Ivy League Friday/Saturday, Week 5

BROWN @ HARVARD -15

Alright, last game of the night.  Harvard comes into this one having accepted its fate of not winning the league after putting up a great effort last Friday night against Cornell but ultimately getting outclassed, and they responded well to that game when they blasted Columbia the next night.  Into town comes Brown, who I last week said was the most underrated team in the league and that it was secretly playing pretty good ball the past week or two without anybody noticing.  Well, after beating Penn and Princeton on the road (while I bet them to beat Penn and thought they could cover against Princeton, even I was shocked they could win that one outright in a game Princeton needed), they're not gonna sneak up on anybody this weekend.

In their last meeting two weeks ago, Brown hung with Harvard for the first half before Harvard pulled away in the second for the easy win (and cover).  Both teams are considerably healthier for this one, as Brown has Mullery and Sullivan both back at full strength, and Harvard is starting to get its big men healthy again, with Wright (a key) and Van Nest (irrelevant but provides depth) both returning last weekend and Mangarelli (a key reserve) possibly set to return tonight (he also went last weekend).

Brown is playing its best ball of the season at the moment, especially offensively, where last weekend they were moving the ball really well and capitalizing on some outstanding shooting.  But the thing is, so is Harvard, as the recent emergence of freshman forward Kyle Casey as a future all-Ivy type player has given them an outstanding second option on offense to star senior guard Jeremy Lin.  This is a clash of two teams on the upswing and it's a tough game to pick.  Harvard appears to be playing too well and too complete a game on both ends of the floor for this game to be close in the final minutes at home, but Brown is playing well enough that it could easily stay within the number.

SUMMARY / LOOK-AHEAD

As you can see, I don't feel too strong about any of the games tonight right now.  The only play I've locked in is the Penn-Columbia OVER.  I may add a small play or two, or I may not, but that will be the only standard-or-better bet for me tonight.

However, there are a few possible side plays I might like tomorrow night, depending on how things set up tonight:

-I like Cornell tomorrow night.  It should be a really special senior night in which the best players on the best team in the program's history all get recognized.  That emotion, combined with an unbelievable revenge spot in which they'll seek to avenge their only League loss to Penn, could make this a big one.  Also, Penn's stars Rosen and Eggleston have fared far worse on Saturday nights in the League this year, probably because of how many minutes they played the night before and just being worn down.  It'll probably be a really nice spot for a Cornell play.  Probably my favorite spot for a side play this weekend.

-I might like Harvard tomorrow night.  If Yale plays well enough to win at Dartmouth tonight, there could be some decent value on Harvard tomorrow night at home, playing well, in a rivalry game, on senior night.  Depending on how their two games tonight go, this is something I might consider tomorrow.

-If by any chance Dartmouth beats Yale tonight, I may consider playing Brown to beat them tomorrow in a game that should open around a pick (I guessed Dartmouth -1 last night).

That's it for now.  Feel free to ask any questions you may have, and I'll do my best to answer.  Catch you guys later...

DMON, I mentioned in Kiwi's thread that I just discovered you. It's funny because the way I found you was reading through that degen thread on the 1st half Gonzaga play last night.... nice hit by the way.

After reading through a few of your write ups, I have to say that I'm very impressed with your knowledge of the ivy league.

Thanks for the insightful write ups today. No B.S., just a straight breakdown on all the games....I love that.

I'll definitely be looking for you in the future.

Here's to Penn's new up tempo offense!!

Thanks for sharing with the forum

Yeah that was fun last night.  I don't do that real often (and when I do, I don't bother to post), but it was a good way to blow off some steam and it was fun hitting that one.

I enjoy sharing whatever Ivy League knowledge I have.  It's a league most people know little about, and since I'm an alum and follow this league intently, I feel as though I owe it to the board to share some info.  As you can see, I don't even have plays in most of those games, but I try to do solid writeups anyway just in case anybody is considering betting the game and could use some information.

And whenever I do post a play, be it in the Ivy League or any other, I'll always do a writeup explaining why.  If people want to follow my bet, it should be because they agree with my reasoning and because it matches their outlook and betting philosophy.  And if they read my reasoning and disagree, they know to lay off.  Maybe it's just me, but I feel like the point of this board is helping each other with our betting decisions and that just posting a pick without any support doesn't really do that.

