SI Group's CBB Thursday "8-3 ATS Yesterday, More Winners today" ***ANALYSIS INSIDE***

Finally a decent night in all sports (8-3 ATS in CBB, 1-0 ATS in NBA and 2-0 in NHL) but now it's time to move on and make things happen here.



ACC Tournament - 1st Round


Miami-Florida Hurricanes -3

Not an easy one because it's early, we don't know how some of these teams are going to react and their only meeting of the year went to overtime but at this point in time the Hurricanes have a huge advantage on a neutral court and I think it shows to some extent in this one. Neither team had much success winning games on the road and neither team had much success winning games within the Conference. I was somewhat impressed with Virginia's win at Maryland on the weekend and they did also beat NC State at home for a two game win streak heading into tournament action but they got blown out by Washington and Wichita State on a neutral court this season while Miami hasn't really been challenged in this setting but having watched the first game between these teams I get the feeling the Canes learned their lesson the first time around and beating the Cavaliers will be a bit easier now that they have something to work with.

Virginia can't shoot and that's a known fact at the end of the day. I mean they have made only 40.5% of their field goal attempts the last five games and average only 62.0 points per game. Surprisingly enough they do have a pretty good perimeter shooting team and that could hurt a Miami team that struggled all season to stop good perimeter teams but the Canes have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 40.5% from the field and for a small team like the Cavaliers that could become a problem. Since they can't make their shots, the fact that over the course of the last five games Miami has grabbed 4.8 more rebounds per game than the Cavaliers is not a good sign and the we will probably see quite a few one and done situations for Virginia. Miami is also a deadly three point shooting team as they have made 39.6% of their three point shots the last five games so at the end of the day they shoot the ball better in recent weeks, their defense is and always has been solid and the rebounding issue is going to be a big problem for Virginia. Miami will have all the second chance opportunities in this one which should be enough to put them over the top in the end.

It's been more than a month since the only meeting of the season between these two teams (overtime win by Miami at home) and that was pretty much a game the Cavaliers did not really belong in. They were outrebounded 39-25 but made 11 three pointers in the game, something they will obviously try to make happen again in this one. Having said that it's a bit early to be making shots at such a high percentage and the Cavaliers are shooting only 40.5% from the field their last five games. The Canes ended the regular season with a loss but like they have done so many times this year, they have bounced back with a good performance and that's why they are 4-1 ATS the following game after their last five losses this season. On paper the Cavaliers are the better spread option and they have been all season but if Miami can shut down some of that perimeter shooting by the Cavaliers, they would win this by 7+ and the fact that this is an early game is a huge factor as to why I believe the Cavaliers won't make their perimeter shots like they have all season. I'll go with Miami to win this and cover the spread.

Miami-Florida minus the points.

I was leaning on the over in the miami and virginia game..   Any thoughts?

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Big East Tournament - Quarter-Finals


Connecticut Huskies +5.5

I told you guys this yesterday, Kemba Walker and his crew are not going away. Kemba got a taste of the Big East Tournament as a freshman like no other freshman has ever tasted this kind of stuff in that six overtime first round loss against Syracuse and his bad performance that pretty much did them in. Last year was an exception to the matter but this year, in what will probably be his final collegiate season, Kemba is on a tear in his own backyard at MSG and if you ask me this is the team to watch out for and I said that since day one. Not St. John's, not anyone else in the inconsistent Big East, but Connecticut so the four points are pretty much a gift in this case. Walker is a future star in the NBA if you ask me and he led the Nation in scoring for the most part of the season. The Huskies made both DePaul and Georgetown look like teams who don't belong and my concerns with Pittsburgh is that they have no motivation to win these games. Sure they'll battle and sure they'll make it tough on the Huskies but they have a #1 seed pretty much locked up already (although I don't agree if they lose this game) so the motivation might not be there. It's tough being a team like Pitt who has been watching tournament action for two days and now having to play against a team already two games prepared in this tournament and I just think that in a game that will come down to the very end, the Huskies have the advantage.

The Panthers screwed me so many times this season because they struggled to make free throws down the stretch so even if they do have an advantage in this game and even if they are up in the final few minutes, the fact that this team is shooting 67.0% from the free throw line in their last five games is a big time concern for anyone considering backing them here. Connecticut is averaging 10.0 more points per game than the Panthers in the last five games, they are shooting better than the Panthers (48.2% from the field) in those last five games and what's huge for me is that the Huskies and their new found 'bigs' success have held those last five opponents to 26.2 rebounds per game and when the Panthers don't get those offensive boards, they tend to settle for bad perimeter shots. Don't get me wrong, the Panthers are probably one of the most effective defensive teams in the Nation but Connecticut is above average themselves in recent games and their ability to actually make free throws changes everything for me in a tournament game like this. 83.7% (Connecticut) or 67.0% (Pittsburgh) free throw shooting in the last five games. Which would you prefer with the game on the line, which you know it will be at the very end? I think that answer is easy. The Kemba shows continues today at MSG.

