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    All Forums | College Basketball

    January Hoops Cont'd

    «First Previous 234 ... 567 Next Last»
    ac_bum
    riccio14
    nropp11
    db333
    Barnstorm
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    ac_bum
    ac_bum
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2012 - 4:14 PM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    Probably a good thing to fade a struggling offense after a OT marathon game. Just not sure if I could trust Providence w/ immediate revenge w/ Syracuse on deck. They've only scored more than 30 in one half out of eight against what I would consider "base" defenses, which is what they'll see tonight (those games: UNI, ISU, GTOWN, SHALL). I didn't group Syracuse in there b/c it's not your normal style.

    GL A RESPONSE ALWAYS  A PLEASURE
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    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    Probably a good thing to fade a struggling offense after a OT marathon game. Just not sure if I could trust Providence w/ immediate revenge w/ Syracuse on deck. They've only scored more than 30 in one half out of eight against what I would consider "base" defenses, which is what they'll see tonight (those games: UNI, ISU, GTOWN, SHALL). I didn't group Syracuse in there b/c it's not your normal style.

    GL A RESPONSE ALWAYS  A PLEASURE
     
    riccio14
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2012 - 4:31 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    Some Tuesday Tidbits: Ball State in a letdown spot? They just beat the only competition they have on that half of the MAC West…unless they falter tonight. This will be the fourth straight insanely fast tempo game that they take part in and a bad offense has benefitted from the first three being up and down. Probably some value in Ball State if they don’t letup.
     
    I've been staring at this game all day. I have a heavy lean to the over 134.5, but I just can't pull the trigger on it. I think there will be a good pace as well, but worried that the Ball St D may hold Toledo to around 60 pts.
     
    Good luck with your card
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    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    Some Tuesday Tidbits: Ball State in a letdown spot? They just beat the only competition they have on that half of the MAC West…unless they falter tonight. This will be the fourth straight insanely fast tempo game that they take part in and a bad offense has benefitted from the first three being up and down. Probably some value in Ball State if they don’t letup.
     
    I've been staring at this game all day. I have a heavy lean to the over 134.5, but I just can't pull the trigger on it. I think there will be a good pace as well, but worried that the Ball St D may hold Toledo to around 60 pts.
     
    Good luck with your card
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2012 - 4:33 PM ET #28

    Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

    i'm not sure I agree that Larranaga wants to run.

    Of the 14 games Miami's played this year, only four have gone over 68 possessions and two were in OT. So that looks like two games over the key 70-possession mark in regulation against the #4 tempo (UMass) and #17 (Greensboro), while they kept Memphis (#46) two possessions under their average in a blowout loss that would only be one point away from covering this number. With all that said, I could agree with you that The U would love to see transition after only hitting 56 possessions in Charlottesville, but I still don't think we'll see the 75 possessions UNC wants.

    To go further with the pace, if Miami wanted to run they would have been much faster without Reggie Johnson on the court considering how much time he missed earlier in the year. Prior to his return against FAU, the 'Canes were seeing 65.8 possessions/game including one of the two OT games.

    You're 100% right that when he's in there the 'Heels are going to push it as much as they can to try and get some fastbreak dunks for Zeller in transition, but Larranaga is no dummy and I'm sure he'll have the 4-man heading back in transition to prevent that. Kadji is most likely that guy, while Akpejiori could help with that role, too. Sending that guy back on D won't make a huge difference because the 'Canes don't hit the offensive glass very hard anyways (#219), and they shoot so many perimeter shots (#63) they won't have to get that deep. If you look further at the stats, UNC doesn't foul but they give up a ton of points from deep and that plays into Miami's hands because they have six different guys who shoot above the national team average of 34.2% from 3pt land.

    I will be on The U, but I wish you luck

    You would.

    What I was alluding to w/ pace was that four of their fastest tempo games came against four of the fastest paced squads they've seen this year. Not only that, but what he's done in the past against "big names" when he was at Mason. You bring up some good points about wanting to run without Johnson etc..., but that wasn't my point. I said I think they'll want to run tonight, just b/c of the tempo UNC brings. They didn't run w/o Johnson b/c that ain't their style. I'm not trying to say that they were a fast team and want to run all the time, I just project them to run in "this" matchup.

