Proof Books Are Very Good at Setting Lines in CBB

Quote Originally Posted by PopsPiedmont:

One Thing Hasn’t Changed: The Goal of Oddsmakers

One thing that hasn’t changed since the early days of sports betting is the ultimate aim set by the sportsbooks: balance the action on both sides of a wager.

If you’ve read our guide https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/betting-101/how-to-read-sports-odds/, you’ll know that you can calculate the implied probability of an event happening simply by performing a few simple calculations.

However, betting lines aren’t designed to reflect the real and accurate probability of either outcome. After all, one of the best strategies to getting an edge over your sportsbook is making a wager when you think there’s a discrepancy between the real probability of an event and the implied probability determined from a betting line.

How Are Odds Determined?

Odds are engineered to attract equal action on both sides of a betting line. In a perfect world, a sportsbook receives equal betting volume on both sides of a wager. Then – win or lose – they’ll make 5-10% on the https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/betting-101/what-is-the-vigorish/.

As such, it’s integral to understand that the chief function of oddsmakers isn’t to create an accurate (and probable) picture of reality: It’s to mitigate your sportsbook’s risk. Think of contemporary oddsmakers as risk management professionals, as well as expert sports predictors.

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

The not-so-well-kept secret is that KenPom has been setting the lines for the last several years. Oddsmakers do very little work in CBB.

Quote Originally Posted by In2it:

Put this article in Google Search and the original Copy Right date was 1998? BOL tonight!!!

Quote Originally Posted by skoonr3:

In2it awesome post...always read most your posts...I have a bad habit of betting before tips,,,not the best lines, thx, JFen good info as always thx for taking the time both of you....

Quote Originally Posted by skoonr3:

omgawd hate to say.,,,yer a duche bro...IN2it again nice post man....poppy p proceed to get the precious last word......

Quote Originally Posted by In2it:

Whatever combination of analytics being used by the BOOKS they are very good.  This confirms how important it is to get the best line or "sharpest" line and if the line on a team you like moves 1 or 2 points against you, it might be smart to stay away from the game. Look at how many outcomes were settled within a point of the line. Also, this was on Sunday when the card is not that large and look at how close all of these games were yesterday to the hitting the line.   Stonybrook -6 vs. Delaware won by 6      (74-68)    Exact HIT Elon -1 vs. Canisius lost by 1                  (91-92)     2 point cover Niagra -2.5 vs. Cornell won by 3             (77-74)     1/2 point cover Fordham -6.5 vs. Howard wond by 7        (74-67)    1/2 point cover Ill. State -10 vs. Cleve. St. won by 11       (88-77)   1 point cover U. Vermont -5 vs. N. Eastern won by 5      (75-70)   Exact HIT UCF -26 vs. Stetson won by 25                 (90-65)   1 point cover S. Fran -13.5 over Cal. State won by 14     (68-54)   1/2 point cover N. Mexico -13.5 vs. Cent. Ark won by 12    (82-70)   Exact HIT Hartford -3 vs. Oakland won by 5               (87-82)   2 point cover St. Johns -17 vs. Wagner won by 15        (73-58)      2 point cover Pacific -3.5 vs. Cal. St. North won by 2       (79-77)    2 point cover Ole Miss -19 vs. Tenn. Chat. won by 19      (90-70)     1 point cover N. KY -6.5 vs. Miami O. won by 6               (72-66)     1/2 point cover Here are 14 games on a Sunday where the outcome was decided within 2 points of the line.  Damn, these Books are pretty good or maybe this was a highly unusual day.

Quote Originally Posted by redtear2989:

The real lesson in all of this , and something I can't preach enough of.  BUY THE HOOK!!!

Quote Originally Posted by In2it:

Agree Red Tear, I always buy if I am laying -4.5 or -24.5 down off that half point or buy the extra half if I have the favorite and was about to make that point, but buying points will usually get you a few Posters around here telling you what a stupid move that is, but in CBB it sometimes only costs you about 4% more vig and I think it comes into play more that 4% of the time as sharp as the lines are these days.BOL and stay hot!!!