Good luck to all.  Let's go OOOOVER in Penn/Columbia!

Thanks DMON. You're a true asset to the site. And again, I really appreciate the write ups.

I'm off to take the wife out for dinner and drinks... it's her b-day. I'll be sneaking into the bathroom to check that Penn/Columbia score on my phone.....let's get that over!!!

BOL to everyone

Some quick halftime analysis:

Yale leads Dartmouth 26-16.  36 possessions for each team.  0.73 points per possessions (ppp) for Yale to 0.44 for Dartmouth.

Penn leads Columbia 30-27.  28 possessions for each team.  1.08 ppp for Penn to 0.97 for Columbia.

Harvard leads Brown 54-33.  39 possessions for each team.  1.37 ppp for Harvard to 0.84 for Brown.

Cornell leads Princeton 26-24.  26 possessions for Princeton and 27 for Cornell.  0.97 ppp for Cornell to 0.91 for Princeton.

Anyone else a bit surprised by this Brown lay-down? 

Well that OVER wasn't even close.  The game only played at 56-57 possessions.  With Penn's offensive efficiency of 0.98 and Columbia's of 0.99, the game would've needed 64-65 possessions for it to over.  I really thought this one would've gotten at least that many, but it wasn't even close.  My bad.  I was just way off on that total.

Final scores from around the league:

Cornell 50, Princeton 47 (Princeton cover, under)
Columbia 56, Penn 55 (Penn cover, under)
Yale 55, Dartmouth 45 (Yale cover, under)
Harvard 91, Brown 71 (Harvard cover, over)

And it went under again.

Here are the current lines for today:

Penn @ Cornell -19.5
Princeton @ Columbia +5.5
Brown @ Dartmouth +1
Yale @ Harvard -13

I'm hella hungover at the moment, so I'll be back in a bit to get to work.  Here's hoping everyone has a great day today.

Ready for your analysis Dmon. Get yourself some coffee and a danish....if you were down south I would recommend a Sweet Tea from BoJangles because it is the ultimate hangover cure.

Im wearing out my F5 button Dmon....

PENN @ CORNELL -19.5

OK, folks.  As I think I mentioned in yesterday's look-ahead to Saturday post, this is probably my favorite game today.  It almost set up perfectly, and while it's not perfect, I still think I'll be playing this game in some capacity today.

As most people know, Penn pulled one of the greatest upsets of this college basketball season, if not the greatest, when it not only beat but blew out Cornell at the Palestra two weeks ago.  I've tried to make it clear in this space that that was not a matter of Cornell "choking" or losing the game themselves, but rather had more to do with Penn playing the perfect game and with more intensity than you've probably ever seen from a three-win team in February.  The game meant everything to a Penn program looking to start its climb back to prominence, maybe even a little too much.  So whatever you do, don't use the following logic when looking at today's game:  "Penn beat these guys by 15 last time.  There's no way they'll lose by 20 this time.  No way home court can matter by 35 points" (or any variation thereof).  Thank you.

Onto today's game.  There are a couple of emotional/energy angles in play in this game that all point to Cornell:

1)  The revenge factor.  This one seems pretty obvious.  Penn dealt Cornell its only league loss.  And Cornell knows they lost that game because they didn't come anywhere near to matching Penn's intensity.  Sure, lots of flukey things went against them, but when you get out-worked, out-hustled, and out-efforted, you're usually gonna lose.  But they understand that, and it's time for them to return the favor.  Coach Donahue will make sure that Cornell gives its best effort tonight.

2)  Senior Night.  Sometimes senior night doesn't factor into my capping much, and sometimes it does.  This is one of those rare games when it REALLY does.  This is the greatest Cornell team in the program's history.  And it's all because of one class:  this year's senior class.  Stars Wittman, Foote, and Dale led the way.  But Reeves, Jacques, Tyler, Wilkins, and Reynolds will also have their day tonight.  For those of you keeping track, that's 8 players total, their 3 stars, and 6 of the top 7 guys in their rotation.  This special class that has meant EVERYTHING to this program will have its night tonight.  Should be emotional, and should keep their energy high, as if they needed any help getting motivated after losing to Penn earlier this year.

