Saturday 1/7 CBB Plays

2010-2011: 164-127
2011-2012: 150-103 (59.3%, +40.8 units)
Thursday: 5-2 (+3.4 units)

No plays on Friday.

I've been through the whole absurdly large card and these are the spots in which I am most interested. Projected spreads in parentheses. BetOnline openers should be out mid-afternoon today. A little less than half of these probably end up on my final card.

Marquette (+11) @ Syracuse
Missouri @ Kansas State (-1)
Kansas @ Oklahoma (+7.5)
Murray State @ Austin Peay (+7.5)
Dartmouth @ Harvard 1H (-11)
Nebraska (+10.5) @ Illinois
Ole Miss @ LSU (-5.5)
Western Michigan (+6) @ Ball State
St. John's (+11) @ Cincinnati
GA Southern (+18) @ Davidson
Dayton @ Temple (-6)
Iowa State @ Texas A & M (-3)
Southern Miss (PK) @ Tulane
Denver @ South Alabama (+5)
Wofford @ Western Carolina (-1.5)
Seton Hall @ Providence (+4.5)
UL-Lafayette (+13.5) @ Middle Tennessee
George Washington @ Saint Louis 1H (-10)
Santa Clara (+21) @ Gonzaga
Houston @ UTEP (-3.5)

Texas A&M looks like a good play and so does Santa Clara +21.

I am a big fan of the Western Carolina play tomorrow. I am hoping for -2 or less. Can Denver do it twice in a row on the road? I think the UNDER is the play there if it is above 120. I think Tennessee State can handle Jacksonville State on the road but we need a good number. I think we'll see Tennessee State as a slight favorite.

I wonder what the number will be in the Iowa/Ohio State game? Iowa will be feeling good about itself after winning two consecutive on the road. Huge game for them tomorrow and hoping for a shorter line because Ohio State will handle them.

Saturday's in CBB after the New Year are fun and scary!

JFEN thoughts on Butler and Detroit tonight?  I know you have no plays just curious on your thoughts? 

The spot sets up perfectly for Western Carolina with Wofford coming off of the Charleston blowout. WCU is very good on its home floor and everyone in the league is out to get Wofford this year after the way the Terriers dominated the previous two seasons.

Denver is a possible fade at more than 3, which I suspect will be the case. Winning back-to-back road games is difficult in any league, especially with less than 48 hours between games. Plenty of motivation for South Alabama to avoid an 0-3 conference start.

Tennessee State has a ton of talent and was my darkhorse pick in the OVC but I don't know if I like them here on the final end of a 3-game road trip. Jacksonville State is really bad but TSU is so jekyll-and-hyde at times. Tough game to read.

Oh man...I'll be on a bunch of those w/ those lines. Marquette, Oklahoma, Austin Peay, St. John's, Southern Miss, S Alabama, Santa Clara, and GA Southern all look awesome. I really need to get a BetOnline account...good luck bud

Yup, A & M might be my favorite spot on the whole card. Iowa State hasn't shown anything on the road and climbed a big mountain by FINALLY beating Texas. I do like this Cyclone team but there's no doubt they've benefited from a schedule heavy on home games. We should see one of A & M's best efforts of the year and they've had the whole week to prepare for this game.

Santa Clara would be a scary play to make as Gonzaga has just been cruising along and avoided any type of letdown after the Xavier game. Santa Clara was flat against Portland and was likely looking ahead to this game. Happens all the time in the WCC as teams always have the Gonzaga game(s) circled on their calendars. Zags might be in a bit of a look-ahead with a trip to Moraga to face Saint Mary's on-tap for later in the week.

Might be some wishful thinking on my part. Those are only my projected (and in some cases, hopeful) numbers.

I've sworn off any game involving Detroit for the foreseeable future and can't really render an opinion there.

Butler/Wright State is also a really good game and the under in that one is the only play I would even consider making today. Pace should be brutally slow and Wright State's offense consists of standing around for 25-30 seconds before launching an ill-advised shot. That won't work against Butler, but there's no way in hell I could back the Bulldog offense as road chalk at this point. Whoever gets to 55 first has a very good chance of emerging as the winner.

^Should say is always a really good game.

Thanks for the opinon JFEN - keep up the great work.  Love reading and following your threads. 

Very interested to watch the MU/KST game.  I'm 5-1 on Mizzou games this year and I will be staying away from this game like the plague.  In years past I would be all over KST in this spot.  Missouri must shoot well to win with no real inside presence and they ALWAYS seems to go ice cold in Manhatten.  Meanwhile someone like Spradling will go off and hit like 7 3's.  I want to think this Tiger team has a different mentality but I'm not willing to bet on it.  I'm going to just sit back and watch this game for informational purpopses for future games.  Agree on A&M & Denver!

