NCAAB picks, Saturday, November 20

YTD: 12-1-1, +23.05 units
Pac-10 YTD:  3-0, +6.00 units
UCLA YTD: 1-0, +2.00 units

Appreciate all the love I've been getting recently, but let's be honest here -- I'm realistic enough to realize that hot starts like I have had do not sustain themselves over the course of an entire season. They just don't. I'm also definitely, in my mind, not as good of a capper as my record suggest. There is still a ton that I have to learn about capping.

In statistics, I've definitely been an "outlier" in terms of performance and I'm just hoping to put off my regression towards the mean for as long as I possibly can. SolidCapper posted in my last thread and is right -- now might be the time to fade me. It's tough to sustain the level of early success that I have had.

That being said, on to today's card, will be updated throughout the day as I review the matchups:

1. Sacramento State +23 (-136), 1.36 to win 1 -- Oregon State shouldn't be laying more than 20 points to ANYONE. Not because they aren't a talented, well coached squad (cause they are), but rather because the nature of their offensive game plan means that they will never have a ton of possession or put up 100 points like a Tennessee or something. I don't have the numbers from last year, but I bet that OSU's Kenpom pace rating was near the bottom of the NCAA ranks. Look at OSU's scores this year: loses to Texas Tech 64-60, beats South Dakota 62-47, and loses to Texas A&M CC (sidenote: what? really?) 67-43. IMO, there just are not enough possessions in this game to allow OSU to cover the 23. I'll even lay the heavy juice on it to get that many points.

That's it for right now, best of luck to everyone.

I'm looking at this UNI and ECU game and leaning towards UNI laying the 13.5 -- they are coming off of a disappointing loss to DePaul in which they were favored by nine points and now get to catch an East Carolina school which is down on its luck to start the season and just got a beatdown from Tennessee. Seems like a spot for a good squad like UNI to come out pissed off whereas I'd expect the exact opposite reaction from ECU -- time to lay down.

Curious as to the thoughts of others

OSU's adjusted Tempo last year was a 58.1 which placed them at 343 on the list!

Great start to the season and I couldn't agree more about the Beavers. That game would have to really go all OSU's way for them to cover that line. I'm looking at it hard myself. ECU is awful. I agree with your hunch that get rolled today. Good luck on your card today.

"Great start to the season and I couldn't agree more about the Beavers. That game would have to really go all OSU's way for them to cover that line. I'm looking at it hard myself. ECU is awful. I agree with your hunch that get rolled today. Good luck on your card today."

Yeah, OSU will have to play the entire 40 minutes in order to cover this line -- if they have even a couple lapses in play, Sac State should be able to capitalize.

My only concern about ECU is that UNI doesn't usually crush squads, but coming off a loss to Depaul might change that.

"OSU's adjusted Tempo last year was a 58.1 which placed them at 343 on the list!"

Well there ya go. I never looked at the pace stats but I watched enough of Robinson's OSU squad last year to know it. Thanks for backing me up with the numbers.

Kapono...very nice start to the year....no lean to the ecu/uni game but take a look at niagra today......they are my biggest play yet this young season....UCF is 3 and 0 and has looked pretty good this young season...they beat Auburn and niagra lost to Auburn yet Niagra is still favored...the books know who the better team is in this matchup and this Niagra team is very good and should compete for a conference championship w Siena and they return their two top leading scorers who are studs.  I know Lewis is quest but they have plenty of other scoring depth to picj up the slack if he doesnt play.....i see niagra by 8 to 12.....just thought i would thro it out there and get your thoughts....BOL TO YOU

GL today brother, keep up the good work

Hell of a start!

Adding:

2. Northern Iowa -13.5 (+100), 1 to win 1 -- see the above reasoning.

gabs -- I'll take a look at that for sure, thanks for the heads-up. I made a lot of money with Niagara last year. You are definitely right that its a somewhat confusing line due to the rare fact that both teams have played a common opponent somewhat.

shit i can only get Sacramento State at +21

would you still take the points

i always hated stats class

keep it up bro

.....gl today w/ ur plays K................

Stoppa -- I'm obviously much more comfortable with the 23, you know how often one or two points can make a HUGE difference in CBB games. I'd probably play it at 21, but since I could get the 23 with increased juice I took that instead. Obviously make the play at your own risk.

bracks, UNC, LaDaddy -- thanks for stopping in guys

nbafan -- Interestingly enough, I felt like statistics was one of the greatest classes I took at UCLA. It really helps you understand randomness and how to analyze a set of data. Not always easy, but definitely helpful in the long run

Nice start,another thing you have going for you is you limit your plays,that means to me your trying to make money not just playing for action,which is why I like to see who your on,GL today

And the guy that wants to fade you,might wait until you cool off a bit,lol

JEG -- in my earlier days, I would have said "wow I'm on fire, time to go big" and would have played 6 or 7 games. Now that I've been doing this somewhat seriously for probably 3-4 years, I've realized that it truly is a marathon. Not every day will have games that are good spots to hit, and playing a game just for the sake of playing a game or because you want action is a road to disaster.

I'm just trying to stay patient and not let the hot start effect how I am evaluating my plays.

But SolidCapper from last night's thread is right -- whenever someone starts out this hot, the law of statistics would lead you to believe that they are going to cool off. If you can harness that and fade the person, you can capitalize. The hard part is knowing when the hot streak is over -- definitely not an easy task.

Thanks for stopping in JEG

Sac +21    i believe in u

thanks kapono good luck tonight

SAC ST up 11....

nice 30-18 start for sac townnn baby .. leeeeeets go make that $$$

Holy crap Sac State up 15?



Definitely didn't see that happening but it's a welcome development

lukn good on sac!!!   

Well said!  Very well said.

sac st hitting some 3s