3)  The Penn fatigue factor.  Last night for Penn Rosen played 39 minutes, Eggleston 37, Monckton 38, and Belcore 32.  It's no secret that Penn is playing with zero depth right now.  So it's not all that surprising that Rosen and Eggleston, the two Penn players who have played almost 40 minutes in every game, haven't shot nearly as well on Saturday nights as they have on Fridays.  The effort and heart from the team has always been there on Saturdays, but the legs haven't always followed suit.

4)  The approaching clinch.  As I've stated a few times, there is no Ivy League tournament.  Whoever wins the regular season title gets the League's automatic NCAA bid.  And after Cornell's win over Princeton last night, the race is essentially over.  Cornell is two games up on Princeton and Harvard (1 loss vs. 3 for each of those two teams) with 3 games to go.  If Cornell wins tonight (I should say "when" Cornell wins instead of "if," but there's no need to be presumptuous), it will clinch at least a share of the league title and will have an opportunity to cut down the nets next Friday night at Brown.  The ends is in sight.  They can see their goal is right in front of them.  It's time for them to get down to business.

So those are the four emotional/energy angles pointing to Cornell.  But there's also myriad matchup factors pointing their way.  Penn really struggles to defend the perimeter and the three ball, which happens to be Cornell's biggest offensive strength.  It managed to surprise Cornell in the first matchup with its 1-3-1 zone, but Cornell has now seen it and had time to prepare for it, and they run one of the best zone offenses in the country so I'm not sure how Penn will manage to slow them down this time around.  With its depleted front-line, Penn has basically run out of bodies to throw at all-Ivy Cornell center Jeff Foote.  And on the other end, Penn has not surprisingly come back to earth since the first Cornell game, with its shooting returning to its previous crappy levels.  All the breaks went Penn's way in the first matchup, but I don't think it's too bold of a prediction to say that that won't happen again.

I mentioned in the first paragraph that this didn't set up perfectly, and here's what I meant.  Yesterday Penn lost a heartbreaking nailbiter to Columbia in a game they had and coughed up when their 79% free throw shooter Jack Eggleston missed three FT's out of four in the final minute and Columbia's big man hit a fadeaway prayer of a jumper with 2 seconds to go.  Had Penn won that game, they would have already been able to call this weekend a success after earning the road split.  But now if I want to back to Cornell, I have to go against a team that should still be hungry and that hasn't been swept on an Ivy weekend this season.  Sure they'll probably still get smoked in this one, but if it happens, it'll be because Cornell played great and brought tremendous energy and not because Penn came out flat or lifeless.  Penn's been feisty all Ivy season and has played with tremendous heart, and I don't expect that to change today.

Still, when the far superior team that also has the matchup edge ALSO happens to have all the emotional advantage (and you KNOW Cornell's gonna come to play today), it's hard not to like them.  I still haven't figured out in what capacity I'm going to play them (straight? 1H? in some kind of tease?), but Cornell tonight is my favorite side play of the Ivy weekend for all the aforementioned reasons.

PRINCETON @ COLUMBIA +5.5

This is a really bad matchup for Columbia, but my biggest concern in the game would be how Princeton responds to basically getting eliminated from the Ivy race after losing a tough, close, hard-fought game to Cornell yesterday.

As I just mentioned, Columbia matches up extremely poorly with Princeton.  Princeton's great interior D should cause serious problems for a team that tries so hard to get inside for its points.  And Princeton's heady turnover-inducing D should be able to force turnover-prone Columbia into tons of mistakes.  And Columbia's weak perimeter/3-point D should allow Princeton to do its thing on offense.

When these teams played the first time in Princeton two weeks ago, it was actually a really close game.  Princeton's poor first half shooting and mental lapses in which they gave the ball away a ton in the first half allowed Columbia to take a three point lead into the locker room.  But in the second half, Princeton picked it up a bit on offense and their D reallllly clamped down, allowing them to pull away for the 55-45 win.

Normally I would say Columbia's in a real bad spot here after they got a lucky, gift win yesterday against Penn.  I tend to think that after a team gets a lucky win on a Friday night, it tends to slack off a bit on Saturday night.  But the fact that it's senior night for Scott, Bulger, and Foley (who didn't play again last night) should make them want to play.  I'm just not sure it will have much of an impact.

