Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 8-5, +12.90
January Leans: 8-8
Tuesday
I’m playing North Carolina as I’ve had it circled as a situational spot, and since doing so, a few more advantages have opened up in my favor I believe. First, as to why I pegged it as a good spot a while back. It’s a pretty ugly spot for Miami FL. They’re continuing on the road with short prep and rest after a game against Virginia and a style that wears on you into an ultra-fast setting here. Going from slow and physical pressure into fast and little pressure will more than likely make a jump shooting team be a bit more complacent than it should be. Second, the game is going to be fast. I think it’s pretty evident that UNC has sped up just about everyone it’s been able to play outside of Wisconsin, and Miami FL, while not a super fast team, they’ve fallen into the trap of getting up and down against teams that like to do so. Larranaga isn’t afraid to play fast, and hasn’t slowed the tempo in any game he’s been a part of when he’s gone against a good team in the past. Yah, the chalk is a bit high, but in reality, if this game is played to a faster tempo, then the line holds quite a bit of value and shouldn’t be as tough as a line to cover with more shot attempts and more possessions. I think much can be made of how much Reggie Johnson has helped Miami, and what his return has done for the team. His presence alone has opened up the outside for the three-pointer which Miami FL is in love with, and has been in love with for the better part of the past few years. He’s a mammoth on the inside, and again, he’s a huge part of both their offense and the defense as any big and agile 300 pounder would be for any team on the inside. And that’s sort of the problem and the perfect storm here and why this line holds value. He’s only going to be a small part of this game, if at all. He’s only been back five games, and is coming off a game a few days ago where he played his highest minute total of the year in regulation time. That’s key #1, it’s going to be rough to bounce back. Not only that (key #2), the big fella is gonna be forced to run up and down. Since returning, I think it’s pretty obvious that in the one game that he did play in a fast setting, he wasn’t a big part of what they wanted to do and was completely taken out of the game against UNC Greensboro. If you’ve seen Greensboro play, they run at every opportunity, very similar to what North Carolina wants to do. Reggie played a whopping 15 minutes that game, Miami FL struggled greatly, and he wasn’t a factor in the result. If you look at last years meetings, throw them out the window. Johnson played 30+ minutes in both, that was also in Haith’s snail. To give you an idea of how much Haith slowed the pace in the ACC, he didn’t play a single game over 70 possessions in the conference all year! Ok, they were a part of one game in the ACC tournament that hit 73 possessions against Virginia, but the game went into OT to go above those 70 possessions. In those two snail meetings last year, Miami FL held leads of 14 and 17 points in both games and lost on comebacks from UNC when they finally picked up the pace towards the end of the games. Again, almost all of the analysis to this point is based on this game being played up and down which I think it will be and here’s some more info on why I think it’s going to be played that way. First, the totals for these matchups the past few years have been lined in the low 140’s, and we now have a total in the mid 150’s. That gives me indication that the pace will be up there. Second, every team Larranaga has played this year with a fast tempo has exceeded the average # of possessions. Even his teams in the past at George Mason ran with teams that wanted to run. Last year they ran with NC State and were beaten by 13 on a neutral and ran with Duquesne as well. In the tournament last year, you might remember him trying to run with Ohio State and getting blasted. The final possession total came in at 66, but 40 of those possessions occurred in the first half and Ohio State sat on the big lead. Two years ago, he took all of the big schools above 70 possessions (Nova, GT, Indiana, Creighton). If you haven’t realized, Larranaga’s an offensive minded coach. He’s rarely put any emphasis on his defense, and he tries to outscore teams. It’s been his motto since having the big run in the NCAA tournament, and I don’t see anything changing. He’s going to try and run here tonight, and it just isn’t the smartest option going up against an offense in UNC that is going to put points on the board in a hurry, also noting the first real high octane test with some new faces in the lineup (Jones, Johnson), and I think it hurts them. I think much can also be made of how much I have commented on UNC and the style of defense they have employed over the past couple years and how much of a non-fan I am of it. It’s pretty obvious. The lack of them sending people to the foul line the past couple years pretty much shows how soft they are on that side of the ball, and that’s a given. But again, I like the spot. They’re what I would call a team that relies on the jump shot, and a team that will fall in love with it. They’ve changed a bit since Johnson has returned, but again, I’m not really expecting Johnson to be a large part of the offense. And a jump shooting team going on the road for the second straight after a narrow defeat and a tough style in Virginia should lead to some complacency on the perimeter with a failure to get the ball inside. Which leads me to the only other way this game can be played, and I give it about a 20% chance, and that’s if Larranaga can slow the tempo. If he chooses to slow the pace and make it a half court game, they’re a pretty easy team to defend the jump shot, and that’s really all UNC has to do on the perimeter. Having the big guys on the inside become a liability on the offensive side of things for UNC in a slow setting, but it helps their defense a tremendous amount. So, I’m not bothered by the slow setting either. If you look at UNC, this will be their 9th straight home game, and they’re coming off a 23 point win that they looked pitiful in against Boston College. On the home stand, it was one of their lowest point totals (97, 84, 97, 99, 82, 100, 102, and 83) , and Roy said they looked lethargic. In those 8 games, the only team that’s been able to stay within the listed # here was Long Beach State, and they’re use to playing the up and down style. I should be getting their best shot tonight, and I have no idea how Miami FL is going to be able to stop them, let alone rebound from a much different style with little prep and rest, with what I figure to be their best player and a huge part of their offense not really being a part of this game…at all.
5* North Carolina -16
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