Kansas @ Kansas St - ONLY 4 pt spread?!?! NFW!

I appreciate your explanations on the lines and all.  I DON'T  bet on 50/50 flip of the coins.  I see NO reason why the "sharps" would put their money on K-State.  That's all.  The first thing I do when I analize a game is check what games they have in common and "predict" what the "margin of victory" would be.  Nowhere in my calculations did it come up that Kansas only wins by 4, or even 8. 

K-State won AT HOME against Baylor by 8 and Nebraska by 16.

Kansas beat both Baylor and Nebraska by 20 points AWAY ON THEIR COURTS.

If you do some math, and throw a variable in for K-state playing the common denominators of Baylor and Nebraska at home while Kansas played them away, it's nowhere near -4.  And that's just from a two-team common-denomitor calc.  I didn't go through their whole schedule yet.

Then you add in that Kansas already beat K-State 90-66, the number gets even bigger.

I'm PRETTY sure home-court advantage isn't 20 points.

I DO understand what you were getting at about how they set the lines, BUT I still think that it wud be crazy to NOT to take the Sharp's gift here.  I guess it's really not the almighty Vegas' gift, but from what you were saying,..and from what I got out of it,...the Sharps, the non-Squares, the Veterans of the betting world, and the people with deep pockets are going to be on K-State.

I DO appreciate your explanation of why the line is so low.  Any other thoughts would be greatly appreciated too.

BOL

That's what I was gonna say, the whole Wisconsin thing.  I quoted that wisconsin ohio st comment but went off on a tangent.  Thanx for asking about that game.  I DO NOT bet on two good teams.  I DO NOT flip coins, if somebody twisted my arm, I would've bet Wisconsin and the "hype" of them being the best chance to beat Ohio St.  Or was it becuz of Wisconsin's record at home?

I'm from Wisconsin actually, but I try not to bet on home teams. or against

Thanks for your input

"Vegas" had nothing to do with the OSU/Wisc game.  OSU was up 15 and lost because of out of this world 3pt shooting.  The outcome was in the balance right til the end.  The line was right, it was a close game as expected.

Kansas will handle KSU by DD tomorrow.  Maybe I'm a square, and I've lost on these types of lines before,  but I sure as hell aint takin KSU getting only 4.  Kansas is a much better squad with or without their injured guys.

Fella's, Bramlage is Ku's home away from home, 21-1 since the place has opened.  Ku has won 42 out of the last 44.  KU blows Kstate out at home year after year with kstate having better teams than they have this year.  Kstate coming off a Colorado heartbreak and KU kicking ass since the Texas loss and the horrible loss of Robinson's mother.  Teams ging in opposite directions.

This game smells like a dead fish that washed up on shore in the middle of summer, but I think they really missed this one. Shocked if KU doesn't win by DD. 

That seems like a pretty good reason to me. That's the #3 scorer and the #5 scorer that this poster says are not playing.  If this is true, this is why the line is down.

This....everyone needs to remember that Vegas sets the line to get even money on both sides.

That being said and a big follower of Big 12 bball....I think KU will show up and cover. I'll bite and take KU just because they're legit. Undefeated on the road and they've covered ATS their last 5 games....playing very good ball right now.

Ok, so Selby and Robinson is the answer.  I'm still not convinced.  Like I've said before, Selby's been out for 3 games and have won by 20+.  And one was Nebraska away.

What's funny is that I haven't watched enough of Kansas to know what Robinson's role is on their team.  On paper he looks like the Morris brothers' sub to give them a breather.

Anybody have any info on these guys?

Says Selby is Questionable for an ankle and Robinson is out for at least 2 weeks for surgery on a tear in his knee.

He also didn't play last game against Iowa St.  Ok, I understand it was Iowa St. at home, but they did win by 23 points WITHOUT Selby or Robinson.

  Agreed.  I watch Texas a lot, as you can tell by my screen name.  I've watched a lot of the teams in the Big 12.  Just haven't focused my energy on Kansas, cuz I think people know Kansas as a good team, better than Texas.  I believe Texas' lines haven't gotten out of control yet like sum of Kansas'.  Put this line is out-of-control good.  I've already put my bet in in KU, just not my balance.  Although, it is very tempting not to go against money management and put all my eggs in one basket.

Have to always exercise the money management. When you don't is typically when you get slaughtered.

But yeah I've watched a few KU games including against Texas. Solid team and very deep. Hence why I don't think Selby/Robinson being out is a huge factor like most think. I think the line is where it's at because everyone thinks K-state is unstoppable at home. They're a MUCH better home team I agree...I just think for KU to lose K-state will have to play out of their minds while KU playing down. With the way KU has been playing I just don't see that happening. I could be wrong....but I'll bite! It's like they have something to prove after that loss to Texas.

I don't see it.  They ARE NOT GOOD AT HOME.  I'm looking at their schedule right now.  4 games at home during conference.

Colorado - Lost by 8

Texas Tech - Won by 34 (as they should have, it's this year's Tech)

Baylor - Won by 8

Nebraska - Won by 16

One good game there.  Beating Nebraska by 16 is a good win.  otherwise I don't see them "playing so much better" like people would assume.

Their non-conference home games were junk.  Savannah St., North florida, Missouri Kansas City, Alcorn St., Emporia St??, Texas Southern, Presbyterian and James Madison.

Emporia St.?? is that even Division I basketball??

ONE EARLY SEASON (2nd game of the year) HOME WIN:  Virginia Tech by 16.

Good stuff, keep the info coming.

Ohhh, I am not one of the people who think Selby and Robinson being out is going to give K-State the keys to the car at home.

I'm all over this game.

I usually use a lot of my spare time to do long, well-informed write-ups on games that I believe in.  I don't think I'll be doing that this time.

Kansas -4

BOL

Chill peeps, everybody's got opinions. 

I'm just not a fan of people attacking people.  I try (as hard as it may be sumtimes when you read some rants and raves and opinions and names that get called) but it's not worth it and it really doesn't matter.

I enjoy the info and the info I give backeth.

BOL, Thanks for posting everyone