The real question in this game is how Princeton responds to its game yesterday.  It was very similar to the first Cornell-Princeton game actually in that Princeton was able to dictate tempo and play the game at its pace and that Cornell led the entire way but could never pull away.  Princeton had the ball down 3 in the closing seconds with a chance to tie, but couldn't pull it out and Cornell hung on for what was essentially a race-ending victory.  The league is now Cornell's.  How will Princeton respond to that?  The best case scenario is how Harvard handled a similar situation last Friday night (when Cornell went in there and ended their hopes and reams), by coming out guns blazing on Saturday night.  Like Harvard, Princeton is a young team and a program on the way up.    With Cornell's entire core graduating, Princeton will likely be the league favorite (or at least co-favorite) next year.  The future is bright, and you would like to think that they could take the healthy mental approach of "This just wasn't our year.  It wasn't meant to be" and come out firing tonight (like Harvard did last week).  The risk is that they get down on themselves and instead think about how close they came to beating Cornell twice and letting it really get to them.  If they can't let go of yesterday's game and let it affect them tonight, that could be a problem.  They really wanted that game yesterday.  And they came up short.  Harvard bounced back in a similar spot last weekend, but that was at home.  Princeton is not.  I am worried.

As much as the matchups point to Princeton winning semi-comfortably, I probably won't play it because I'm legimitately concerned about how they mentally respond to last night's game.

And now a break from your regularly schedule Ivy programming for a quick writeup on another game:

MARYLAND @ V TECH -1

This is purely a spot/situational bet for me.  One team is in a terrible spot; one team is in a fantastic spot.  This is a lot like my Notre Dame play against Pitt in the middle of the week where the spot/situational factors for the game overweigh any matchup considerations of concerns I may have.

First, let's start off with Maryland.  Kind of like Pitt earlier this week, they are in an absolutely TERRIBLE emotional spot coming into this game.  They are coming off of two big home wins (against G Tech and Clemson) over very good teams, and in the most recent one avenged one of their three ACC losses.  They were lucky to get out of that G Tech game with a win when they hit that crazy buzzer beater heave to win it, and in the Clemson game they needed a big second half comeback to pull out the W.  Now they're sitting pretty at 10-3 in the ACC, they've locked up their tourney berth, and at this point don't really have any thing they need to play for.  Also, they have their biggest game of the season on deck, as they host Duke at home on Wednesday.  Just like Pitt earlier this week, they should kind of be on cruise control in this game, as it's just so damn hard to really get up for every single game.  And in this game when they're essentially playing for nothing and don't need to bring it, they're extremely susceptible to just not showing up and having an off game.  This is a horrendous, scary, dangerous spot for them.

Virginia Tech, on the other hand, does need this game.  It's coming off of two tough road losses to Duke and BC, and now finds its back against the wall for the first time in a long time.  Coming off of those two losses, it's gut-check time.  For a good team that prides itself on defense and intensity, this is exactly the kind of emotional spot you want them to be in coming into a big game.  They should be hungry and focused.  When you contrast the spot they're in to the spot Maryland's in, you see a pretty remarkable difference in how bad each team needs this game and how much they'll want it out there on the floor.

In this kind of game, you can almost throw the matchups out the window.  Sure, Maryland's a little better (just like Pitt is/was better than ND), but it's so hard to win a road game when you can't match the energy of the other team.  I'm expecting V Tech to bring all the intensity to this one and that Maryland will ultimately fall short in its bid to match it.  I'm rolling with the spot and situation here, and I'm hoping that Virginia Tech can get it done for me.  If Maryland can somehow play its heart out or bring its A-game to this one, I'll tip my cap to them and give them all the credit in the world for winning a tough game in a horrendous spot.  But I need to take my chances with Virginia Tech in this situation.  My first locked in play of the day:

VIRGINIA TECH -1

Great write-ups. ALways enjoying reading your thoughts on these match ups!

great to see you are also on v-tec

bol

And now back to the Ivy games with a writeup on Game #3:

BROWN @ DARMOUTH +2

Well, the books are finally starting to adjust to Brown, who had previously been the most underrated team in the league over the past 3 weeks.  This team has really been playing well for a few weeks now without anybody noticing.  In this one, the matchups give Brown a huge edge but the situational angle slightly points to Dartmouth.