Thanks again for your preparation for tomorrow. I think just a fast review I see you like Nebraska against Illinois getting approx. 11.

I have expressed how I believe Illinois has no killer instinct as evident in there last game against N.W as they were down 36-31 at half went on a early second half run of 11-2 which put them in the lead at 42-33 with over 16 minutes left in the game. N.W. made just 3 points the first 9 minutes of the 2nd half and finished by scoring 9 points in the final 1.20 with Luke Mirkovic missing several layups as did Drew Crawford. 

 Illinois scored a total of 14 points the last 15.30 and if I remember correctly made maybe 1 or 2 baskets the last 6 minutes of the game. We both know how they folded like a chair against Purdue being outscored 37-6 in 2 periods with 12 minutes to play. Minny blow a 13 point lead with 12 minutes left to go ot.

Nebraska what a beginning schedule. Ohio St. Mich St and Wisc. Even though they are on the road Illinois is neither of those 3. Even if Illinois has a decent lead they will be thrilled to win a game as trust me they are very overrated just like Purdue.

If you would please check the Ohio St at Iowa game. I am seriously looking to play the over not sure what it is yet but guessing around 135. Thanks I would appreciate any info from you.

How about this, Oregon Devoe Joseph goes for 30 last nite, Justin Cobbs 18 and Wed nite Royce White had 14. These 3 players along with Colton Iverson who transferred to Col St last summer all were recruited by Minnesota Tubby Smith along with Trevor Mbakwe. Any reason the golden gophers are struggling lol.

I like Marquette a lot, couldn't believe they blew the big lead at GTOWN but still feel 11 is too much.

Random notes....hit a parlay with Oregon, Penn state and ASU last night.  Was Penn State that good or Purdue that bad?  Didn't know until this morning that ASU had suspended a couple starters.  Line on game had jumped to 9 1/2.  Strictly a play against USC...a really lousy team.  Will be looking at ASU Saturday against UCLA......looking, just looking.

A few notes I scribbled down from the top portion of the card...

-Putting the names of the schools aside, there's no reason Fordham can't give Xavier a helluva game. X is struggling all over but having particular difficulty rebounding the ball. They miss Jamel McClain's toughness and presence inside. Gaston and Bristol are a formidable duo for Fordham, which will have an awesome crowd at Rose Hill for this game.

-What an awful spot for Illinois which will likely be without starting PG Sam Maniscalco (injury). The Illini escaped Evanston with a 57-56 come-from-behind win earlier in the week and welcome in Ohio State to Assembly Hall on Tuesday. No team has played a tougher B1G schedule to this point than Nebraska (Wisconsin,  MSU, Ohio State) and Illinois has been terrible as a big favorite over the last few years. Huskers get a few injured players back and have some depth for the first time in awhile.

-How does Ole Miss respond after having Dundrecous Nelson kicked off the team? Not sure, but LSU won't be an easy game in Baton Rouge. Might look more to the under here as teams tend to galvanize when an important player is absent from the lineup and neither of these teams has any consistent offense to speak of.

-Missouri, everyone's favorite early-season darling, travels to Manhattan for an early season Big 12 showdown with Kansas State. The Tigers feasted on a dog-shit non-conference schedule (#323) and have played one (yes, one) true road game at Old Dominion. My hunch is that the severe lack of depth on the interior eventually results in Mizzou's downfall as KSU can throw a boatload of bodies at Ratliffe to wear him down throughout the game. Potentially big play here on the Wildcats.

-Kansas also finally goes on the road to face an Oklahoma squad that just got drubbed at Missouri a few nights ago. Like the Tigers, though, the Jayhawks have yet to prove themselves away from their home court and probably should not be favored by more than a few points in Norman. Their lone road win was at sleepy USC, whose environment and crowd will pale in comparison to what KU sees in Norman. Based on name recognition alone, though, most will look to back Kansas, but Kruger's teams typically respond well after losses and this might be the biggest game of the year for the Sooners.

-Call it a gut feeling, hunch, whatever...But St. John's might give Cincinnati all it can handle. The Bearcats just beat two long-time nemeses (Pitt/Notre Dame) and have a trip to Georgetown on Monday. It's easy to write off St. John's at this point, but coming off of a sizable loss at home, the motivation should be in favor of the Johnnies.

-Dartmouth is in a world of trouble traveling to Cambridge to face a pissed-off Harvard team that suffered a predictable letdown Tuesday night at Fordham. The Crimson were coming off of consecutive wins over city rival Boston College and 10-3 St. Joe's and clearly underestimated the rapidly-improving Rams. This is an experienced, veteran team that I fully expect to be focused for the Ivy League opener. Much more interested in a first half play in the area of 10-12 points.