    In regards to taking the bigs positions and having them get back without crashing, you bring up the fact that they don't offensive rebound the ball all that well, but the two guys you listed are their two best offensive rebounders, so sending them back pretty much negates any second chance opportunities they may have. Which leads into the point I was trying to make with the UNC defense. I don't mind them soft here. As dumb as it sounds, I want Miami to force shots, long shots, get complacent and continue to shoot from out there. When you're a team like UNC, the defense gets dumbed down and you just have to guard one thing, the three-point line. Makes it easier for everyone to be on the same page. 

    I'm taking my chances that they don't have a good shooting night. 

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

    i'm not sure I agree that Larranaga wants to run.

    Of the 14 games Miami's played this year, only four have gone over 68 possessions and two were in OT. So that looks like two games over the key 70-possession mark in regulation against the #4 tempo (UMass) and #17 (Greensboro), while they kept Memphis (#46) two possessions under their average in a blowout loss that would only be one point away from covering this number. With all that said, I could agree with you that The U would love to see transition after only hitting 56 possessions in Charlottesville, but I still don't think we'll see the 75 possessions UNC wants.

    To go further with the pace, if Miami wanted to run they would have been much faster without Reggie Johnson on the court considering how much time he missed earlier in the year. Prior to his return against FAU, the 'Canes were seeing 65.8 possessions/game including one of the two OT games.

    You're 100% right that when he's in there the 'Heels are going to push it as much as they can to try and get some fastbreak dunks for Zeller in transition, but Larranaga is no dummy and I'm sure he'll have the 4-man heading back in transition to prevent that. Kadji is most likely that guy, while Akpejiori could help with that role, too. Sending that guy back on D won't make a huge difference because the 'Canes don't hit the offensive glass very hard anyways (#219), and they shoot so many perimeter shots (#63) they won't have to get that deep. If you look further at the stats, UNC doesn't foul but they give up a ton of points from deep and that plays into Miami's hands because they have six different guys who shoot above the national team average of 34.2% from 3pt land.

    I will be on The U, but I wish you luck

    You would.

    What I was alluding to w/ pace was that four of their fastest tempo games came against four of the fastest paced squads they've seen this year. Not only that, but what he's done in the past against "big names" when he was at Mason. You bring up some good points about wanting to run without Johnson etc..., but that wasn't my point. I said I think they'll want to run tonight, just b/c of the tempo UNC brings. They didn't run w/o Johnson b/c that ain't their style. I'm not trying to say that they were a fast team and want to run all the time, I just project them to run in "this" matchup.

    In regards to taking the bigs positions and having them get back without crashing, you bring up the fact that they don't offensive rebound the ball all that well, but the two guys you listed are their two best offensive rebounders, so sending them back pretty much negates any second chance opportunities they may have. Which leads into the point I was trying to make with the UNC defense. I don't mind them soft here. As dumb as it sounds, I want Miami to force shots, long shots, get complacent and continue to shoot from out there. When you're a team like UNC, the defense gets dumbed down and you just have to guard one thing, the three-point line. Makes it easier for everyone to be on the same page. 

    I'm taking my chances that they don't have a good shooting night. 

    GL
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2012 - 4:35 PM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by riccio14:

     
    I've been staring at this game all day. I have a heavy lean to the over 134.5, but I just can't pull the trigger on it. I think there will be a good pace as well, but worried that the Ball St D may hold Toledo to around 60 pts.
     
    Good luck with your card

    Sounds like Ball State's the better side.

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by riccio14:

     
    I've been staring at this game all day. I have a heavy lean to the over 134.5, but I just can't pull the trigger on it. I think there will be a good pace as well, but worried that the Ball St D may hold Toledo to around 60 pts.
     
    Good luck with your card

    Sounds like Ball State's the better side.

    GL
     
    db333
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2012 - 10:56 PM ET #30

    Awesome again Neil.  Your write-up on Miami/UNC was perfect.  I almost felt like you had already seen the game played.

    Good Luck, looking forward to more great info and picks.
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    Awesome again Neil.  Your write-up on Miami/UNC was perfect.  I almost felt like you had already seen the game played.

    Good Luck, looking forward to more great info and picks.
     
    Barnstorm
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2012 - 11:26 PM ET #31

    The scrubs almost blew the cover in NC.

    Brandon Paul was out of his mind in Illinois. 43 points!

    3-1 and up 4 units tonight. Nicely done.  

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    The scrubs almost blew the cover in NC.

    Brandon Paul was out of his mind in Illinois. 43 points!

