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Saturday "Presystem" Plays

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Posted: #251
On a side note, I've been making a killing on OU and Auburn as they both have been getting too many points for too many games in a row now.  When the correction comes, we need to be against those teams (Just like when we were against Air Force vs New Mexico last week in the same situation)
 
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Posted: #252
[Quote: Originally Posted by KineProfessor] Man I've been on the other end of many this year, feels pretty nice to deliver one for a change. 

Doesn't change anything however, still a ton of games and a long way to go - but we will take that one.  Don't forget that is doesn't matter how they win, just need them to win.  We have 3 straight up underdog wins for every 1 , we will take that ratio any day.

I like that everyone thinks I defend the system, I can't say enough how much I hate them, but why would we not continue to cash in on overvalued, mediocre home teams with inflated lines?

Nice start to the day, congrats to everyone on board - but there is lots more work to do
[/Quote            man im with ya nice job prof. lets get some
 
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Posted: #253

ChaChing - allready in on ULM for the next dog!!!

Thx and BOL to all covers brovers!

 
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Posted: #254
 
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Posted: #255
Quote Originally Posted by PAZ:

Game just started 4pm est

I know... just giving the earlier game score from a few weeks ago if people were on the fence.

 
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Posted: #256

It never ceases to amaze me how these losers come of nowhere. KP is one of the classiest guys on this forum and he's trying to help US make $$$. Like the saying goes haters going to hate and if you have haters then that means your doing something right.

KP great picks and on that note I'll be following your night picks. If you lose any of those 3 I will find you and kill you  

 
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Posted: #257

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

On a side note, I've been making a killing on OU and Auburn as they both have been getting too many points for too many games in a row now.  When the correction comes, we need to be against those teams (Just like when we were against Air Force vs New Mexico last week in the same situation)

 Agreed, been riding both for a couple weeks now and although they both covered today, there were signs of over correction in Auburns last game against Tenn. This is a great thing to keep an eye on.

 
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Posted: #258
Looks like ULM/WKU is going to be on Fox Sports Central today.
 
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Posted: #259
 
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Posted: #260

Your not called the Professor for nothing buddy

Dang haters get a clue

    kill the dam moose

 
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Posted: #261
bradly is falling apart in the 2nd half well atleast its early in the 2nd half
 
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Posted: #262
South Alabama up early 14-10
 
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Posted: #263
good luck to all whose on the prof. train 
 
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Posted: #264
Great job so far KP! Much respect for ya man! Thanks for all the hard work and sharing with the board!
 
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Posted: #265
I'm curious... why is the "system" set at +6.5 or higher? Why not 7?
 
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Posted: #266

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

Here is my card so far (please don't be swayed by units - play how you want to - monitor, fade, follow, or pick and choose is fine - but its not a system if you don't play all the games, which again is fine)

LOCKED IN:
Greensboro +11.5 2-units
Monroe +11.5 1-unit
Tenn Martin +9 1-unit
SE Miss St +8.5 1-unit
Bradley +6 1-unit

Going to Lock in soon:
Northern Illinois +10 2-units
Louisiana Tech +7.5 (hopefully 8 or better) 1 or 2-units
South Alabama +6.5 (if I can get that number and good juice on Matchbook) 1-unit
Montana St (if I can get +8) will be either a 1 or 2-unit play

Looking at a few other plays that aren't "presystemy!"

If you know me and my posts I rarely play daily or play more than 1 or 2 games a day, but I'm compelled to make "presystemy" plays due to its success thusfar.  If (I should say when) it comes back to earth, my amount of plays will decrease drastically again.  But until then I'm willing to invest 1-unit at a time.  If a game is 2-units its because I would have bet it whether it was a "presystem" play or not

figured this could use a bump

 
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Posted: #267
Quote Originally Posted by Lar1212:

I'm curious... why is the "system" set at +6.5 or higher? Why not 7?


Everything in this system is arbituary and 6.5 represents a 3-possession game (and while most of our plays will get more than than number), its in our favor to be on the dogs, even when considering late game fouling, allowing of open 3's and layups and such.  The big thing is if the line starts at 6.5 (or is bet there quickly), don't kid yourself, these players and coaches know the number and it feeds into the motivation/focus angle I discussed in the first thread as well.  That number could be wrong (or might do better or worse in a given year) but its been fairly efficient so far so need to change yet.  I wouldn't argue with that number being higher or DD in fact, but the system didn't do much better or worse factoring in starting with the higher numbers.  When this system has its correction back down to earth - we will make adjustments as well.
 
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Posted: #268

Okay... a three-posession game is fair. However, there is a big difference in a 6-point game and a 7-point game though... as you know. Just curious.

I guess the reason I asked was because if it was 7 or higher than South Alabama would not count.

 
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Posted: #269
South Alabama down 7 at halftime: 43-36.
 
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Posted: #270
There are tons of other "variations" you could use, but the rule of thumb is that the less "perimeters" you put on a system the better it will work.  Of course, I believe the system does better in games that have lower totals (aka lower scoring games, obviously getting more points is better and even more valuable then in game where you think the total will go over 140, etc).  But by then, the "system" will get to complicated and have to many question marks.  But I encourage you to look into other "angles" like that so that when we don't use the system anymore, you still have angles to use to beat the books.  Another off-shoot of the system is to watch the "home" teams that fail to cover AGAINST us and see what they do in their next game or how they play on their next road trip. 

Let's take Western Kentucky for example, they lost straight up at home to South Alabama for a system win for us and they are now against Monroe at home (and again we are against them).  Depending on how the do, especially if they don't cover again, I would want to bet ON them in their next road game as they will be getting even more points than the should (correction from the books) and hopefully a road trip will get them away from the "home" distractions that caused their recent slide.
 
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Posted: #271
I'm so confused.
 
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Posted: #272
Quote Originally Posted by Lar1212:

Okay... a three-posession game is fair. However, there is a big difference in a 6-point game and a 7-point game though... as you know. Just curious.

I guess the reason I asked was because if it was 7 or higher than South Alabama would not count.



The point is that every single season there will be a "better" number in terms of covering, the final scores will be VERY RANDOM in these situations, we needed a limiting factor to narrow down system plays and 6.5 is it.  The number is really up to you and how you want to use it.
 
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Posted: #273
Quote Originally Posted by kevo304:

I'm so confused.


Go back to post one of this thread and click on the link provided, its really quite simple when you read that thread.
 
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Posted: #274
I hear you loud and clear. Thanks for the feedback.
 
 
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Posted: #275
come on Huskies!!
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