The teams met once this season but it was all the way back in December and the Panthers man-handled the Huskies 78-63 but that was three months ago, so much has changed not only in those three months but in the span of one week for Connecticut who look like a Connecticut team we have not seen all season long. They are 10-5 ATS away from home this season and 2-0 ATS in this tournament so far. That would also make the Huskies 5-0 ATS on neutral courts this season (that's a very dangerous tournament team if you ask me and I'll keep that in consideration come bracket time, win or lose today) and a team that has followed 20 of their last 28 straight up wins with a spread cover the next time out. Pitt on the other hand have covered the spread in only 5 of their last 16 neutral court games and although they are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the Huskies, I don't have it in me to go against Kemba and the surging Huskies in this tournament. Even if they lose, it will be by one or two points and they are not going to go down without a fight. Another afternoon game, another afternoon win for Connecticut. The Panthers have played with fire all season missing free throws late and now it comes back to bite them. Keep it rolling my friends.

Connecticut plus the points.

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Big 12 Tournament - 2nd Round


Oklahoma State Cowboys +14.5

You know what, the obvious choice here is taking Kansas because of the way they manhandled this short handed Oklahoma State team a few weeks ago and the odds of that happening are pretty good with all the Kansas supporters in attendance but I don't think winning via blowout will be an easy task for Kansas and this is another team that managed to burned on quite a  few occasions this past regular season so I'll stick to my gut. Oklahoma State probably deserved to lose that game against Nebraska yesterday because they came out in the second half and let the game slip away but they made some key three point shots in the final few minutes to pull away and avoided a furious Nebraska comeback to shockingly win a Big 12 Tournament game. Kansas on the other hand are the best team in the Conference but they stumble into the post-season having not covered a spread in three games. This is not a home game guys, it's still considered a neutral court so I think we can take some of those home double digit wins and throw them out the window here. The Cowboys have tournament ready legs having played the one game already, they have nothing to lose in this game and if they bring that attitude once again today, they have a shot at keeping this close as Kansas will eventually escape with all they really care about and that is a straight up win.

If you look at the stats offensively, they are scary because over the course of the last five games the Jayhawks average 15.4 more points per game than Oklahoma State and they do shoot 50.4% from the field in those games but the Cowboys are still making 44.2% of their shots from the field despite scoring only 64.0 points per game during that span and if they can find a way to bring Kansas down to that pace, and it could happen in such an early game and this being the Jayhawks first tournament game, they will keep this close. A low scoring game favors the Cowboys. What has me on board with this huge spread is the fact that Kansas has made only 69.4% of their free throws for one and second of all, the Cowboys defense over the course of the last two weeks has been impressive. They have held opponents to 41.8% shooting from the field and opponents have made only 32.3% of their shots from three point range which is above average at the end of the day and which is a requirement when backing teams against Kansas. So defensively the Cowboys have been above average in almost every category the last five games or so and that's good enough for me to believe they can get some stops in this game and keep it to single digits for the most part. I'm telling you now free throws will be a problem for Kansas in the final few minutes.

I have to ask you again to take the first meeting of the season and throw it out the window because it looked bad, the Cowboys were still reeling from the loss of their best player to rape charges and not many teams have gone to Kansas and come out of there with anything less than a 20 point loss this season so on that note, we move to a neutral court this time, Kansas is only 6-6 ATS this season on a court other than their home court so the spread to me looks great. As much as Oklahoma State has struggled, the Cowboys are now 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games played on a neutral court and ever since they have turned things up defensively, it seems to have worked for them and it seems to compensate for their lack of scoring on offense. Kansas had success at home and against Big 12 opponents this season but your irrelevant stat of the day is the fact that Kansas has covered the spread in only 4 of their last 23 games played on a Thursday (go figure) and they haven't been very consistent this year and teams who lack consistency are not worth backing by double digits in a very early first game of their tournament. I like the underdog a lot here.

Oklahoma State plus the points.