    3-1 and up 4 units tonight. Nicely done.  

     
    KobezKing
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 12:41 AM ET #32

    Nice night, probably woulda ran the table if not for the 43 point outburst by paul.  Keep it up
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    Nice night, probably woulda ran the table if not for the 43 point outburst by paul.  Keep it up
     
    GWarner27
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 12:57 AM ET #33

    you won our duel, say hello to the walk-on who was averaging 0.3 ppg heading into this one yet drilled an 18-footer with the shotclock off.

    I will say I didn't deserve it, but sheesh
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    you won our duel, say hello to the walk-on who was averaging 0.3 ppg heading into this one yet drilled an 18-footer with the shotclock off.

    I will say I didn't deserve it, but sheesh
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 8:14 AM ET #34

    Temple catching 8 @ SLU!? Bill & Mary favored!? Pitt laying 9!? Mizzou/ISU total isnt 200!? Fordham +14.5!? Bama laying 11.5 in a game that should see the winner get to 55!?


    Help me out here Ropp!
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    Temple catching 8 @ SLU!? Bill & Mary favored!? Pitt laying 9!? Mizzou/ISU total isnt 200!? Fordham +14.5!? Bama laying 11.5 in a game that should see the winner get to 55!?


    Help me out here Ropp!
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 10:10 AM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Temple catching 8 @ SLU!? Bill & Mary favored!? Pitt laying 9!? Mizzou/ISU total isnt 200!? Fordham +14.5!? Bama laying 11.5 in a game that should see the winner get to 55!?


    Help me out here Ropp!

    Temple's probably a pup or a PK at best in every A-10 roady aside from Rhode Island and Fordham. They've looked atrocious on the road this year. Probably see a different Temple lineup tonight. They can't play the three or four guards at one time and expect to defend STL.

    Towson only a 4 point pup?!?!? I'm not touching this game. Should set up for some points, though. Both teams sag, Towson's zone should give William & Mary nice open looks from the three-point line, and William & Mary forces teams to beat you from the outside and hope to rebound the ball. In reality, this game sets up to be like a game of H-O-R-S-E.

    No clue on Pitt. Expecting Woodall back? Bad spot for Rutgers in a letdown and hitting the road for only the second time on the year. I've commented on Rutgers speeding up their pace this year, and they've done a good job at getting up and down, but they've flat out sucked when they've been forced to slow down, so you're seeing why they're trying to speed it up. Price is pretty steep on Pitt here, but Dixon's hinted at going zone, which only slows down the game a bit more, forces Rutgers to beat you from the outside (good for Pitt, bad for Rutgers), and if the game is slow, then you have a Rutgers team playing in a letdown spot in a style they want no part of being in.

    I could be wrong with Missouri, but I'm under the impression that once that first loss came, Haith is going to make some adjustments and slow them down. I could be entirely way off in another solar system, but that's my guess. Think they played 87 possessions in this spot last year, but that was a blowout setting. Second meeting was close and only came in at 70 possessions, so in a closer ballgame with Mizzou on the road for second straight, and that possibility of Haith getting away from giving them all the freedom to do whatever they want whenever they want in the offense, might put a tiny bit of value in that high total. I haven't figured Hoiberg out in recent games this and last year. I know he wants to run, but in games I thought he'd slow down, he ran faster, and in games I thought he would run, he was as slow as a turtle. What's funny is that 87 possession game they played last year stayed under this listed #.

    St. Joseph's decent shooters shooting into the Fordham zone, and a horrendous Fordham offense that becomes one dimensional and will have to hit shots from beyond the arc where they shoot 28%. Teams aren't scoring on St. Joseph's in the paint...at all. This takes away any inside game, and the slashing game. The starting lineup Fordham trots out has only hit 57 three's in 15 games.

    No thoughts on the Bama game. Think they're offense is better than what it's shown, and LSU's defense was rated this good last year before it started hitting the road against some good SEC offenses. Lost a majority of their road games in the conference last year by 20+.

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Temple catching 8 @ SLU!? Bill & Mary favored!? Pitt laying 9!? Mizzou/ISU total isnt 200!? Fordham +14.5!? Bama laying 11.5 in a game that should see the winner get to 55!?


    Help me out here Ropp!

    Temple's probably a pup or a PK at best in every A-10 roady aside from Rhode Island and Fordham. They've looked atrocious on the road this year. Probably see a different Temple lineup tonight. They can't play the three or four guards at one time and expect to defend STL.