Let's look at the matchup first.  Any talk of this game has to start with Brown's offense, which has been exceptional as of late.  Finally healthy, they're really starting to click on all cylinders.  Their two leading scorers Matt Mullery and Peter Sullivan were both injured early in the Ivy season and took a few games to get back to full strength even when they did return.  But they're both at 100% now and this offense has been clicking the past 5 games.  They've now had five straight really strong offensive performances (3 of them against good defenses) that have been keyed by really hot shooting.  Suffice it to say, I think their inside-out attack led by Matt Mullery's tremendous inside game and passing + their array of good three point shooters should be able to put up points today.

Brown's biggest weakness is its defense, which is way too passive and doesn't really have the athletes or quickness to deny penetration or defend the rim.  This actually should help Dartmouth a little bit, since Dartmouth's offense features a lot of 1-on-1 attacking the basket and does not depend on the three ball at all (their offense is #1 in the country in the % of their points that come from two-pointers).  So here we have a case of Brown's biggest defensive weakness happening to match up with Dartmouth's biggest "strength" (I put strength in quotes because suggesting that Dartmouth has any offense strength at all is ridiculous, but I'm speaking relative to the rest of their horrendous offense).  Still, I do feel confident that Brown will get its points, so the question becomes will this matchup edge for Dartmouth be enough to help them match Brown bucket for bucket.  I'm not sure it will be.

Situationally, I guess you have to say Dartmouth has a slight edge.  It is senior night (for Biber, Pride, Sanders), so the 12 fans in attendance should give them a nice round of applause.  Excuse my sarcasm, but I don't think that will factor in too much.  The bigger psychological angle here that is working in Dartmouth's favor is that this is by far its best chance at a win the rest of the season.  Sure, they got their 1 win last weekend at home against Columbia so any notion of being "due" is gone, but still you have to think the players are self-aware enough to know that this is their last good chance at another win.  Like I said, though, the situational angle is pretty negligible here and only a slight advantage for Dartmouth.

I am definitely considering a play on Brown here.  TBD...

Interesting concerns on Princeton, but I just cant pass up -6 on this big of a mismatch.

Any totals thoughts?

Honestly I haven't even looked at the totals yet.  Can I get back to you on that one after I finish this last write up real quick?  I'll take a look at them soon.

i get penn +21,5  at my local bookie, i might risk it.

and somehow you convinced me of brown

maybe i'll play a lil parlay here

Last Ivy game of the weekend:

YALE @ HARVARD -13.5

Well this is a game I personally am not even considering playing, but I'll do a writeup anyway just to be thorough.

Harvard is playing really great ball these past three weekends.  Despite a tough loss last Friday night to Cornell that took them out of title contention (in a game they still played very well in, by the way), they have responded excellently.  They pounded Columbia next night and lit up a Brown team that's been playing really well last night.  With a win tonight, they would set a record for most wins in a season in school history.  In addition to playing for that tonight, it's also Senior Night.  Pat Magnarelli and Doug Miller should both get nice receptions, but this one is all about Jeremy Lin, Harvard's senior leader and one of the best players in school history.  Tonight's atmosphere should be electric against their #1 rival, on Senior Night, for a team that's witnessed a revival in their program this season that has generated a surprising amount of energy and great crowds at home the past few games.

However, the matchups do seem to point to Yale (as they did two weeks ago when I made Yale my biggest play of the Ivy season at home against Harvard).  Harvard's frontline is still banged up, and Yale still runs its offense through its big guys more than any team in the League.  Wright and Mangarelli are both back from injury for Harvard up front, but both are still banged up and can only give limited minutes off the bench (Wright, for his part, is still noticeably hobbling).  Also, this is a huge rivalry game for both teams, and as a result more often than not these matchups tend to be close.  Combining Yale's inside presence and Harvard's injuries with the rivalry game angle, I wouldn't want to lay 13.5 points here.

As I said, I'm not touching a side in this game, but if I absolutely had to, I'd probably lean to Harvard.