Basing your plays off KPs predicted score is not the best recipe for success ....Usually bookmakers win that battle as they factor that in the line... bol today regardless
Edit...I dont mean you but just in general
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Basing your plays off KPs predicted score is not the best recipe for success ....Usually bookmakers win that battle as they factor that in the line... bol today regardless
@train,
no issues with you saying 'you' LOL......appreciate the feedback..... but FYI: i never look at their 'predicted score' model...... i look at the "adjEM" (adjust efficiencies metrics) and then based my own spread off those, discounted by projected possessions. and dig deeper with the
height/experience page as well as the four factors and point distribution mostly.
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@train,
no issues with you saying 'you' LOL......appreciate the feedback..... but FYI: i never look at their 'predicted score' model...... i look at the "adjEM" (adjust efficiencies metrics) and then based my own spread off those, discounted by projected possessions. and dig deeper with the
height/experience page as well as the four factors and point distribution mostly.
@train, no issues with you saying 'you' LOL......appreciate the feedback..... but FYI: i never look at their 'predicted score' model...... i look at the "adjEM" (adjust efficiencies metrics) and then based my own spread off those, discounted by projected possessions. and dig deeper with the height/experience page as well as the four factors and point distribution mostly.
Cut from the same cloth
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Quote Originally Posted by pederson16:
@train, no issues with you saying 'you' LOL......appreciate the feedback..... but FYI: i never look at their 'predicted score' model...... i look at the "adjEM" (adjust efficiencies metrics) and then based my own spread off those, discounted by projected possessions. and dig deeper with the height/experience page as well as the four factors and point distribution mostly.
611 Clemson +3 -114 x5 ....................... strong play. teams are pretty darn even in most respects and line is right on based on Clemson being slightly stronger Off and Def Eff but game @ Miami. ............................... taking a deep dive: Clemson is the 9th best 3 pt shooting team in the nation at 42% and also a top 100 2-pt shooting team at 53%. They are weak on FTs at 67%. On the other hand, MiamiFL is garbage from distance at 28%, is close to Clemson from 2 and is much better from the FT line at 75%. However, Clemson doesn't rely on getting to the bucket or to the line and so their FT weakness is mitigated by a Miami team that really doesn't allow many FTs. Clemson will take advantage of a Miami Def that allows opponents 40%+ of their points from distance. And on the other side, Miami offense is heavily reliant on getting to the FT line, which Clemson will mitigate by their great help defense where they switch on all screens and always double down in the post forcing the kickout to 3 ball, again which Miami shoots 1/4 at on the season. Lastly and likely most importantly, the 3 losses, Miami played against top -100 rated opponents and shot 4/16, 4/20, and 6/26 from 3 while their opponents lit them up, i.e. Alabama shooting 16/26 and winning by 32. If Clemson is shooting their season avg of 42% from 3, they'll win by double digits and this won't be close, but even if it is close bc Miami role players chipping in at home, Clemson can make the big shots down to the wire and Miami likely cannot. Don't think it'll be close but I'd be an idiot not to take the points given.
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611 Clemson +3 -114 x5 ....................... strong play. teams are pretty darn even in most respects and line is right on based on Clemson being slightly stronger Off and Def Eff but game @ Miami. ............................... taking a deep dive: Clemson is the 9th best 3 pt shooting team in the nation at 42% and also a top 100 2-pt shooting team at 53%. They are weak on FTs at 67%. On the other hand, MiamiFL is garbage from distance at 28%, is close to Clemson from 2 and is much better from the FT line at 75%. However, Clemson doesn't rely on getting to the bucket or to the line and so their FT weakness is mitigated by a Miami team that really doesn't allow many FTs. Clemson will take advantage of a Miami Def that allows opponents 40%+ of their points from distance. And on the other side, Miami offense is heavily reliant on getting to the FT line, which Clemson will mitigate by their great help defense where they switch on all screens and always double down in the post forcing the kickout to 3 ball, again which Miami shoots 1/4 at on the season. Lastly and likely most importantly, the 3 losses, Miami played against top -100 rated opponents and shot 4/16, 4/20, and 6/26 from 3 while their opponents lit them up, i.e. Alabama shooting 16/26 and winning by 32. If Clemson is shooting their season avg of 42% from 3, they'll win by double digits and this won't be close, but even if it is close bc Miami role players chipping in at home, Clemson can make the big shots down to the wire and Miami likely cannot. Don't think it'll be close but I'd be an idiot not to take the points given.