    Towson only a 4 point pup?!?!? I'm not touching this game. Should set up for some points, though. Both teams sag, Towson's zone should give William & Mary nice open looks from the three-point line, and William & Mary forces teams to beat you from the outside and hope to rebound the ball. In reality, this game sets up to be like a game of H-O-R-S-E.

    No clue on Pitt. Expecting Woodall back? Bad spot for Rutgers in a letdown and hitting the road for only the second time on the year. I've commented on Rutgers speeding up their pace this year, and they've done a good job at getting up and down, but they've flat out sucked when they've been forced to slow down, so you're seeing why they're trying to speed it up. Price is pretty steep on Pitt here, but Dixon's hinted at going zone, which only slows down the game a bit more, forces Rutgers to beat you from the outside (good for Pitt, bad for Rutgers), and if the game is slow, then you have a Rutgers team playing in a letdown spot in a style they want no part of being in.

    I could be wrong with Missouri, but I'm under the impression that once that first loss came, Haith is going to make some adjustments and slow them down. I could be entirely way off in another solar system, but that's my guess. Think they played 87 possessions in this spot last year, but that was a blowout setting. Second meeting was close and only came in at 70 possessions, so in a closer ballgame with Mizzou on the road for second straight, and that possibility of Haith getting away from giving them all the freedom to do whatever they want whenever they want in the offense, might put a tiny bit of value in that high total. I haven't figured Hoiberg out in recent games this and last year. I know he wants to run, but in games I thought he'd slow down, he ran faster, and in games I thought he would run, he was as slow as a turtle. What's funny is that 87 possession game they played last year stayed under this listed #.

    St. Joseph's decent shooters shooting into the Fordham zone, and a horrendous Fordham offense that becomes one dimensional and will have to hit shots from beyond the arc where they shoot 28%. Teams aren't scoring on St. Joseph's in the paint...at all. This takes away any inside game, and the slashing game. The starting lineup Fordham trots out has only hit 57 three's in 15 games.

    No thoughts on the Bama game. Think they're offense is better than what it's shown, and LSU's defense was rated this good last year before it started hitting the road against some good SEC offenses. Lost a majority of their road games in the conference last year by 20+.

    GL
     
    michaelpaul1
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 10:15 AM ET #36

    good luck today...
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    good luck today...
     
    FR3SH-like-UgHH
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 10:44 AM ET #37

    nropp, first off, just want to thank you, really, been a big help with just little insight/comments that you have fedback to me...

    ...now, St. Bonnie's/Dayton...what's your take on this? Dayton has won the last 9 match-ups and Bonnie's have NEVER been favored(now there pegged @ -2.5).

    what do you think?

    ...right now im leaning Bonnie's 1st half/MAYBE the game.
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    nropp, first off, just want to thank you, really, been a big help with just little insight/comments that you have fedback to me...

    ...now, St. Bonnie's/Dayton...what's your take on this? Dayton has won the last 9 match-ups and Bonnie's have NEVER been favored(now there pegged @ -2.5).

    what do you think?

    ...right now im leaning Bonnie's 1st half/MAYBE the game.
     
    whisperman
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 10:53 AM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by FR3SH-like-UgHH:

    nropp, first off, just want to thank you, really, been a big help with just little insight/comments that you have fedback to me...

    ...now, St. Bonnie's/Dayton...what's your take on this? Dayton has won the last 9 match-ups and Bonnie's have NEVER been favored(now there pegged @ -2.5).

    what do you think?

    Love it as well..game up to 4 now in most places

    ...right now im leaning Bonnie's 1st half/MAYBE the game.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FR3SH-like-UgHH:

    nropp, first off, just want to thank you, really, been a big help with just little insight/comments that you have fedback to me...

    ...now, St. Bonnie's/Dayton...what's your take on this? Dayton has won the last 9 match-ups and Bonnie's have NEVER been favored(now there pegged @ -2.5).

    what do you think?

    Love it as well..game up to 4 now in most places

    ...right now im leaning Bonnie's 1st half/MAYBE the game.
     
