It's hard not to believe Texas will cover at home against Baylor.
I will admit that -11.5 is a great line for a team that I have thoroughly eye-tested and highly believe in going to the Final Four, regardless of playing home or away. A Texas team that can go 15-4 ATS and win by double-digits in ALL of their last 9 conference games this year. Texas is a money-making machine ATS.
Plain English: THEY EXCEED EXPECTATIONS
The almighty Vegas can't tell them who they are, they show who they are.
Ok, Ok, Ok,...You want facts, stats, and good info that makes you feel good. Here we go:
There are five games that can be compared to see what it would be like if Texas played Baylor. I say if, obviously, because they haven't played them yet.
#1 Both teams played Texas A&M away on THEIR court. Texas won by 20 points while Baylor needed OverTime to beat them by 2 points. With the common-denominator of A&M, Texas beats Baylor by 18 points on a nuetral court.
#2 Both teams played Texas Tech away on THEIR court. Texas won by 31, Baylor by 12. Texas beats Baylor by 19 on a nuetral court. (You may be catching on to my calculations here, figure out your own numbers for the last three)
#3 gets a little tricky with Oklahoma. Both played Oklahoma at home. Texas won by 20, Baylor by 13.
Baylor ALSO played them a second time this year, away on their court, LOSING by 7.
#4 is probably their closest comparison: Oklahoma St. Baylor played them at home and won by 19. Texas played away on their court and won by 15.
#5 gives Texas a superb advantage of comparison; Kansas. Texas played AWAY @ Kansas and won by 11 points while Baylor played @ HOME and lost by 20 points.
Do some of your own math and come up with a number for Texas to win by.
THEY PLAYED ALL 5 OF THESE TEAMS IN EXACTLY THE SAME ORDER: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma St, and then Texas A&M
If a team was weak, Texas won by more, if a team was strong, they won by the lesser of the double digits.
Example: The weak Texas Tech,.. beat them by 31 on their court. The strong Kansas Jayhawks on their court, beat them by only 11.
Baylorhas some great athleticism and possibly an athletic enough tall guy, big enough to be picked early in the NBA draft. a 6'10" freshman Perry Jones is efficient down low.
If they aren't pushing the ball down low to Jones, they'll look to sneak the ball into Quincy Acy, a 6'7" junior who also can work his way in for high percentage shots.
I will admit that Baylor has a better 2-pt shooting % becuz of those 2 front-courters. But Baylor WILL have a tough time trying to get it to them through a SOLID Texas D.
Their leading scorer, Dunn, can shoot extremely well behind the 3-pt line, but he won't be shooting as well against the #1 defense in the nation. He works hard to draw fouls and put his 82.4% FT shooting on the board.
HAVE YOU MET THE TEXASD YET?!?!?!
You are going to want to if you haven't already. This D has proven hard as hell to crack open for points, for ANY team thus far.
Texas holds teams to 28.1% shooting from 3-pt land and only 39% inside that line for 2-ptrs. That is UNBELIEVABLE! Unless you've met the TexasD already of course.
Baylor is quite the opposite on defense Giving up a 34.8% 3-pt % and 44.6% from 2. By no means are those bad numbers, they are quite average in the NCAA. Their 2P% IS better than the average NCAA Div 1 team, but NOT comparable to the TexasD.
Effective FG% (look it up if you don't know what EFFECTIVE FG% is)
Texas holds to UNDER 40%....Baylor holds to 47.5%.
Don't like shooting percentages? Let's talk Points Per Game (PPG):
Texas PPG FOR: 76.1 PPG AGAINST: 59.7
Baylor PPG FOR: 72.3 PPG AGAINST: 62.8
Texas AVG Margin of Win: 16.4 pts
Baylor AVG Margin of Win: 9.5 pts
Texas ATS: 15-4
Baylor ATS: 5-11
This right here is important. This is the story of these two teams this year. Very important you understand this:
Texas has EXCEEDED themselves in expectations this year while Baylor was touted as a "top-of-their-conference" team during the preseason.
THESE ARE TWO TEAMS GOING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS, as their ATS shows.
That's EXACTLY what ATS (Against The Spread) means: HOW THEY'VE PERFORMED AGAINST THEIR EXPECTATIONS.
Now at certain points the almightly Vegas will push that number towards making it harder for the good ATS team to cover that spread and make it easier for the bad ATS team to cover.
THAT is when you don't bet.
This is not one of those times.
There are a lot of people that are doubting Texas' great ATS record. Which is pretty odd, because I run into alot of people who like to look BACK into the past and dig up crazy little trends that they bet on.
Bet on the past when today is the present?!?!? What do the teams from over a century ago mean about this team that I am betting on today?!?!?
Don't get me wrong, there are certain things you get out of trends. But not a lot of people UNDERSTAND trends. People see a trend of,....for example....the under has gone 19-1 over the past 20 times these teams have played each other. People see that and bet the under without realizing some of those unders were decades ago.
Give me a CURRENT trend that tells me something about these players here that are playing here TODAY and I'll listen.
AND even if a trend is current, they don't check out the actual facts of it (lazy people, give them a trend and they run with it). Some of those unders and overs, really were overs and unders against the Total that you are about to bet on now. Any team can hit an under when the total was 182 (ha, ha).
DO RESEARCH PEOPLE. OR READ PEOPLE'S WRITE-UPS THAT ACTUALLY HAVE A SACK O NUTS BENEATH IT.
Ok, Ok, Ok,...I'm rambling on about stuff that means more about my pet-peeves of the betting world than the game at hand.
Are you still there?!.......
TexasD's play for Texas on Saturday , February 12, 2011:
Texas -11.5
Cheap chalk for a team winning by double-digits in their last 9 conference games, regardless of home or away.
Now that's a trend
def. like texas but it's still a lot of points 
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