Smart Bet Tourney Edition:

Back for the tourney as I took a beating down the stretch. So I just sat back, watched as many games as possible, and studied.

 

Early Play:

 

1. Northern Iowa (+8.5) vs Purdue: For starters, I don't know the exact stats, but teams finishing their conference tourney last week compared to teams that finished their conference tourney on Saturday or Sunday have been great against the spread over the past few years. Northern Iowa has had their ticket punched since March 8th and have had time to take a few days off, rest, and get focused for their first round match-up. On the other hand, Purdue just finished playing their third straight day on Sunday, in a come from behind win. Now they must turn around travel to Portland and play the 1pm game on Thursday. Examining the stats I think it is vital to focus in on Away Stats and last 5 game stats as that should give us the best determination of what team will show up on Thursday. NIU has shot over 45% away from home and over their last 5 and about 35% from three point range. While Purdue has been only around the 40% mark. Both teams are solid defensively and this game should definetly be close throughout. Turnovers and Rebounds will be key for both teams and statistically they are pretty evenly matched in this area. I think this game will be close throughout so I love getting those 8.5 points. This game has all the makings for a 12 v 5 upset as the fresh legs of NIU could give them a lead early and help them pull out the victory or at least the cover.

 

Will be updating as I continue to evaluate plays.

Good Luck. Would love any comments.

good write up.  Think you are on a winner!

Butler at LSU (-2): Butler has really struggled against athletic teams that can crash the boards and capatilize on second chances, for example losing to Cleveland State and Ohio State. I think LSU creates very difficult match-up problems for Butler. LSU should dominate the boards and capitalize on second chances. LSU plays decent defense allowing just under 70 per, but they play great 3-point defense where teams have shot way under 30% and I think that has to do with the size and length of LSU. LSU's starts 3 guys over 6'6", with their shortest point guard being 6'1". However, Butler has three guys under 6'4" that start, while it is not a big difference it will matter when it comes to contesting three-point shots. LSU's size, athleticism, and rebounding ability should be the key for an LSU blowout.

 

Back with more later.

VCU (+7) vs UCLA: Very surprised by this huge number as many experts are picking VCU to win outright. There is no doubt UCLA can play with anyone and do have talent to make a run in the tourney, but they have consistently been less than average on many levels. Overall, UCLA may have a better defense, but strictly looking at the away stats, you have to statistically give the edge to VCU as they have allowed less than 70 ppg, given up just over 40% shooting, and less than 30% shooting from three-point range, and tend to dominate the boards. Over VCU's last 5 their D may have been one of the best in the country allowing under 50 ppg, 32% shooting, and 20% from three-point range, that is simply sick. The offensive match-up should be great on both ends, but again looking at the away stats you have to give the edge to VCU. I just like how VCU finsihed the year rolling, dominating their last 5 games, while UCLA did finish 4-1 over their last 5 they should have easily won their conference tourney. I like VCU to pull the upset, so getting 7 seems like a bunch.

   great write-ups!! Completely agree with you on Northern Iowa!

ucla is an enigma (not sure on spelling) but they have the rep as a defensive team yet their over under numbers are completely opposite..they are a remakable 21-11 to the over so either the lines made it so or they are not as good defensively as everyone seems..

 

by the way really like memphis 1st game minus 19  .. line will sky rocket and they moght win by 83-45 type score if they go all out..(always a  risk in 1st round however.. super bet may be 1st half..although  ive also made a ton on them betting them in the 2nd half if the 1st half is not a blowout..if you  go back they havve outscored ALOT  of teams by a ton in 2nd  half when games are not that uneven in 1st

 

 

 

 

Stephen F. Austin (+12.5) at Syracuse: No doubt about it, what Syracuse did in the Big East Tourney was simply amazing and absolutely great to watch. They were awarded for the great play with a game on Friday, instead of having to play on Thursday. They do have to play in Miami, so some travel is involved and I believe that will be a factor for the simple fact that there is no way this team is not emotionally, physically, and mentally exhausted. I think the toughest part for Syracuse will be forgetting about the Big East tourney, it would have been easier to forget if they had won, but after all that effort they still came up short in the title game. SFAU is no joke and is one of the toughest defensive teams in the country and that means extra effort on the part of the Cuse to score. SFAU's D allows 55.8 ppg and holds teams to 26% shooting from 3-point land. Offensively the Cuse are a much better team, no real stats to support SFAU scoring in bunches except for the fact that Cuse's D is not that impressive. They have allowed just under 75 ppg and over 40% shooting. I see this game being in the upper 60s with Syracuse pulling out a 4 or 5 point win. Everyone is on the Cuse after this weekend's performance so this number go up to 14, which I think would take a huge effort on the part of the Cuse, something I am not convinced they are up too. 

