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Sloop Sunday

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Posted: #1
204-157-8

11-4 Saturday. Taking it easy on Sunday.

One locked in:

Montana -3

Leans: Niagara +3, Oregon -1, Loyola u134.5, USF u122.5, Miami -8, Iona -14.

 
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Posted: #2

Awesome job today man!

 
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Posted: #3

Sloop...does the Oregon line look fishy to you?  I've got the Ducks by 4-5.

 
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Posted: #4
I really don't have much to say about Montana. The pick is pretty obvious...they're clearly the better team. Take a look at Portland State's wins:

#238 Seattle
NR Linfield
#228 Louisiana Tech
#327 Maryland Eastern Shore
NR "Walla Walla"
#244 Cal St. Bakersfield
#323 No. Arizona
#242 Northern Colorado
#295 Idaho State
#200 Eastern Washington

Not ONE of their wins come to a team ranked better than #200.

Not worried at all about Montana on the road. Yes, Montana is only 5-4 on the road this year, but the four teams they've lost to on the road have a combined 49-6 record at home. fucking insane.

I'm not quite sure how these teams each grabbed 30 rebounds the first time they met, considering Montana is #40 in effective height in the country, and Portland State is a horrible #315. I'm guessing their guards are just really big, considering they're still a horrible team at grabbing offensive boards. Not really sure. I don't pride myself on Big West basketball. But I'm still expecting a better effort from Montana at rebounding this time around.

Don't get me wrong, Portland State has the ability to score. They're #32 at PPG and #23 in FG %. But good defensive teams have been very effective at keeping Portland State from scoring, and Montana has the kind of defense to suffocate their offense. And Montana can score too, especially against Portland State's #314 defense.

Also, Montana is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by crocnzeeba:

Sloop...does the Oregon line look fishy to you?  I've got the Ducks by 4-5.


I'll be taking a good hard look at this one in the morning from a matchup perspective. I still have a little hangover from last season to fade Oregon State on the road, and that's a large part of the lean. THEY WENT 1-12..... that's ONE AND TWELVE...on the road last season. And that one win? It came to #340 HOWARD.

So this year, Oregon State returns a lot of their team (71% of offensive production and 66% of defensive)...so I would expect the same sort of problems. They already have more road wins than they did last season, going 2-3 on true road games. But their two wins this year? They come to #342 Towson and to #337 Chicago State.That proves nothing. They played Arizona tough, but didn't even come close @ Washington or @ ASU. So while Oregon State has been LIGHTS OUT at home this year...including 9-1 ATS at home...they've still failed away from home...1-4 ATS on the road.

Combine that with Oregon's 12-2 home record this year, and we have a very bad spot for OSU. Oregon's two losses come to UVA and Cal. Both ranked teams. Very impressive. Their wins mostly include a bunch of cupcakes, but they also have great wins against UCLA and Stanford. And they fucking rallied in that UCLA game.

I'll probably take a stab at the Ducks. Really not impressed at all by Oregon State's non-conference schedule (#329 in the country). Think we're getting a little value here by an overvalued Oregon State, but I could be wrong, and they might actually be better. Their offense has been incredible. But they have been so, so bad defensively, and Oregon's good enough to put up points.

Not sure yet, but definitely leaning DUCKS here.
 
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Posted: #6
Going to have to consult my brother (went to Manhattan College) for this MC/Niagara game. I was initially leaning Niagara here, but I think it's about time to start believing in the Jaspers. Steve Masiallo has done wonders for this team, and now that they're finally healthy they are showing so, so much promise. They're covering machines (10-2 ATS on the road), and just keep on impressing. Niagara's still only beaten ONE top 200 team (Loyola MD...who they lost to on Friday), and only one other team in the top 250 (#204 Central Connecticut, in an overtime game, the first game of the season). I was actually kind of impressed when I saw Niagara play once earlier this season, but on paper, Manhattan is clearly the more proven team.

Manhattan needs to focus on taking care of the ball in this game, as they're one of the 30 worst teams at turning the ball over, and Niagara is #55 at forcing them. I'm sure Masiello will focus on this issue. Expecting to see Manhattan keep scoring (especially against Niagara's horrible defense...#285 most efficient defense, and #293 at defensive effective FG %), playing extremely tough defense, and do the fundamentals right: make their free throws, get their rebounds, push the pace, and focus on good shot selection. Won't be surprised to see Manhattan take an early deficit; they've strugged a ton in the 1st half this season. But still think Manhattan eventually pulls off the cover.
 