-One of the most intriguing games of the day is in Muncie, Illinois as Western Michigan and Ball State meet in an early-season MAC West showdown. WMU's struggles have been well-documented, although playing the #3 non-conference schedule in the country will have that effect. The Broncos may again be without Flenard Whitfield and Mikey Douglas due to injury, but this team is starting to develop some quality depth. Probably won't be betting either side but this is a crucial game in the MAC race

Neither, IMO. Just a classic case of the 5-20-5 theory where Purdue wasn't ready to play and Penn State played like a desperate team hungry for a win.

Certainly agree on Illinois.

Not sure what to make of the OSU-Iowa total. Buckeyes should be able to score pretty consistently against that Iowa halfcourt defense but a focused OSU team could stifle the Hawkeye offense. I doubt Matta gets into a track meeting in that environment against a team solely built to score in transition.

Alabama @ Georgia thoughts...

I hate laying chalk on the road but Bama will beat Georgia by double digits tomorrow. Georgia has zero quaility wins and their offense will struggle against the Bama defense. Bama's team got a couple of injured players back in their blowout win over GT (GT beat Georgia earlier in the year). Green came back from shoulder injury and played pretty well. Also Bama got Steele back. He was actually a student assistant on the team due to concussion problems he had last year. He played his last game against Kentucky in the SEC tournament last year. It was thought he wouldn't play again but he was released to play against GT. He was the first guy off the bench. He is a great defender and is a terrific glue guy for a team. He handled it well and was very aggressive taking the ball into the lane. He also shoots FT's very well and more than anything gives this team an experienced backcourt player. His inclusion into the rotation looks like a major shot in the arm for this team. I think you will see much more pressure and more trapping from Bama now that they have more depth. Bama has a decided advantage inside tomorrow as well. Bama plays at Georgia, LSU, at Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and at Kentucky their first 5 conference games. The importance of winning this one is amplified by the difficulty of their first few games in conference play. They have three losses to Georgetown, at Dayton, and Kansas State (in KC) but they were playing poorly during that stretch. They look like they have found their legs again and I expect a great effort tomorrow.

-First team to 45 points wins the Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois game. All jokes aside, this is the worst game of the day by any standard and anyone who either attends or watches will no longer like the game of basketball by the time the final buzzer sounds.

-Been waiting on this Marquette-Syracuse game for a couple weeks and very happy the Eagles lost to Georgetown the other night. Syracuse is finally facing a team that can actually match its depth and tenacity. I've said before and don't have an explanation for it, but Marquette games against high-quality competition have a bizarre habit of always coming down to the wire. Over the previous two seasons, Marquette has lost just two Big East games by more than 8 points. Lone concern is Marquette keeping 'Cuse from doing significant damage on the offensive glass.

-Normally I'd be all over the Temple let-down angle from the Duke game but actually lean the other way here. Schematically, the Owls take away everything Dayton wants to do (pass the ball around the perimeter and shoot 3's) and won't be forced to compensate for its thin interior with Josh Benson out of the year. Temple is brutally tough at the Liacouras Center and Dayton is coming off of its own upset win, beating Saint Louis in OT.

-Another great Big 12 spot is Iowa State visiting Texas A & M. I really love this year's Cyclone team with Hoiberg at the helm and a slew of talented transfers all over the floor. But ISU has left its home floor twice (Drake and Michigan) and been thoroughly outclassed on both occasions. After a massive win over Texas (first in several years), ISU could be in a letdown spot. Opposite story for A & M, which has underachieved to this point in the season but has the perfect defensive scheme to curtail the prolific ISU shooting attack.

-Denver gets a major road win at Arkansas State and now goes to South Alabama for another roadie. The Pioneers will be slight favorites, but stringing together consecutive road wins in the Sun Belt is a tall order. South Alabama should have some motivation to avoid an 0-3 SBC start.

-Interesting situation for Seton Hall coming off of back-to-back convincing home wins over West Virginia and UCONN. Providence is a tough out at home and the Hall's only true road games this year were at Dayton and 'Cuse.

I think Illinois is better off without Sammy, especially defensively, but yah, bad spot for them and a goooooooooood spot for an under.

Thank you that makes sense appreciate your answer.

Stay hot my friend! Here's my take on A&M/Iowa St...

I was super impressed with Iowa St vs Texas, but when ESPN posted their upcoming schedule, I immediately noticed the Texas/Kansas sandwich. I have learned (sometimes the hard way) over the years that there are some teams that can handle look-ahead and letdown situations. Those teams consist mostly of upperclassmen, guys have have been in those situations many times before.  Even though I love their coach and their talent, this Cyclone team is made up of mostly transfers. I don't see them as being the type of team that can handle such a bad scheduling spot.

can't even imagine seeing Santa Clara getting 15 nevermind 21

Such good stuff you have here that I feel bad about this, but Ball State is in Indiana, not Illinois.