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Big Ten Tournament - 1st Round


Minnesota Golden Gophers +1

Now this is some shocking stuff because I get the feeling already that a lot of people are going to jump all over Northwestern in this game but I have watched the Widcats play about three or four times this season and this is not a team I would ever want to have on in a game like this. Not against Minnesota and their size, not against Tubby Smith in a Conference Tournament. I mean at the end of the day the Wildcats have not played a single game on a neutral court in 2010-2011 and they have to play against a team like Minnesota who have not only played three times on a neutral court but who have won all three games they have played on a neutral court. Neither team had success in Big Ten Conference play and neither team had success covering spreads this season. Minnesota has won only one game in their last 10 games but the team is not as bad as they look on paper and I have no problem backing them to win at least one tournament game. Northwestern come into this tournament having won three of their last five games but those wins were against Minnesota, Indiana and Iowa...nothing to write home about and certainly nothing to get excited about come this time of the year.

So how does one explain backing a Northwestern team who have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 51.8% from the field and score 67.0 points per game. Again I mention that this is a Minnesota team with no neutral court experience this season and I just have a hard time backing them against a Minnesota team who have been decent on defense and who have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 41.6% from the field. What a huge difference (almost 10 percentage points at the end of the day) and even looking at offensive numbers, sure the Gophers score only 58.8 points per game in their last five games but they shoot 43.1% from the field and Northwestern shoot only 42.3% from the field in that same span of games. So something has to give. With both teams having problems scoring points and having problems shooting the ball, I think I like the prospect of backing a Minnesota team who have brought down 8.8 more rebounds per game than Northwestern in the last five games. That's huge when it comes to second chance points and that's huge when it comes to two teams who struggle to shoot the ball and who will rely on rebounding at both ends of the court to get secondary possessions. Minnesota is too good defensively and I'm not too sure how they lost to Northwestern last week but today is a new today and in a tournament like this, defense prevails. Really Northwestern, 51.8% shooting from your last five opponents? WOW!

Jershon Cobb (8.0 points per game) is OUT for Northwestern so there goes any advantage they had in points score per game but even then the Gophers are shooting the ball better than Northwestern and they can certainly play better defense than Northwestern like they have in recent weeks. This is now the third meeting of the season between these two teams and both times the home team won which neutralizes things now that we are on a neutral court and again I go back to the advantage Minnesota has of having played on a neutral court three times this season and won all three times. Northwestern have yet to experience this. Minnesota is now 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played on a neutral court and although they have struggled big time over the course of the last month and although they have struggled big time versus teams with a winning record, something has to give here just let it be know that if you are on Northwestern today, you are backing a team that is 1-11 ATS IN THEIR LAST 12 NEUTRAL COURT GAMES AS A FAVORITE and that's not something I am willing to touch. No thanks and they too have had a miserable times against teams with a winning record so give me Tubby Smith, his defense and his Gophers.

Minnesota plus the points.

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Big East Tournament - Quarter-Finals


Syracuse Orangemen -2.5

Thank you for the early Christmas Present and I will take this and run to the bank. Are you kidding me? Had you asked me a few weeks ago who my pick would be to win the Big East Tournament and who my pick would be to probably make a huge run in the NCAA Tournament and my answer would have been St. John's but ever since they cracked the TOP 25 teams in the Nation and ever since they showed up on those weekly rankings, the Johnnies have not been the same and it showed in their game against Rutgers yesterday. Their perimeter defense was horrible, they got into a ton of foul trouble against a very good defensive Rutgers squad and they lost to Seton Hall right before the end of the regular season. What this is expectations and hype and it's starting to fade a little bit and St. John's is trying to do too much to make things happen. I saw Syracuse play at Georgetown and at Villanova near the end of the season and this team is the real deal and they mean business. You can call this St. John's home court all you want but MSG will always be the house that Orange built and I will probably never go against Syracuse in this building, not with the support they are going to have.

St. John's is making this easy for me. I mean they couldn't defend the perimeter against a team like Rutgers yesterday and their last five opponents have now shot 37.8% from three point range so how in the world are they going to contain a team like Syracuse who have made 35.5% of their three point shots the last five games, who don't really base their offense on three point shooting but who also shoot 50.5% from the field in general those last five games? They can't and they won't. Both teams can score, both teams have some big inside physical players that will take care of the glass in this one and both teams can hit free throws but Syracuse can guard the perimeter, St. John's cannot and that's a big problem. In their last five games the Orange have allowed only 61.2 points per game and have allowed opponents to shoot only 38.1% from the field in those games, not to mention only 30.4% from three point range. Don't get me wrong, St. John's will keep this close with their ability to control the boards and take away second chance points but Syracuse is too good in games like this, they have a tremendous coach who has been here and done that before and they are not about to be upset by everyone's sexy pick to win this tournament. St. John's have been playing with fire for some time now and I think the novelty wears off a little bit after this, which will make them dangerous in the NCAA Tournament however.

