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    All Forums | College Basketball

    Holmey's $$$$ Thread TUESDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.23.16

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    bk1374
    dbronco
    soxfann1
    USC_Holmey
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    bk1374
    bk1374
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 12:21 PM ET #26

    ...to add to my betting strategy for soccer, just too many random things can happen to screw your bet.  That's why I don't go too huge on wagers, even when all signs point to it  being a solid play.  One red card, own goal, shady PK, etc, can really throw a wrench in plays.  it happens, it sucks, you have to take those lumps and move on.  Because scoring is so much lower, margin for error is reduced.  Of course, we could get a nice "random" thing to go in our favor too, and sometimes good teams create their own "luck", so to speak.  

    I just want to be clear that if you are normally a $50 bettor, going $500 on one single soccer match (or any game really) is a poor decision, and that's not ever the case on any of my plays.  If this is my only loss on the day, it will end up being a VERY nice day still!


    Reply
    ...to add to my betting strategy for soccer, just too many random things can happen to screw your bet.  That's why I don't go too huge on wagers, even when all signs point to it  being a solid play.  One red card, own goal, shady PK, etc, can really throw a wrench in plays.  it happens, it sucks, you have to take those lumps and move on.  Because scoring is so much lower, margin for error is reduced.  Of course, we could get a nice "random" thing to go in our favor too, and sometimes good teams create their own "luck", so to speak.  

    I just want to be clear that if you are normally a $50 bettor, going $500 on one single soccer match (or any game really) is a poor decision, and that's not ever the case on any of my plays.  If this is my only loss on the day, it will end up being a VERY nice day still!


     
    dbronco
    dbronco
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 1:02 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

    $$$$ play for Tuesday 2/23

    English Championship League

    Sheffield Wednesday ML (+105) (line per 5 dimes, would play it all the way to -120 here)

    Sheffield plays hosts to Queens Park Rangers today.  They are currently in the 6 spot and very much in the race for a chance to get promoted to the Premier League. They were a mainstay there in the 80's and 90's and have had a bumpy road the past 20 in the lower tiers.  Anyway, that in and of itself is no reason to wager them today, just some background, they are having a good season to date.  QPR on the other hand aren't going anywhere this season. They are floating in the middle, drawing a lot, and are fairly safe from relegation (14 pts clear) and probably a bit too far from the top 6 to make a legit run (13 pts back with 5 other clubs in front of them).

    My main reason for making this play is Sheffield's recent form, specifical at home.  They haven't lost at home since late August, and only 4 draws since then too (compared to 11 wins).  That includes a 3-0 cup win vs. Arsenal in October.  In league they have 9 wins and 4 draws since their last loss at home, and those four draws were to the current 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th place clubs.  They are doing what they need to do at home, drawing against the top sides and beating the rest.  

    As stated above, QPR is kind of just sleepwalking their way through the season and are just floating in the middle of the pack.  They only have 2 wins since 12/3/15, one on the road vs. Rotherham (who's in 22nd place) and another vs. Ipswich (9th place).  They've really done nothing on the road of late.

    Over 2.5 might have some value here too, not sure if Wednesday will put up a clean sheet, a 3-1 or 2-1 win is what I am seeing here. 

    In short, I just think they are winning this match more times than they are drawing/losing it, and getting plus $$$ on it is a bonus.

    I don't make HUGE plays on soccer matches, even when I'm as confident as I am here.  I've been burnt too many times.  I do make some plays larger than my small/normal plays, which is the case here.  I try not to stray too much from a flat betting strategy, but this is one time I will, and going about double on it from a normal wager, which is about as high as I go in soccer.  

    BOL everyone....................

    Nice write-up here BK  ill tail along GL 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

    $$$$ play for Tuesday 2/23

    English Championship League

    Sheffield Wednesday ML (+105) (line per 5 dimes, would play it all the way to -120 here)

    Sheffield plays hosts to Queens Park Rangers today.  They are currently in the 6 spot and very much in the race for a chance to get promoted to the Premier League. They were a mainstay there in the 80's and 90's and have had a bumpy road the past 20 in the lower tiers.  Anyway, that in and of itself is no reason to wager them today, just some background, they are having a good season to date.  QPR on the other hand aren't going anywhere this season. They are floating in the middle, drawing a lot, and are fairly safe from relegation (14 pts clear) and probably a bit too far from the top 6 to make a legit run (13 pts back with 5 other clubs in front of them).

    My main reason for making this play is Sheffield's recent form, specifical at home.  They haven't lost at home since late August, and only 4 draws since then too (compared to 11 wins).  That includes a 3-0 cup win vs. Arsenal in October.  In league they have 9 wins and 4 draws since their last loss at home, and those four draws were to the current 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th place clubs.  They are doing what they need to do at home, drawing against the top sides and beating the rest.  

    As stated above, QPR is kind of just sleepwalking their way through the season and are just floating in the middle of the pack.  They only have 2 wins since 12/3/15, one on the road vs. Rotherham (who's in 22nd place) and another vs. Ipswich (9th place).  They've really done nothing on the road of late.

    Over 2.5 might have some value here too, not sure if Wednesday will put up a clean sheet, a 3-1 or 2-1 win is what I am seeing here. 

    In short, I just think they are winning this match more times than they are drawing/losing it, and getting plus $$$ on it is a bonus.

