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#1
YTD: 14-5 (0-1 last play on 1/16)
I grabbed the opening number for this over earlier this afternoon. There already has been some line movement up since then so I wanted to make this post tonight. Obviously, some of the value has been negated, but I still like this over up to anything under 140.
Play: Rhode Island / Fordham Over 133
There are some great statistical correlations and situations to like about this match up. First, Rhode Island has played 8 opponents this year that rank in the top 200 nationally with respect to adjusted pace. Every one of those 8 games finished at 133+. Now we get URI facing a Fordham team that will be the 2nd fastest team they have seen this year. Fordham comes in averaging 68.8 possessions per game (#82). The fastest team they've faced this year was actually in their last game vs Duquesne. That game finished at 149 on 71 possessions--and the Dukes pace is only +0.3 possessions faster than Fordham so I would expect a similar tempo here.
Second, Fordham is coming of a 5 game stretch of playing opponents who all rank in the top 80 with respect to adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing less than .952 points per possession. Now they get to face a URI team on the opposite end of the spectrum. Rhode Island is allowing 1.082 points per possession (#292) and a staggering 55.4% on 2PA (#333). In the other four games this season that Fordham faced a defense ranked #290 or lower like they will in this match up, three of them went over 133 and Fordham managed to score 64+ points in each.
This should be a relatively close game so an end game fouling scenario could be in the cards. But more importantly, a total in the low 130's is very low for a game that should approach 70 possessions per team. KenPom predicts 69 possessions.
Now could this go under, of course it could. Admittedly, Fordham at times has struggled shooting the ball this year, only scoring 0.92 points per possession with respect to adjusted offensive efficiency (#293). But they have shown improvement recently and just as when I backed them in an over vs UMass on 1/5, I think the combination of playing at home and a porous Rhode Island defense is just the recipe to breakout offensively.
Now if you have read my threads before, you will know that I typically limit myself to one play per night. However, there is one current trend that is very difficult to ignore
Bonus Play: Drake / Southern Illinois Over 139
The angle is this one is simple. The Salukis are on an unbelievable (and quiet in my opinion) run of 11 straight overs. The over run coincided with the return of Kendal Brown-Surles (discipline), who now is the team's second leading scorer, as well as Davante Drinkard (removed sophomore redshirt) and Dantiel Daniels (injury). In the 10 games since their trip to Hawaii to play in the Diamond Head Classic, the team has only played to one total under 139 (and that was 138 vs Evansville). Furthermore, their last four games have averaged 70.5 possessions--fairly significant when considered how "slow" teams in the Missouri Valley Conference tend to play.
Best of luck if you decide to make either either play
I grabbed the opening number for this over earlier this afternoon. There already has been some line movement up since then so I wanted to make this post tonight. Obviously, some of the value has been negated, but I still like this over up to anything under 140.
Play: Rhode Island / Fordham Over 133
There are some great statistical correlations and situations to like about this match up. First, Rhode Island has played 8 opponents this year that rank in the top 200 nationally with respect to adjusted pace. Every one of those 8 games finished at 133+. Now we get URI facing a Fordham team that will be the 2nd fastest team they have seen this year. Fordham comes in averaging 68.8 possessions per game (#82). The fastest team they've faced this year was actually in their last game vs Duquesne. That game finished at 149 on 71 possessions--and the Dukes pace is only +0.3 possessions faster than Fordham so I would expect a similar tempo here.
Second, Fordham is coming of a 5 game stretch of playing opponents who all rank in the top 80 with respect to adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing less than .952 points per possession. Now they get to face a URI team on the opposite end of the spectrum. Rhode Island is allowing 1.082 points per possession (#292) and a staggering 55.4% on 2PA (#333). In the other four games this season that Fordham faced a defense ranked #290 or lower like they will in this match up, three of them went over 133 and Fordham managed to score 64+ points in each.
This should be a relatively close game so an end game fouling scenario could be in the cards. But more importantly, a total in the low 130's is very low for a game that should approach 70 possessions per team. KenPom predicts 69 possessions.
Now could this go under, of course it could. Admittedly, Fordham at times has struggled shooting the ball this year, only scoring 0.92 points per possession with respect to adjusted offensive efficiency (#293). But they have shown improvement recently and just as when I backed them in an over vs UMass on 1/5, I think the combination of playing at home and a porous Rhode Island defense is just the recipe to breakout offensively.
Now if you have read my threads before, you will know that I typically limit myself to one play per night. However, there is one current trend that is very difficult to ignore
Bonus Play: Drake / Southern Illinois Over 139
The angle is this one is simple. The Salukis are on an unbelievable (and quiet in my opinion) run of 11 straight overs. The over run coincided with the return of Kendal Brown-Surles (discipline), who now is the team's second leading scorer, as well as Davante Drinkard (removed sophomore redshirt) and Dantiel Daniels (injury). In the 10 games since their trip to Hawaii to play in the Diamond Head Classic, the team has only played to one total under 139 (and that was 138 vs Evansville). Furthermore, their last four games have averaged 70.5 possessions--fairly significant when considered how "slow" teams in the Missouri Valley Conference tend to play.
Best of luck if you decide to make either either play
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