How many teams can say they went to St. John's or MSG for that matter and won a game this year? Not many TOP 25 ranked teams can say it and the Red Storm knocked off 90% of the Big East at home this year but Syracuse is the one team who came in this place and laid a beatdown on St. John's and they did it via 17 point road win back in January. Yes a lot has changed since then and St. John's is a much better team but Syracuse has been getting better as well as the season progresses and I just can't go against them in this building. This goes back to the Carmelo days. St. John's have covered the spread in five straight games versus opponents with a winning record on the season but one thing I learned over the years and this has everything to do with Boeheim's coaching, is that you don't go against Syracuse when they are rolling and coming off that 100+ point game against DePaul, that's considered rolling. His teams are 8-2 ATS coming off 100+ point performances and Syracuse is now 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus Big East Conference opponents. I said it twice now in the past few weeks, the fact that St. John's cant guard the perimeter is going to be a problem for them and it almost cost them the Rutgers game. Now they step into the cage with the big boys of MSG and this is the end of their tournament. This is the juiciest line I have seen in quite some time.

Syracuse minus the points.

Three games that are kinda iffy to me... I think Ok St has the best shot at covering.

I like MN and Syr much better... already on Cuse.

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WAC Tournament - Quarter-Finals


Idaho Vandals -2

You just never know with these smaller conference tournaments because they know that only one team is going to the NCAA's so you have teams come out of nowhere playing their asses off and making runs we have not seen all season. Having said that, both of these teams actually had some success winning games away from home this season and of the 18 games Idaho has won in 2010-2011, 10 of those wins have come away from home so if you are going to back the Vandals, this is the time to do it (what's funny is that they have more road wins than they do Conference wins). It's also worth pointing out right now that Idaho is 16-9-1 ATS this season, they have been one of the best kept secrets in college basketball all year and I love those odds in Vegas. San Jose State just barely made it here with a one point win over Hawaii yesterday in their opening tournament game and they came into this tournament on a two game losing streak. Idaho on the other hand have won 6 of their last 8, one of their only losses was at Utah State and I know they want another shot at the Aggies in this tournament.

I cannot by any means back San Jose State knowing they are shooting only 39.0% from the field in their last five games. I am well aware that they are a very good rebounding team, they get a ton of second chance points because of the boards they bring down and they can definitely make shots from the outside but none of that works against Idaho. The Vandals have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 31.0% from three point range and those last five opponents have brought down only 29.2 rebounds per game completely eliminating San Jose State's advantage on the boards in this one. On top of that, Idaho is shooting 47.3% from the field in their last five games and they too have a deadly three point shooters in Jeff Ledbetter (one of the best in the Nation at 46% from three point range this season). Ledbetter is the leader on this team, he makes the big shots when they need them and he is well aware that San Jose State have struggled a bit with their perimeter defense. At the end of the day however, Idaho shoots the ball a lot better than San Jose State (last few weeks anyways), they don't get bullied on the board and don't give up many offensive rebounds and they are just more effective at both ends of the court.

I talked a little bit about Idaho and how well they have played away from home this season and look no further than their 92-89 home loss about a month ago to this very same San Jose State team. What a game it was but the Spartans came out on top and the Vandals suffered yet another home loss but go figure, they have won more games away from home this season than they have won at home (10-8 is the score) so they have the edge here. The Vandals went to San Jose State in January and won by 9 so there is more proof. Idaho comes into this game with a tremendous record against good teams going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a straight up winning record (San Jose State being the only loss so this is revenge). They are also very consistent and again one of the best spread teams in the Nation so it's appealing that they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a straight up win and even more appealing that they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall. San Jose State has covered the spread in only 3 of the last 10 meetings and now is not the time to miss out on the Idaho money train as they are on a collision course with Utah State for a spot in the NCAA's. Watch out for this team.

Idaho minus the points.

good luck

Way to go SI for yesterday. I've been tailing you for about 2 weeks now and I've always had a positive day. Thanks for that, this square appreciates it. I'm also wondering if you like a play I'm thinking about making.
I might tease Buffalo to +5 with BC -9.5. thoughts?

Thanks. I need it.

gOoD LuCk

Great job Group....Keep it rolling!!   

 S.I.!!!

Recap

Miami -3
Connecticut +5.5
Oklahoma State +14.5
Minnesota +1
Syracuse -2.5
Idaho -2



4-2 ATS today, not sure if I have time to post more.

You have been on a good run of late!!

nice job today so far..call em as i see em