Wednesday Cont'd...
I’m not a big fan of backing teams who struggle to score at times, but when the matchups are in my favor I’m willing to take the risk. If you remember back to the OSU/Bama game, I was a big fan of Alabama in that matchup and was more of a fade on Page and OSU just not being able to get a shot off against the tough physical Bama defense because of such a big size discrepancy. Well, that’s sort of the same situation tonight. LSU trots out two guards that stand less than six feet tall and both average in that 10 ppg range and both are a big part of the team’s offense from a rhythm standpoint. Will they handle the pressure? It’s possible. Will they score? That’s the question that I’m willing to go against. Alabama’s just too big out top, and too physical underneath. Bama’s offense is nothing special, but keep in mind those shots now will be coming with four and five inch height advantages (similar to OSU where they put up 69). I have a hard time pegging LSU for anything more than 50, and if they want to push the pace on the road as they have in the past, then Bama’s offense might look superhero-ish, with less opportunities in the half court where they struggle. That OSU game was slightly neutral, they got a nice home court here where they didn’t lose once last season. I commented on the Charlotte/Umass Under somewhere in here, so that’s that. Not really much more to add to it. I think I’ve made myself rather clear this year by saying multiple times that the ODU offense blows a goat, and the Delaware defense forces you to score from the perimeter. Playing matchmaker, we get a really good ODU defense that’s got some good size and built perfectly to defend Sadler and Hagins. And we got a Delaware defense that’s going to lull ODU into taking outside shots. Last year’s meetings hit 61, 57, and 60 possessions, and both teams take away the other team’s strength of offensive rebounds. Only concern with this year’s meeting is the game becoming so physical that it’s tightly called and both teams get to the foul line more than what they normally would. Neither team shoots it all that well from there, so chance is worth it. Can add some more in this game, but I think I’ve covered both teams a fair amount this year in terms of what they want to do. If ODU catches fire from the outside or the Delaware role players are hitting from the outside, I’m toast, but I’m willing to go against that. I’m playing Bowling Green. Akron’s offense hasn’t been too overly impressive as of late, and they’ve faced three really good defenses (one in OT) prior to facing another one tonight. Bowling Green has a nice 35 point revenge game where Akron beat them in this gym last year, and they’re a much faster team than what teams in the conference are use to from past years, which is a large reason why Ohio struggled with them the last time out. Not only does Akron have to prep for a different style of offense, they also have to prep for a different Bowling Green defense. They played zone last year, and Akron shot lights out. They won’t have that luxury this year as Orr’s only been using it against teams who aren’t all that great of shooting teams (hence, Ohio last time out). Tough little schedule here for Akron and playing on the tail end of a three game roady against three tough defenses against a team with revenge on the third roady should prove to be a bit tough to overcome. BG’s quick, and if Akron wants to play that type of game which they normally do, I think they’re going to struggle to keep up. And again, if the pace is up there, then Akron’s Marshall is taken out of the game to an extent.
This is it:
5* Tennessee State -5
2* Bowling Green +2
2* Charlotte/Umass Under 146
1* Alabama -11.5
1* ODU/Delaware Under 127
1* Arkansas/Ole Miss Over 139
And some leans:
CMU/EMU Over 112
Wanted to side with CMU b/c EMU has no one to guard Zeigler. I’m a little shy in backing them on the road where they sucked, so I pointed to the over instead. The pace probably isn’t going to be there, but neither team’s defense is as good as it was last year, and they both play zone. Pace, no. Opportunities, yes.
PSU/Nebraska Under 114.5
Grab a pillow, turn it on, and take a nap.
Memphis -7
Southern Miss has played a bunch of nobodies for the better part of the past month, and I just don’t think I’m going to get their best shot coming off Tulane’s style in OT. Furthermore, they’ve been winning games with their offense, and they’re finally matched up with someone who can outscore them. The defense has yielded some awfully high #’s to some pretty bad offenses over the course of December. From gathering info on Southern Miss, they’ve pretty much acknowledged the fact that this is the game they’ve been looking forward to for a long time, they’ve said that they’ve sucked in recent years against Memphis (they haven’t beaten them in something like 16 games), and they’ve said that they won’t be scared going into a tough hostile environment. It was all over before the season started and it’s all over now, and it put me in the position of this game being more of a mental distraction than anything. Sometimes teams can sort of “overkill” the situation, and I think this would be one of those times. They’ll have a better chance at home later on in the season, and just a hunch here, but I think this game serves as a wake-up call.
Rice +2
I think Rice’s inability to guard the three-ball sort of leads this game into an up and down pace that SMU doesn’t want to be a part of. Doesn’t really make sense, and I don’t have the time to look into it, but if Rice is able to control the tempo, SMU doesn’t have the horses (no pun intended) to run. Rice defends the post really well and SMU’s guard defense (or lack thereof) is weak.
GL
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