Original March Madness Bracket Breakdown -- What Can we Learn from the Past?

Question

My Co-workers and I have spent the last couple days dissecting last years bracket to see if there was any trends. We weren't looking for anything particular but here are the results.

This all our original research, so yes, I am sure there is an error here or there but it should be very accurate. We've broken it up in several post in hopes of making it a little easier to read although I am concerned about it formatting correctly. We'll see.

Any bullet points are either an observation from that data, a random stat, or a personal opinion. However, it doesn't mean I believe it's bound to repeat itself, I am just sharing the raw data and making some observations.

XavierSingleton · Answer

My Co-workers and I have spent the last couple days dissecting last years bracket to see if there was any trends. We weren't looking for anything particular but here are the results.

This all our original research, so yes, I am sure there is an error here or there but it should be very accurate. We've broken it up in several post in hopes of making it a little easier to read although I am concerned about it formatting correctly. We'll see.

Any bullet points are either an observation from that data, a random stat, or a personal opinion. However, it doesn't mean I believe it's bound to repeat itself, I am just sharing the raw data and making some observations.

XavierSingleton · Answer

FINAL FOUR BY Seeds Last 5 YearsYEARFinal Four SeedsChampionby seed20122011          1, 2, 2, 4           3, 4, 8, 111320101, 2, 5, 5120091, 1, 2, 3120081, 1, 1, 1120071, 1, 2, 21&#xB7;        #1 Seeds have WON 5 of the last 6&#xB7;        The highest seed remaining in final four has won last 6.

XavierSingleton · Answer

Since 2007 Final Four by seedsSeeds# of Final Fours1 seed    10 of 24  2 seed    6 of 243 seed    2 of 244 seed    2 of 245 seed    2 of 24&gt;5seed    2 of 24Since 1979 #1 seeds have claimed 83 of 140 Final Four Slots (59%)All Number #1 seeds made it to the Sweet 16 last Year. Yet, The Previous two years, One #1 Seeds have been eliminated before the round of 16 each timeOnly One #4 Seed has ever Won it All

XavierSingleton · Answer

Mid Majors and Sweet 16Year# of Mid Major teams in Sweet 1620122011         0              52010         52009         22008         22007         3&#xB7;        An average of 3 Mid Majors have made it to the Sweet 16 the last 6 years&#xB7;    Although last year was the exception to the rule, I recommend putting at least 2 Mid Majors in getting at least the Sweet 16

XavierSingleton · Answer

Unable to post this next one because more than 7800 characters... Mods can you help with that?

XavierSingleton · Answer

2012 March Madness Tournament SU / ATS by SeedUnable to Post Because too Long&#xB7;        Round of 64 SU/ATS by Seed and YearUnable to post because too Long

XavierSingleton · Answer

Favorites SU/ATS Record By Round in 2012Unable to post because too long

XavierSingleton · Answer

Overall 2012 March Madness Bracket BreakdownOkay I give up... Will wait until someone has a suggestion or a Mod can help. I guess my "tables" are too many characters, even though they are not..... Suggestions?

XavierSingleton · Answer

*Season Categories*SU RecordWinning % for Better Category Ranking TeamBetter PPG Offense Team(BO)35-28 Won 55.56%

XavierSingleton · Answer

Better PPG Defense Team(BD)43-20Won 68.25%Bigger Point Differential Team (BP)41-22Won 65.01%Better Rebounding Team(BR)50-13Won 79.37%Better FG % Offense Team(BPGO)32-29Won 52.45%

XavierSingleton · Answer

Better FG % Defense Team(BPGD)42-20Won 67.74%Team with More Blocks(BBlk)42-21Won 66.67%&#xB7;         The better offensive team less, or so it seems (see below for more details).&#xB7;         The Better Defensive team matters greatly. &#xB7;         Team rebounding was the biggest indicator of which team would win outright.&#xB7;         Reason BLK was chosen as a category is because Kentucky was #1 in the country in Blocks and wanted to see if there was any correlation. Surprisingly there was a correlation.&#xB7;         If I have time before Tournament, I would like to add Turnovers as a category. &#xB7;      Most amazing combination. If the better defensive team and the better rebounding team are the same 31-2 SU Record in 2012 Bracket

XavierSingleton · Answer

&#xB7;        Round of 64 SU/ATS by Seed and YearSeed v SeedSU Last 6 YearsATSLast 6 YearsSU2011ATS2011SU2012ATS 20121 v1620-013-74-03-14-02-2

XavierSingleton · Answer

2 v 1518-211-94-02-22-22-23 v 1419-113-5-22-1-14-04-02-1-1

XavierSingleton · Answer

4 v 1314-610-103-11-33-13-15 v 1211-98-123-12-22-22-2

XavierSingleton · Answer

6 v 1111-98-11-11-31-32-22-27 v 1010-108-122-21-32-22-2

XavierSingleton · Answer

8 v 911-99-112-21-33-13-1&#xB7;        Interesting Fact: In Round of 64, Underdogs Won SU in 10 of 13 ATS Wins in 2012

XavierSingleton · Answer

I KNOW THIS IS GETTING UGLY TO LOOK AT... ILL POST IT ALL ON MY BLOG SO YOU CAN SEE IT THE WAY IT WAS MEANT TO BE SEEN...