    GWarner27
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 11:14 AM ET #39

    Dayton is down their two athletic big guys Benson & Johnson
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    Dayton is down their two athletic big guys Benson & Johnson
     
    bluehen21
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 11:21 AM ET #40

    Nice work NRopp.  Looking forward to your plays

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    Nice work NRopp.  Looking forward to your plays

     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 11:35 AM ET #41

    Quote Originally Posted by FR3SH-like-UgHH:

    nropp, first off, just want to thank you, really, been a big help with just little insight/comments that you have fedback to me...

    ...now, St. Bonnie's/Dayton...what's your take on this? Dayton has won the last 9 match-ups and Bonnie's have NEVER been favored(now there pegged @ -2.5).

    what do you think?

    ...right now im leaning Bonnie's 1st half/MAYBE the game.

    I'm staying away from this game. Too many unknowns. Bonnies have struggled as you pointed out, and Dayton has a few key injuries to Benson and Johnson. I don't think the injuries mean all that much in the grand scheme of things b/c this Dayton team is built around a system. From an offensive perspective, eight of the nine guys that have seen the court have an offensive rating of 100+, with the only guy not being productive is the Oliver kid (who probably goes into the starting lineup tonight). Sort of a weird dynamic that Dayton loses some beef, but has players capable of stepping into those roles (and Fabrizius a gooooood outside shooter who can stretch the defense).

    With the Bonnies, you probably have some value, but not b/c of the injuries, but b/c Nicholson went for 35 in last year's meeting. He missed this matchup 2 years ago, and the year prior he was plagued by foul trouble, so those big wins Dayton owns in the series are in a way sort of false information.

    I'm not a big guy on injuries as you've noticed as a lot of these teams stick to the systems and recruit on that notion. Dayton's one of those teams, and they depend a bit more on their guards within the offense. Nicholson's going to get his if he stays out of foul trouble, and the matchup that probably determines the outcome is Dillard and Kloof.

    Situation-wise, not the best spot for Dayton to continue on the road with a slightly new lineup after knocking off Temple/STL back-to-back.

    As you can see, I'm all over the place on this one, hence, not touching it. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by FR3SH-like-UgHH:

    nropp, first off, just want to thank you, really, been a big help with just little insight/comments that you have fedback to me...

    ...now, St. Bonnie's/Dayton...what's your take on this? Dayton has won the last 9 match-ups and Bonnie's have NEVER been favored(now there pegged @ -2.5).

    what do you think?

    ...right now im leaning Bonnie's 1st half/MAYBE the game.

    I'm staying away from this game. Too many unknowns. Bonnies have struggled as you pointed out, and Dayton has a few key injuries to Benson and Johnson. I don't think the injuries mean all that much in the grand scheme of things b/c this Dayton team is built around a system. From an offensive perspective, eight of the nine guys that have seen the court have an offensive rating of 100+, with the only guy not being productive is the Oliver kid (who probably goes into the starting lineup tonight). Sort of a weird dynamic that Dayton loses some beef, but has players capable of stepping into those roles (and Fabrizius a gooooood outside shooter who can stretch the defense).

    With the Bonnies, you probably have some value, but not b/c of the injuries, but b/c Nicholson went for 35 in last year's meeting. He missed this matchup 2 years ago, and the year prior he was plagued by foul trouble, so those big wins Dayton owns in the series are in a way sort of false information.

    I'm not a big guy on injuries as you've noticed as a lot of these teams stick to the systems and recruit on that notion. Dayton's one of those teams, and they depend a bit more on their guards within the offense. Nicholson's going to get his if he stays out of foul trouble, and the matchup that probably determines the outcome is Dillard and Kloof.

    Situation-wise, not the best spot for Dayton to continue on the road with a slightly new lineup after knocking off Temple/STL back-to-back.

    As you can see, I'm all over the place on this one, hence, not touching it. 
     
    Mavs77
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 11:43 AM ET #42

    Nropp,

    Arkansas seems to be a good pick, I was not a strong believer until their last game where they absolutely destroyed Mississippi State. Despite being on the road this Ole Miss team (Nelson dismissed) lacks the depth and shooters to keep up with the fast pace tempo Arkansas plays. Your thoughts? Best play I see Arkansas either PK or +1.
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    Nropp,

    Arkansas seems to be a good pick, I was not a strong believer until their last game where they absolutely destroyed Mississippi State. Despite being on the road this Ole Miss team (Nelson dismissed) lacks the depth and shooters to keep up with the fast pace tempo Arkansas plays. Your thoughts? Best play I see Arkansas either PK or +1.
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 11:48 AM ET #43

    Quote Originally Posted by Mavs77:

    Nropp,

    Arkansas seems to be a good pick, I was not a strong believer until their last game where they absolutely destroyed Mississippi State. Despite being on the road this Ole Miss team (Nelson dismissed) lacks the depth and shooters to keep up with the fast pace tempo Arkansas plays. Your thoughts? Best play I see Arkansas either PK or +1.

