NCAAB WED

No not right now it has become way to popular. Everytime I want to I see 80% backing that side...

UNC,

Completely agree with the Illinois St play. This line will be -6.5 by tip. Illinois St is also 6-3-1 ATS L10 in the series too and a win will help the Redbirds inch a step closer to clinching a Top 3 finish so they can avoid UNI until the championship round. Huge game at home and I think they put away MSU tomorrow rather easily.

As for the USU play, I think this line is a bit too high (I capped it at -8). Since their meeting in early January, when La. Tech absolutely pasted the Aggies, these teams have gone in opposite directions with USU taking control of the WAC where LT has failed to cover ATS in their L7 games, and going 2-7 ATS in nine although they have won most of their games in that span to keep within distance of the Aggies.

Previous years, USU has owned this matchup but I think LT's seniors have come together to try and make a run at an NCAA bid. Although not a deep team, they have a solid 3 man rotating bench in Redding, Jackson and Bartlett that eat up minutes, play solid defense and can cleanup a loose ball for a put back or tip-in. 

If LT gets in foul trouble early tomorrow though, this game WILL be a blowout. But the WAC officials have done a good job of letting teams play this year in the games I've watched and I figure the WAC's best crew will be overseeing this game. I think the best way to stop LT is the way NMSU has schemed in their two matchups versus the Bulldogs by collapsing down on Rolle and covering Guyton like a blanket and let the rest of the team out shoot them. Problem is New Mexico St did a good job of utilizing Rahman's size against Rolle in the low post to prohibit Rolle from scoring with his back to the basket. I know that USU is a balanced, disciplined team but I think Magnum Rolle has every statistical advantage versus the Aggies' frontcourt (size and length namely). Wesley and Bendall are very serviceable players but contending with Rolle is a bit different. And USU will not have Rahman suiting up for them tomorrow. If USU tries to provide over the top help, LT does a great job of rotating the ball and if left open, Guyton and Gibson have shown the ability to score in bunches and should do fine shooting over USU's shifting weakside defense.

Could you possibly overestimating the revenge factor for USU when considering this as a play? Appreciate your thoughts on this game. I do believe the Aggies win tonight and take complete control of the WAC but this number is bugging me for some reason.