitt is much stronger obviously).  If LSU can stay away from early foul trouble, I think they get this number in a 65-57type of game similar to what they did to Kentucky in the only game they cared about last week.  Garrett Temple can shut down just about anybody in the coutnry as he held Meeks to 8 last week and the length of Mitchell, CJohnson and even Marcus Thornton...they will be a tough matchup for Butler.  I like Butler but this team won 13 staright conference games and even the SEC may be a little down...playing and winning on the road in the SEC is enough for me.  LSU -2.5

Purdue-

 

I hate to disagree with you on this one, but I heard the N Iowa coach talk about howmuch better they are since Jan 1...went 6-6 prior with bad losses to Iowa St, Iowa Marquette (30) and Wyoming.  It makes sense they played better once they got into conference play, but they even lost thier bracket buster by 6 to Sienna (to me this was the deciding factor for me)!!

 

Purdue is awfully good IMO and although a loss would NOT shock me, I think the better defensive team (BY FAR) is Purdue and they usually dominate the boards.  I also think the tempo favors Purdue as N Iowa is not a walk it up the floor team.

 

Just can't see this one as I think Purdue has a chance to do some damage in the tourney.  For me...I like Purdue quite a bit!!  I have Purdue getting into my Sweet 16 with very little trouble.

Good luck to you and I look forward to more reports....I haven't even gotten to Friday yet.  Agree with Memphis and Cleveland State!!

 

 

1st Half Play:

 

North Dakota State (+5.5) vs Kansas: I stated earlier the importance of playing dogs with the potential of pulling the upset and that is definetly possible here, even though I see this game being close with Kansas pulling away midway through the second half to win by 10 or 12. Kansas's young talent should be enough to get them to the second round and possibly beyond. However, Dakota should keep this game close in the first half. On the road Dakota has averaged over 35 points in the first half compare to Kansas's 32. Dakota is lead by several seniors who will be looking to win a game instead of simply being satisfied that they made the tourney, so they should come out extremely focused and ready to play on Friday. Remember, Kansas is young and that inexperience my cause them to come out a little anxious/nervous and play a little flat, which should allow Dakota to keep it real close at halftime.

Utah State vs Marquette (-4.5): Very difficult game to pick here and that is b/c of the injury to Dominic James. With him, I would have had Marquette going pretty far in the tourney, but I think they will be very lucky to win more than one game. Marq went 1-5 down the stretch, but you do have to consider who they played in those games UConn, Vill, Pitt, Loui, Cuse, and St. Johns who they destroyed. W/O their best player it would have been shocking for them to win any of those games. Utah State went 5-1 down the stretch and will come ready to play. I think Marq will have to get out and run and push the tempo and find open looks for their guards. Utah State's Wilkinson is a very difficult match-up for Marq as they have had consistent trouble with talented big men all year. I think Marq's quickness will be the difference as I don't think Utah State has seen anyone quit like Marq. I wouldn't be shocked to see Utah State keep this one close, especially if Marq cannot find an answer Wilkinson. I do like Marq to find a way to win their first game, but it will not be a cake walk.

I have really been studying the brackets today and looking ahead to some of the second round match-ups. There is a match-up I absolutely love UNC vs LSU. Quote me now, great potential for an upset, especially with Lawson's injury appearing to be more than the average injury. I already locked in a nice wager on LSU to get past Butler, Butler will be tough, but I do really like LSU. Tomorrow cannot get here fast enough.

 Love the write ups thanks BOL  

I was looking at the match-ups for tonights games and I think one game in particular may help bettors, like you and me, determine what the Big 10 may do in the dance. I am talking about Northwestern vs Tulsa. Tulsa is a very solid basketball team that was likely in some consideration for the dance, but they lost too many games which they had to win. Remember, on their home court, they were a layup away from beating Memphis, a team I have going a long way in the tourney. If Northwestern wins at Tulsa, while it wouldn't be the biggest upset in the world, it would be a good indicator of whether teams like Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State can win more than one game. I do like MSU to win a couple of games, but all the other Big 10 teams will be lucky to not be one and done. For what it is worth I really do like Tulsa tonight as Northwestern has really struggled on the road this year.

I have been listening to Vegasinsider radio everyday this week and these are the guys who put together the lines for the sportsbook so there is some value in what they say b/c they do this for a living. They are very very high on Michigan State, with several of them having MSU in the final four and even the final game. I am a Big 10 fan, but I just do not see them playing on that level. I just thought I would throw that info out.

I do like VCU a lot and definetly for them to cover the number. However, the line was sent out at 10 and immediately was bet hard down to 7. However, if you notice the line has moved back up to 8. Experts think that immediate money on VCU had to do with the fact that many bettors took a chance on VCU hoping that the game would be a 12:20 game, which would be a 9:20 game for UCLA. However, when the time of the games came out on Monday the game is not until 9:50ET, 6:50PT, so UCLA caught a break there. However, VCU has tourney experience and will give UCLA everything they can handle. I see this game being very tight throughout. So 7 or 8 still seems like a real big number for teams that match-up this well. Collinson will have his hands full with Maynor.

