Marist (4-19 SU) traveled to Canisius (10-11 SU) for a game tonight and are getting 14.5 points. Take in mind that although Marist has the worse record SU they getting all these points having already beat Canisus less then two months ago 74-64.
The public has realized this indisputable fact and started backing Marist as soon as the line came out. It is tough to argue their logic, or is it?
I personally am already heavily vested on the other side of this match-up. I am laying the points. Here is why:
Though Marist won the first game by 10, it was fairly close to a statistical miracle... a miracle that was combined with the major help from the officials.
Lets look at the at the box score from the first game and see what happened:
Cansisus took 71 shots to Marist 48.
Canisus fired up 37 3-point FG attempts to Marist's 19.
Cansisus only got 10 FT attempts, Marist awarded 42 FT Attempts.
Canisus handed 30 team fouls, Marist only 13.
To say the least, and I remember the game, Canisus players and coaches felt wronged and were flat out pissed off about the game they thoroughly dominated end to end and were jobbed.
Tonight, Canisus is clearly the better team. They are home where they are 6-4 SU, but that compared to a Marist team who is a mere 1-10 on the road. MARIST are 5-15-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings and Canisus has been saving their best ball on Friday Nights going CAN are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Fri. games. In all of the past 3 meetings at Canisus, Canisus would have covered 14.5 points.
Marists offensively averages 55 points FOR on the road this season and allows an average 74 AGAINST for a road differential of -19. Cansisius at home averages 70 FOR points for and 66 AGAINST for a home differential of +4. The total differential is Canisius +23. Now the 14.5 doesn't seem to be as bad, does it?
Don't count on Marist getting an extra 32 Foul Shots tonight like they did in December and lay the 14.5 as Canisius will avenge that loss in a big way (in a big way.)
Canisius -14.5 and a route.
Good Luck!