XavierSingleton · Answer

2012 March Madness Tournament SU / ATS by Seed(Excludes same seed vs same seed matchups)seed#1#2#3#4SU13-38-36-48-3ATS8-85-63-69-3

XavierSingleton · Answer

seed#5#6#7#8SU2-43-44-43-4ATS2-43-45-32-4-1

XavierSingleton · Answer

seed#9#10#11#12SU1-43-43-42-4ATS2-25-24-33-3

XavierSingleton · Answer

seed#13#14#15#16SU2-40-42-20-4ATS3-31-2-12-42-2&#xB7;        Blinding betting a seed would have only been profitable with 4 of the 16 seeds

XavierSingleton · Answer

Favorites SU/ATS Record By Round in 2012 Fav Record SUFav Record ATSRound of 6422-1017-13-2Round of 3212-48-8Sweet 166-22-6

XavierSingleton · Answer

Elite 84-04-0Final 41-10-2Championship1-00-1OVERALL46-1732-29-2&#xB7;       Uninteresting Note: Linemakers were damn good last year.

XavierSingleton · Answer

Overall 2012 March Madness Bracket Breakdown*Season Categories*SU RecordWinning % for Better Category Ranking TeamBetter PPG Offense Team(BO)35-28 Won 55.56%Better PPG Defense Team(BD)43-20Won 68.25%Bigger Point Differential Team (BP)41-22Won 65.01%

XavierSingleton · Answer

Better Rebounding Team(BR)50-13Won 79.37%Better FG % Offense Team(BPGO)32-29Won 52.45%Better FG % Defense Team(BPGD)42-20Won 67.74%Team with More Blocks(BBlk)42-21Won 66.67%

*Season Categories*	SU Record	Winning % for Better Category Ranking Team
Better PPG Offense Team (BO)	35-28	Won 55.56%

*Season Categories*	SU Record	Winning % for Better Category Ranking Team
Better PPG Offense Team (BO)	35-28	Won 55.56%

Better PPG Defense Team (BD)	43-20	Won 68.25%
Bigger Point Differential Team (BP)	41-22	Won 65.01%
Better Rebounding Team (BR)	50-13	Won 79.37%
Better FG % Offense Team (BPGO)	32-29	Won 52.45%

Better PPG Defense Team (BD)	43-20	Won 68.25%
Bigger Point Differential Team (BP)	41-22	Won 65.01%
Better Rebounding Team (BR)	50-13	Won 79.37%
Better FG % Offense Team (BPGO)	32-29	Won 52.45%

Better FG % Defense Team (BPGD)	42-20	Won 67.74%
Team with More Blocks (BBlk)	42-21	Won 66.67%

YEAR	Final Four Seeds	Champion by seed
2012 2011	1, 2, 2, 4 3, 4, 8, 11	1 3
2010	1, 2, 5, 5	1
2009	1, 1, 2, 3	1
2008	1, 1, 1, 1	1
2007	1, 1, 2, 2	1

Seeds	# of Final Fours
1 seed	10 of 24
2 seed	6 of 24
3 seed	2 of 24
4 seed	2 of 24
5 seed	2 of 24
>5seed	2 of 24

Year	# of Mid Major teams in Sweet 16
2012 2011	0 5
2010	5
2009	2
2008	2
2007	3

Seed v Seed	SU Last 6 Years	ATS Last 6 Years	SU 2011	ATS 2011	SU 2012	ATS 2012
1 v16	20-0	13-7	4-0	3-1	4-0	2-2

2 v 15	18-2	11-9	4-0	2-2	2-2	2-2
3 v 14	19-1	13-5-2	2-1-1	4-0	4-0	2-1-1

4 v 13	14-6	10-10	3-1	1-3	3-1	3-1
5 v 12	11-9	8-12	3-1	2-2	2-2	2-2

6 v 11	11-9	8-11-1	1-3	1-3	2-2	2-2
7 v 10	10-10	8-12	2-2	1-3	2-2	2-2

seed	#1	#2	#3	#4
SU	13-3	8-3	6-4	8-3
ATS	8-8	5-6	3-6	9-3

seed	#5	#6	#7	#8
SU	2-4	3-4	4-4	3-4
ATS	2-4	3-4	5-3	2-4-1

seed	#9	#10	#11	#12
SU	1-4	3-4	3-4	2-4
ATS	2-2	5-2	4-3	3-3

seed	#13	#14	#15	#16
SU	2-4	0-4	2-2	0-4
ATS	3-3	1-2-1	2-4	2-2

seed	#13	#14	#15	#16
SU	2-4	0-4	2-2	0-4
ATS	3-3	1-2-1	2-4	2-2

	Fav Record SU	Fav Record ATS
Round of 64	22-10	17-13-2
Round of 32	12-4	8-8
Sweet 16	6-2	2-6

	Fav Record SU	Fav Record ATS
Round of 64	22-10	17-13-2
Round of 32	12-4	8-8
Sweet 16	6-2	2-6

Elite 8	4-0	4-0
Final 4	1-1	0-2
Championship	1-0	0-1
OVERALL	46-17	32-29-2

Original March Madness Bracket Breakdown -- What Can we Learn from the Past?

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