North Dakota State (+10) vs Kansas: I have already said I like the first half play with this North Dakota State team and now I am going to lock them in for the game as well. Have you heard the story about this North Dakota State team? First they have returned all five starters from last year's team which includes four seniors, and that includes the best player in their weak conference Woodside. Another starter who actually may be the key to their success is Winkelman. He averages over 18 ppg, and 7 rebounds and shoots over 40% from three-point range. Secondly, I believe all five of these starters used their red-shirts so that they could remain eligible when the basketball team was given D I status. That is serious commitment. I mean just b/c they were DI they weren't automatically in the tourney, they had to win their conference tourney and get the automatic bid b/c regardless of their record they would have likely had no chance at an at-large bid. So this team has literally been waiting for this game for at least four years. Thirdly, this game is in Minnesota and from what I have heard their fans and coming by the thousands and I doubt many Kansas fans are making that journey b/c most see them advancing past the first couple of games. Statistically NDSU is a better offensive team as they score more points, shoot a better FG% and a better 3-point %. Defensively they are arguably pretty even as NDSU has played above average D consistently on the road. And fourthly, it wasn't until last year that Self final threw the first-round loss monkey off his back. Kansas has had a history of being upset in the first round, remember Bucknell? I know many don't agree with this pick, but I just think the plusses for NDSU outweigh the plusses for KU, so I will take the points and probably make a small play on the moneyline at +450.

some of the best writups ive seen in 7+ years on this site......very noce bro

 

2 questions.....

 

I like all your picks, but I find value in Miss St +6. They are on a roll and have a great big man that can neutralize Brockamn and make the Huskies alter their shots. On top of that, they got a big slap in the face with the 13 seed.

 

also, what do you think of....

 

 Cle St/WF O137? I think these teams both get in the 70s.....

 

Temple/Az St U124...both teams rely a ton on 1 player, so both defenses can focus on making the other 4 beat them...

 

gl bro and once again, very nice work

 

 

TRAIN69. . thanks for all the comments. . . appreciated greatly.

 

Now to your questions:

 

1. There are several experts that do see value in the Miss St. play, however, most seem to be leaning first half as they may simply run out of steam down the stretch. Regardless of how big a factor it is, you have to remember they played four games in a row last weekend, playing better ball then they had played all year long and it is unlikely they continue to play at the level. Especially since they have to travel west and play on Thursday, that takes a lot out of team no matter what shape they are in. This should be a very good game, but I think the guard play of Wash is better, maybe not a lot, but enough for Washington to win by 5, which is what I posted yesterday. So if you are really liking Miss. St, maybe take them in first half where they will be fresher and have their legs under them.

 

2. Cleveland St/WF over 137: I think you can go both ways on this number. First, if you like Cleveland State plus the points, as I wrote about earlier, I think you have to learn towards the under simply b/c Cleveland State averages at best 65 ppg and when they win they are holding opponents to around 60. However, if you think WF is the play and they control the tempo then the score will likely be around the 78-65, which hits the over, but barely. I hate to talk anyone off a play, but I think for Cleveland State to compete in this game they have to try and slow things done and score in their half court offense. I just don't see them being able to get out and run and score in the 70s. Therefore, I have to side with the under with score more like 71-64. I will have to give the books credit as that is a pretty solid number.

 

3. Temple/Az St under 124: You are definetly right about the importance of the one key player on both of these teams. I would agree that both teams defensive plans have to be focused on stopping the others star player. Both of these defensives are solid allowing 65 ppg or less. I haven't been able to watch these two teams very much, so I am not for sure what type of defense these teams play or if the coaches may be thinking of using a zone, but I do think there is going to be a lot of half-court offense with teams fighting for every basket. So I would lean towards the under, but it is a little scary when you have such great players that really can take a game over at anytime. If Christmas gets crazy hot from outside and hits several threes then that low number becomes very difficult to stay under.

 

Good Luck throughout the tourney and on all your bets.

Adding one more play before the games begin. .

 

W.Kentucky (+5) vs Illini: Northwestern had a solid showing against Tulsa, but I am still not convinced the Big 10 will have that impressive of a showing in the tourney. WKy has played very well over their past 10 winning 9 and covering 8 of 10. While Illini have went 6 and 10, and 5-5 ATS. I will agree that the Illini played better competition, but there are several weaknesses in their game. WKy's offense has really been clicking as of late scoring over 70 ppg, shooting over 43% from the field, and dominating the boards. I also like how Wky's D has improved over their last five allowing less than 60 ppg, under 40% shooting, and just over 30% from 3-point range. Illini's offense is a product of the Big 10 meaning they slow the tempo and focus on their half-court offense. I think that should help WKy by allowing them to get into their defensive sets. If the Illini have to control too much of the game for them to win and I just don't think they can. Therefore, I see it unlikely for them to handle the balanced attack of WKy and the Illini will likely fall victim to the 12v5 upset.

 

Good Luck Today!

what do u guys think about the memphis under 131.5?

Memphis/CSUN under 131.5??: When most people think of Memphis they believe they are a team that likes to get out and run, but that is not really true. Memphis will run, but not necessarily b/c they want to push the tempo, usually b/c their opponent is trying to push the tempo. However, many experts believe that CSUN will have to try and push the tempo to even have a chance at staying with Memphis. Therefore, this game will likely be an up-tempo game with the score being a little higher than 131.5. I like the over b/c I think Memphis will score some where in the 70s and CSUN in the low 60s, which for me sees the over cashing pretty easily.

For what it is worth there seems to be a lot of money going down on BYU even though I was leaning more towards Texas A&M. BYU is currently -3.