adding:
611 (Miami Florida / Clemson) Over 133½ -110 x1....................... 611 (Miami Florida / Clemson) Over 62½ -110 x1 ................ ....... correlated to Clemson success. If you think Clemson will shoot 24+ 3s and make at least 10+ of them, then it's likely the total will go over. In the 3 Miami losses to top-100 teams, those teams, as noted above, rained from 30 and all 3 games went over this total . ........ good luck and play within yourselves... only plays today as I am finishing moving / unpacking and dont have time
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adding:
611 (Miami Florida / Clemson) Over 133½ -110 x1....................... 611 (Miami Florida / Clemson) Over 62½ -110 x1 ................ ....... correlated to Clemson success. If you think Clemson will shoot 24+ 3s and make at least 10+ of them, then it's likely the total will go over. In the 3 Miami losses to top-100 teams, those teams, as noted above, rained from 30 and all 3 games went over this total . ........ good luck and play within yourselves... only plays today as I am finishing moving / unpacking and dont have time
306288 Houston -33½ -110 x1
306288 Houston -19 -110 for 1st Half x1 ........ no time. they should be -41. prob win 90-48. 1-2 last time out -3.5 units . update later
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306288 Houston -33½ -110 x1
306288 Houston -19 -110 for 1st Half x1 ........ no time. they should be -41. prob win 90-48. 1-2 last time out -3.5 units . update later
306288 Houston -33½ -110 x1 306288 Houston -19 -110 for 1st Half x1 ........ no time. they should be -41. prob win 90-48. 1-2 last time out -3.5 units . update later
Well that sucked. Missed last 2 ft then recovered the ball for offensive rebound only to give it up for game covering final layup.
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Quote Originally Posted by pederson16:
306288 Houston -33½ -110 x1 306288 Houston -19 -110 for 1st Half x1 ........ no time. they should be -41. prob win 90-48. 1-2 last time out -3.5 units . update later
Well that sucked. Missed last 2 ft then recovered the ball for offensive rebound only to give it up for game covering final layup.
little time, been busy moving..... been on Depaul and over multiple times this year, no reason to stop in this one. depaul has very significant shooting % edge here, refer to Kenpom 2022 Miscellaneous Team Stats: Offense should you choose to dig deeper. Depaul wants to push pace at 33rd tempo and Ville happy to run with them at 115th. should be high scoring and close. good luck... in vegas dec 17-20, will have more time then and thereafter
881 Depaul 8 -115 x2
881 Depaul +280 x0.5
881 Over 147 -110 x2
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little time, been busy moving..... been on Depaul and over multiple times this year, no reason to stop in this one. depaul has very significant shooting % edge here, refer to Kenpom 2022 Miscellaneous Team Stats: Offense should you choose to dig deeper. Depaul wants to push pace at 33rd tempo and Ville happy to run with them at 115th. should be high scoring and close. good luck... in vegas dec 17-20, will have more time then and thereafter
881 Depaul 8 -115 x2
881 Depaul +280 x0.5
881 Over 147 -110 x2
627 Depaul -10 -110 x5 UIC one of the worst shooting teams and short and no depth. UIC is 2nd to last in nation at getting to the FT line and FT points they have no chance here unless they shoot 60% from 3. Plus, UIC gives up all their points defensively from FT and 2, which is Depauls bread and butter, not from distance. No lookahead here for Depaul to NU on Sat which will be a monster OVER play for me whilst in Vegas Fri-Mon. Depaul smashes here
624 Creighton -7 -110 x3
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627 Depaul -10 -110 x5 UIC one of the worst shooting teams and short and no depth. UIC is 2nd to last in nation at getting to the FT line and FT points they have no chance here unless they shoot 60% from 3. Plus, UIC gives up all their points defensively from FT and 2, which is Depauls bread and butter, not from distance. No lookahead here for Depaul to NU on Sat which will be a monster OVER play for me whilst in Vegas Fri-Mon. Depaul smashes here
624 Creighton -7 -110 x3
Love DePaul tonight for your reasons given above, but with Creighton having Nova on deck, and ASU getting two quality wins in a row, I think the Devils keep this one within the number. GL
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Love DePaul tonight for your reasons given above, but with Creighton having Nova on deck, and ASU getting two quality wins in a row, I think the Devils keep this one within the number. GL
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