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Posted: #7
Square-ass Sunday.

Why won't Iona blow St. Peter's out of the water? St. Peter's has been just awful this year, and Iona is going to have a field day offensively against St. Peter's #220 defense. St. Peter's has lost 11 games this season by double digits (that's over half of their games), and with the possible exception of Seton Hall or Minnesota, they haven't even played a team as talented as Iona. And the fast tempo that Iona will dictate will make this even more capable of another huge blowout. And aside from Iona's loss at Siena, Iona has beaten all 7 "not top 200" teams by double digits, and by an average of 22.5 points.

Iona made the statement game @ Fairfield the other day that I thought they would. They played a very complete game, although it got a little close at the end. Regardless, they should still have a bitter taste in their mouth from the loss @ Siena just 6 days ago. This team needs to prove they deserve an at large bit, and they can't afford to fuck around with a team as pourous as St. Peter's. I'm not as good at picking huge lines, especially road favorites, but I'm strongly leaning Iona here.
 
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Posted: #8
Lean Miami.

BC is bad.

And Will Smith said so.

 
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Posted: #9
good luck.  big sky conference is fun
 
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Posted: #10
Nice day..
 
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Posted: #11
I really like your Montana play. It will be on my card as well
 
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Posted: #12
Hell of a day for you
 
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Posted: #13
BC 1-6 ATS at home

Ohio State 9-1 ATS at home

USF 6-3 ATS at home this year, providence 2-5 ATS away (4-11 overall)

indiana 6-2 ATS at home this year

indiana state 2-7 ats on the road this year. evansville 5-4 at home and 11-6 overall

cal 8-3 ATS at home this year
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Hell of a day for you

you had a hell of a nice day yourself!

montana..let's get it.
 
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Posted: #15

appreciate the write-ups Sloop

 
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Posted: #16
BC games 6-1 on the under this year at home. miami games 4-2 on the under this year on the road.

iowa games 5-1-1 over this year away. indiana games 5-3 at home for the over.

south alabama games 6-1 for the under at home this year

oregon state games 4-1 for the over this year and 11-4 over overall. oregon games 5-5 over at home.

evansville games 13-4 over this year

fairfield games 6-1 under at home this year
 
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Posted: #17
I really like your Montana play also. I'm leaning towards Oregon right now and will probably play them along with Montana and a few NBA games. 
 
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Posted: #18
current card:

Montana -3
Manhattan -3
Oregon -1

No interest in anything other than Iona. A TON of ugly games on Sunday.
 
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Posted: #19
THX for the info Sloop!
 
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Posted: #20
Great day yesterday. You da man, thanks.
 
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Posted: #21
Ohio State -14

Ohio State is 9-1 ATS at home for a reason. They have completely decimated EVERYONE at home this year, going 15-0 at home. Their average winning margin in those 15 games? 31.73 points. And in only one of those games did OSU not win by at least 17 points. That was the second game of the season vs Florida (only a 7 point win), and they've mauled the last 13 straight.

Michigan's been shaky on the road this year, getting their first win away from home at Purdue. They've dropped three of their last seven, and are ranked just 8th in scoring offense at 64.1 PPG. They're shooting 43% (7th in conference), including just 30.6% from the three. But they jack up a ton of threes. Expecting the OSU crowd to be louder than ever, and Hardaway&Burke's scoring woes are likely to continue in this matchup. And OSU is 2nd in the conference in scoring defense, and 1st in FG defense (37.9). OSU is also going to grab a shit load of rebounds, as Michigan is small in the front court. They rank dead last in the conference w/ a 1.8 rebounding margin, and they'll get killed by Ohio State, who leads the conference in defensive rebounds, averaging 26.6 per game. OSU also leads the conference in scoring offense (76.9), 1st in steals (7.5), and 1st in turnover margin at +3.25.

There has been nobody more dominant at home this year in all of college basketball. I'll lay the points here.
 
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Posted: #22
(when i say hardaway and burke have scoring woes, im just talking about road games)
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by sloop703:

current card:

Montana -3
Manhattan -3
Oregon -1

No interest in anything other than Iona. A TON of ugly games on Sunday.



Good luck, I feel like we're always on the same page lol. Definitely playing all 3 of those.
 
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Posted: #24
Ok, I'm a liar...forgive me.

Adding: Miami -8

I liked the resurgence that I saw at Georgia Tech the other day. Don't have stats for this one, just a strong feeling that Miami explodes.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Greeeeat. Job yesterday sloop! U made me a ton of cash money!  Keep up the good work- 
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