    Probably the right side, but I can't back the team hitting the road after putting up their highest point total of the season in their last game. Ole Miss will welcome the pace after playing a few snails in a row, and probably get a bump on the offensive side as a result of it. Arkansas' two road games came against top 100 defenses, and they only scored 62 and 63 in those games and both went over 69 possessions. The Ole Miss offense is brutal, but should look better in a game that kenpom projects to have 74 possessions. This will be the toughest defense that Arkansas will have faced this year, just not sure it's the right spot to be backing them.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mavs77:

    Nropp,

    Arkansas seems to be a good pick, I was not a strong believer until their last game where they absolutely destroyed Mississippi State. Despite being on the road this Ole Miss team (Nelson dismissed) lacks the depth and shooters to keep up with the fast pace tempo Arkansas plays. Your thoughts? Best play I see Arkansas either PK or +1.

    Probably the right side, but I can't back the team hitting the road after putting up their highest point total of the season in their last game. Ole Miss will welcome the pace after playing a few snails in a row, and probably get a bump on the offensive side as a result of it. Arkansas' two road games came against top 100 defenses, and they only scored 62 and 63 in those games and both went over 69 possessions. The Ole Miss offense is brutal, but should look better in a game that kenpom projects to have 74 possessions. This will be the toughest defense that Arkansas will have faced this year, just not sure it's the right spot to be backing them.
     
    FR3SH-like-UgHH
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 12:01 PM ET #44

    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    I'm staying away from this game. Too many unknowns. Bonnies have struggled as you pointed out, and Dayton has a few key injuries to Benson and Johnson. I don't think the injuries mean all that much in the grand scheme of things b/c this Dayton team is built around a system. From an offensive perspective, eight of the nine guys that have seen the court have an offensive rating of 100+, with the only guy not being productive is the Oliver kid (who probably goes into the starting lineup tonight). Sort of a weird dynamic that Dayton loses some beef, but has players capable of stepping into those roles (and Fabrizius a gooooood outside shooter who can stretch the defense).

    With the Bonnies, you probably have some value, but not b/c of the injuries, but b/c Nicholson went for 35 in last year's meeting. He missed this matchup 2 years ago, and the year prior he was plagued by foul trouble, so those big wins Dayton owns in the series are in a way sort of false information.

    I'm not a big guy on injuries as you've noticed as a lot of these teams stick to the systems and recruit on that notion. Dayton's one of those teams, and they depend a bit more on their guards within the offense. Nicholson's going to get his if he stays out of foul trouble, and the matchup that probably determines the outcome is Dillard and Kloof.

    Situation-wise, not the best spot for Dayton to continue on the road with a slightly new lineup after knocking off Temple/STL back-to-back.

    As you can see, I'm all over the place on this one, hence, not touching it. 

    from ur analysis, im saying tho, i know ur not playing it BUT in ur opinion what is the better play here...UNDER 128 or Bonnie's 1h or game?

    PS...im not betting to bet it, i like the info i have, just not sure which play to go with.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    I'm staying away from this game. Too many unknowns. Bonnies have struggled as you pointed out, and Dayton has a few key injuries to Benson and Johnson. I don't think the injuries mean all that much in the grand scheme of things b/c this Dayton team is built around a system. From an offensive perspective, eight of the nine guys that have seen the court have an offensive rating of 100+, with the only guy not being productive is the Oliver kid (who probably goes into the starting lineup tonight). Sort of a weird dynamic that Dayton loses some beef, but has players capable of stepping into those roles (and Fabrizius a gooooood outside shooter who can stretch the defense).

    With the Bonnies, you probably have some value, but not b/c of the injuries, but b/c Nicholson went for 35 in last year's meeting. He missed this matchup 2 years ago, and the year prior he was plagued by foul trouble, so those big wins Dayton owns in the series are in a way sort of false information.