Impressive write-ups.  I'd be inclined to agree with all, though I worry that perhaps the power ratings/spreads haven't fully accounted for Purdue being healthy.  Still, I thought we'd see 5.5 here and we got 8, so maybe they have. 

Robert Morris vs Michigan State (-17): Big number here, but I think the Spartans take care of business and win going away and here is why. First, I really like how MSU played against teams with strong guard play such as Kansas, Illinois, Bradley, and Texas. For my analysis, Robert Morris seems to fall into a similar category with the guard play of Jeremy Chappell and Bateko Francisco. Izzo seems to really develop a nice game plan to slow doing good point guards. I think the defense of Lucas and Walton will really challenge the guards of Robert Morris. MSU has held teams to just over 60 ppg and a little over 40% shooting. The difference for me will be the inside play of MSU, Suton and Morgan should have a field day dominating the boards and capitalizing on second and third chances. Robert Morris is also coming off an extremely emotional win on one of the most dramatic last second shots of the year. Now they have to come back and play one of the best teams in the tourney. I am not sold on MSU as a final four team or as a team that should have had a number one seed, but they are clearly the better team here. MSU should really be focused coming off their loss to Ohio State. Look for MSU's talent inside and tough defense to be clearly the difference in a blowout win.

Portland State (+11) vs Xavier: I know a lot of people are already on this pick so I may not be throwing out anything new, but here is my two-cents on the game. When taking dogs to win or cover, you really have to like taking a team that is filled with returning players and experience, specifically tourney experience. Last year Portland State had the tough draw of Kansas, so it was one and done, but this year it isn't just about getting to the tourney its about being competitive and possibly winning a game or two. While Xavier is not the easiest game they could have drawn, PSt has to like their match-up here. The game is in Idaho, a short drive for PSt and their fans should be there to show their support. Xavier has to travel a long way for this game and lack the needed experience to win in an unfriendly environment. PSt is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation knocking down about 9 a contest. Xavier's D didn't have an answer for Temple's Star Christmas and I don't see them containing the three-headed monster combo of Dominguez, Waters, and Murray. I think Portland State could pull the upset so I definetly love getting the 11 points.

I confused, do you like my pick or not?

 

Minnesota vs Texas(-4): I have not been all that impressed with either one of these teams this year and I think Texas's big win over Oklahoma, wasn't that big at all as Griffin played minimal minutes with foul trouble and then the concusion. Minnesota really struggled down the strecth and I don't believe they were really deserving of a bid to the dance. This game comes down to one player and his ability to dominate the game, Dexter Pittman. If he stays out of foul trouble there is no way any player on Minnesota slows him down. I have heard from listening to some experts that put out the line that many had Texas favored by almost double digits, but eventually the line was pushed down to 4. Texas won't blowout Minnesota, but Texas will pull away late to cover easy by 8 to 10.

Texas A&M vs BYU over 139: Critical here to look at the last 5 games here for A&M as they are averaging almost 80ppg and will definetly look to push the ball in this match-up with BYU. A&M also shot almost 50% and 42% from 3-point range. BYU has not been in that many high scoring games, but that is b/c they allow teams to dictate the tempo against them. Therefore, when playing against teams that push the tempo BYU can easily score in the 70s or more. BYU also shoots the ball well even though they struggled over their last 5, for the year they were around 50% and almost 40% from 3-point range. Look for the tempo to be quick and the 3-point shooters to take advantage of open looks. This hits the over easily, should be sitting comfortable at halfime with a score of 40-36.

great write ups!!!!

Mississippi State vs Washington (-5): I think this number goes up as the week goes on so if you like this pick you may want to get on it early. Seems to be a small number for a team that is virtually playing a home game. MSU was great in the conference tourney, but again take into consideration that it is the SEC, which was really weak this year. I don't like betting a team in the tourney when they had to play their absolute best just to get into the tourney and that is exactly what MSU had to do. Now they will even have to play better to beat a Huskie team playing at home. The guard play of both those squads should be great to watch, but I still have to give the edge to the Huskies. I believe they shoot the ball better around 45% compared to 41% for MSU. While MSU will come to play, I don't believe they can be as sharp as they were in the conference tourney. Therefore, lay the points with the Huskies.