Posted:
#1
Very strong play tonight on the Dayton Flyers -4 against Seton Hall.
There are three major reason for the play here (all have been extraordinary winning angles for me over the years, but when combined are rare and Low Post worthy.) Many of my best posts on Covers CBB boards have been from these types of situations.
Reason (1)...this is the first away game of the year of the year for Seton Hall.... and Dayton is a very difficult venue for road teams to play their first away game of the year.
Dayton's last 191 regular season home games have had attendance of at least 11,000 fans per game. In the last 15 years, 99% of UD’s home games have drawn at least 10,000 (that is 430 out of 433 home games) including the last 229 regular season games in a row.
Over the last six years on Dayton's Tom Blackburn Court, the Flyers are 83-12. The 83 victories are the eighth-most in the NCAA since the 2006-07 season. Just ahead of Dayton are Ohio State (96), Kansas (95), Syracuse (91), Pittsburgh (91), Texas A&M (88), UNLV (87) and Florida (86). Dayton won its 500th game at UD Arena on Dec. 29, 2009 and is 525-188 in 41 seasons at the Arena. The Flyers have a home all-time winning percentage of .780 (782-220).
Take all that into account and add the fact that Seton Hall has played no road games at all in their 9-1 record this year. Last year, the Pirates faced five A-10 opponents going 1-4 with a win at UMass and losses to Temple, Xavier, Dayton and Richmond. ADVANTAGE DAYTON.
Reason (2) The road game will really hurt the Pirates, who have have very little depth on the bench and a true Freshman Guard Aaron Cosby who has already been flustered this season, even in his home games (see the St. Francis game). A Freshman Guards first career road game is usually a diaster on a court like Dayton's. This game will be no different. Always fade freshman guards in their first ever college road game starts in spots like Dayton. Cosby, in his brief career as a Seton Hall Guard, is only averaging 1.3 assists per game, Yikes! ADAVNTAGE DAYTON.
Reason (3) Seton Hall has no bench depth players and if they get into foul trouble often. If either Pope or Theodore get into foul trouble at dayton, Seton Hall is in deep trouble. On the road these two players will have to be nearly perfect with a freshman guard on the floor and no substitutes that can replace their minutes. They can'y get frustrated by calls, the crowd and each other. So far this year the have been able to battle though some lulls at home, but in a tough road venue it's not going to be easy. MAJOR ADVANTAGE DAYTON.
This line opened at Dayton -6 and was quickly bet down to -4 by early Seton Hall backers. Find it tough to believe anyone could easily go against Dayton's 83-12 record the past two years and has a more depth, talent and experience.
Dayton runs away with this one in a double digit blowout, Lay the 4 points. Good Luck!
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