    I'm not a big guy on injuries as you've noticed as a lot of these teams stick to the systems and recruit on that notion. Dayton's one of those teams, and they depend a bit more on their guards within the offense. Nicholson's going to get his if he stays out of foul trouble, and the matchup that probably determines the outcome is Dillard and Kloof.

    Situation-wise, not the best spot for Dayton to continue on the road with a slightly new lineup after knocking off Temple/STL back-to-back.

    As you can see, I'm all over the place on this one, hence, not touching it. 

    from ur analysis, im saying tho, i know ur not playing it BUT in ur opinion what is the better play here...UNDER 128 or Bonnie's 1h or game?

    PS...im not betting to bet it, i like the info i have, just not sure which play to go with.
     
    capskip
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 12:02 PM ET #45

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    Theone324
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 12:05 PM ET #46

    keep up the good work dude, if you could for a second touch on Texas/Texas A&M.  Thinking about laying a rather heavy wager on Texas.
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    keep up the good work dude, if you could for a second touch on Texas/Texas A&M.  Thinking about laying a rather heavy wager on Texas.
     
    whisperman
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 12:12 PM ET #47

    Any plays today? 
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    Any plays today? 
     
    lbreno
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 12:36 PM ET #48

    Always great analysis Neil.

    Looks like Cuse will dominate Nova, and Missou will bounce back.  Marshall seems much better than UAB.  Any thoughts?
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    Always great analysis Neil.

    Looks like Cuse will dominate Nova, and Missou will bounce back.  Marshall seems much better than UAB.  Any thoughts?
     
    clem1
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 12:42 PM ET #49

    neil  - leaning towards cuse - thoughts - thnx
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    neil  - leaning towards cuse - thoughts - thnx
     
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2012 - 12:45 PM ET #50

    November: 46-38, +5.20
    November Leans: 39-38
    December: 65-70, -9.45
    December Leans: 67-79
    January: 11-6, +16.60
    January Leans: 11-8


    Wednesday


    I feel like I’ve had a good read on Morehead State all year, enough to circle them in two spots. The first spot hit when they were catching points at home to a Ball State team, where the press and the zone pretty much took BSU out of everything they wanted to do offensively, so I’m going back to the well one last time and going to flip the script on Morehead State here. This game’s pretty much the exact opposite. They’re not at home in this matchup, and TSU sort of does everything well that Morehead State doesn’t want you to do well. The problem with the matchup is that I’ve been a bit off on Tennessee State this year. They’ve underachieved by a mile, so I’m getting some extra value I feel here. Simply put, the Ohio Valley sucks this year, and that’s probably an understatement. The league is down, and lost some key players from last year. One of those players, probably the most important to any team, was Kenneth Faried. He was a staple of the Morehead defense, and he led the nation in offensive and defensive rebounding. Not only that, but he was utilized perfectly in Tyndall’s system. If you aren’t familiar with Morehead State, the basis of the defense is set out to confuse opponents. From a defensive perspective, they utilize a 2-2-1 press, and Faried was the guy back on the press, and when the offense got past half court, they would fall into a zone that really got on you in the pressure spots (corners), with Faried manning the middle. To give you an idea of how important this guy was to not only the team, but to this matchup in general, look no further than last year’s meetings. The team’s split the home and home matchups, but dig a little deeper. In the first meeting, Faried had 8 offensive rebounds. In the second meeting, Faried had 10 offensive rebounds. That’s 18 offensive rebounds in two games. He was a huge part of their offense from that standpoint, and a big reason they put up points with a bad offense, because they got those extra opportunities, and at the same time, limited the opponent to only one shot. With that said, he’s gone, and they’ve actually recovered a bit better than I expected. The games that they have won on the year have come against teams who put a strong focus on scoring on the inside, or against teams that have what I’d like to call the “juco” presence of having guards who throw the ball all over the court and try to get into transition against a press, which really isn’t the best thing to do. If you beat the Morehead State press, they want you to get in the paint and shoot a dumb shot on their best defender. If you beat the press and don’t make a trip to the basket, they want to work from the outside in, put pressure on the outside, and again hope you’re going to come into the paint with some penetration, rather than reversing the ball for an open shot around the outside. Which sort of leads me to why I like Tennessee State. As I mentioned, Morehead State’s had the luxury of facing a couple of opponents thus far in the conference that treat the basketball like it’s a hot potato, and they’ve taken advantage in two of those games with a 2-2 conference record to this point. The problem is, this will be their third straight game away from home, and that generally does not end well with jump shooting teams. Offensively, they’re completely stagnant at times, and this should be one of those games where they look it. They looked the part in their most recent game against Tennessee Tech as well as they attempted 22 three-pointers, and only got to the foul line 7 times. If you’ve read my little notes on both Tech and State here, they’re pretty much identical when it comes to personnel and what they like to do. If Morehead State’s a 7 point pup at Tech just two days ago, what makes them a lesser pup here on the end of a three game roady? And this is where the value comes in. Tennessee State’s been playing some pretty bad basketball, but that bad basketball has been on the road, and it’s been the brutal cause of a couple slow starts on their most recent roady. After starting out the conference 1-0, they hit the road for Eastern Kentucky where they started out the game in a hole at the half 41-17. The result? They battled back and had a chance to tie at the end of the game before ultimately falling by five...
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    November: 46-38, +5.20
    November Leans: 39-38
    December: 65-70, -9.45
    December Leans: 67-79
    January: 11-6, +16.60
    January Leans: 11-8


    Wednesday


    I feel like I’ve had a good read on Morehead State all year, enough to circle them in two spots. The first spot hit when they were catching points at home to a Ball State team, where the press and the zone pretty much took BSU out of everything they wanted to do offensively, so I’m going back to the well one last time and going to flip the script on Morehead State here. This game’s pretty much the exact opposite. They’re not at home in this matchup, and TSU sort of does everything well that Morehead State doesn’t want you to do well. The problem with the matchup is that I’ve been a bit off on Tennessee State this year. They’ve underachieved by a mile, so I’m getting some extra value I feel here. Simply put, the Ohio Valley sucks this year, and that’s probably an understatement. The league is down, and lost some key players from last year. One of those players, probably the most important to any team, was Kenneth Faried. He was a staple of the Morehead defense, and he led the nation in offensive and defensive rebounding. Not only that, but he was utilized perfectly in Tyndall’s system. If you aren’t familiar with Morehead State, the basis of the defense is set out to confuse opponents. From a defensive perspective, they utilize a 2-2-1 press, and Faried was the guy back on the press, and when the offense got past half court, they would fall into a zone that really got on you in the pressure spots (corners), with Faried manning the middle. To give you an idea of how important this guy was to not only the team, but to this matchup in general, look no further than last year’s meetings. The team’s split the home and home matchups, but dig a little deeper. In the first meeting, Faried had 8 offensive rebounds. In the second meeting, Faried had 10 offensive rebounds. That’s 18 offensive rebounds in two games. He was a huge part of their offense from that standpoint, and a big reason they put up points with a bad offense, because they got those extra opportunities, and at the same time, limited the opponent to only one shot. With that said, he’s gone, and they’ve actually recovered a bit better than I expected. The games that they have won on the year have come against teams who put a strong focus on scoring on the inside, or against teams that have what I’d like to call the “juco” presence of having guards who throw the ball all over the court and try to get into transition against a press, which really isn’t the best thing to do. If you beat the Morehead State press, they want you to get in the paint and shoot a dumb shot on their best defender. If you beat the press and don’t make a trip to the basket, they want to work from the outside in, put pressure on the outside, and again hope you’re going to come into the paint with some penetration, rather than reversing the ball for an open shot around the outside. Which sort of leads me to why I like Tennessee State. As I mentioned, Morehead State’s had the luxury of facing a couple of opponents thus far in the conference that treat the basketball like it’s a hot potato, and they’ve taken advantage in two of those games with a 2-2 conference record to this point. The problem is, this will be their third straight game away from home, and that generally does not end well with jump shooting teams. Offensively, they’re completely stagnant at times, and this should be one of those games where they look it. They looked the part in their most recent game against Tennessee Tech as well as they attempted 22 three-pointers, and only got to the foul line 7 times. If you’ve read my little notes on both Tech and State here, they’re pretty much identical when it comes to personnel and what they like to do. If Morehead State’s a 7 point pup at Tech just two days ago, what makes them a lesser pup here on the end of a three game roady? And this is where the value comes in. Tennessee State’s been playing some pretty bad basketball, but that bad basketball has been on the road, and it’s been the brutal cause of a couple slow starts on their most recent roady. After starting out the conference 1-0, they hit the road for Eastern Kentucky where they started out the game in a hole at the half 41-17. The result? They battled back and had a chance to tie at the end of the game before ultimately falling by five...
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