    I don't make HUGE plays on soccer matches, even when I'm as confident as I am here.  I've been burnt too many times.  I do make some plays larger than my small/normal plays, which is the case here.  I try not to stray too much from a flat betting strategy, but this is one time I will, and going about double on it from a normal wager, which is about as high as I go in soccer.  

    BOL everyone....................

    Nice write-up here BK  ill tail along GL 
     
    soxfann1
    soxfann1
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 1:25 PM ET #28

    Quote Originally Posted by dbronco:


    Nice write-up here BK  ill tail along GL 
    Me too what's the best sight to follow this game TIA
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by dbronco:


    Nice write-up here BK  ill tail along GL 
    Me too what's the best sight to follow this game TIA
     
    bk1374
    bk1374
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 1:34 PM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by soxfann1:

    Me too what's the best sight to follow this game TIA

    Flashscore is what I use for live score updates.

    If you are looking to watch it, you'll have to stream it via a "pirate" site, and those can be tricky with their pop ups and what not, so I would only recommend it if you have sufficient ad blockers in place and decent anti-virus stuff.  That being said, this league is not always available on even those sites.  Been using this "batman stream" or just google 3pm stream, and it comes up and just pick "football".  But i don't see this game listed, so may have to just follow the live score and not watch.  
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by soxfann1:

    Me too what's the best sight to follow this game TIA

    Flashscore is what I use for live score updates.

    If you are looking to watch it, you'll have to stream it via a "pirate" site, and those can be tricky with their pop ups and what not, so I would only recommend it if you have sufficient ad blockers in place and decent anti-virus stuff.  That being said, this league is not always available on even those sites.  Been using this "batman stream" or just google 3pm stream, and it comes up and just pick "football".  But i don't see this game listed, so may have to just follow the live score and not watch.  
     
    USC_Holmey
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:09 PM ET #30

    I'm not betting it at all, but I have a feeling Barca just rips apart Arsenal's defense today.......
    Reply
    I'm not betting it at all, but I have a feeling Barca just rips apart Arsenal's defense today.......
     
    bk1374
    bk1374
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:22 PM ET #31

    Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

    I'm not betting it at all, but I have a feeling Barca just rips apart Arsenal's defense today.......

    I hope so!!  : )  No $$ on game, I do have a future on Barca to win CL though.  But just hate Arsenal.  
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

    I'm not betting it at all, but I have a feeling Barca just rips apart Arsenal's defense today.......

    I hope so!!  : )  No $$ on game, I do have a future on Barca to win CL though.  But just hate Arsenal.  
     
    USC_Holmey
    USC_Holmey
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:25 PM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


    I hope so!!  : )  No $$ on game, I do have a future on Barca to win CL though.  But just hate Arsenal.  

    Have you seen the lineups?  Are Arsenal going to put "The Telephone Pole" (Mertesacker) back there.  He's going to stand there and watch those smurfs run around him like a tree.

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


    I hope so!!  : )  No $$ on game, I do have a future on Barca to win CL though.  But just hate Arsenal.  

    Have you seen the lineups?  Are Arsenal going to put "The Telephone Pole" (Mertesacker) back there.  He's going to stand there and watch those smurfs run around him like a tree.

     
    JP13
    JP13
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:30 PM ET #33

    I hit it also a few hours ago(-110), let's get it Sheffield Wed. 
    15 minutes till showtime....BOL all. 
    Reply
    I hit it also a few hours ago(-110), let's get it Sheffield Wed. 
    15 minutes till showtime....BOL all. 
     
    JP13
    JP13
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:36 PM ET #34

    now it's showing +115 on my site.....classic! 
    Reply
    now it's showing +115 on my site.....classic! 
     
    TopFlightSports
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:36 PM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

    I'm not betting it at all, but I have a feeling Barca just rips apart Arsenal's defense today.......

    I couldn't agree more with this.  If youre site offers a team total on Barca (sometimes you can find this under live betting) I think that is the strongest play in any of the Champions League matches today.

    Betus actually offers Barca team goals over 1.5 at -160 but I would even take the over 2 which would probably be around even money.  I think thats a guaranteed push at the absolute worst.

    Not a $$$$ play for me but for anyone looking for CL action thats the strongest angle IMO
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

    I'm not betting it at all, but I have a feeling Barca just rips apart Arsenal's defense today.......

    I couldn't agree more with this.  If youre site offers a team total on Barca (sometimes you can find this under live betting) I think that is the strongest play in any of the Champions League matches today.

    Betus actually offers Barca team goals over 1.5 at -160 but I would even take the over 2 which would probably be around even money.  I think thats a guaranteed push at the absolute worst.

    Not a $$$$ play for me but for anyone looking for CL action thats the strongest angle IMO
     
    bk1374
    bk1374
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:38 PM ET #36

    Quote Originally Posted by JP13:

    now it's showing +115 on my site.....classic! 

    Yeah, my line went down too.  Fix must be in for the draw!  
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by JP13:

    now it's showing +115 on my site.....classic! 

    Yeah, my line went down too.  Fix must be in for the draw!  
     
    bk1374
    bk1374
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:40 PM ET #37

    Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

    Have you seen the lineups?  Are Arsenal going to put "The Telephone Pole" (Mertesacker) back there.  He's going to stand there and watch those smurfs run around him like a tree.


    I didn't.  Just put it on at work so not paying too much attention.

    Going to be in Milwaukee in two weeks (3/5) and the Spurs-Arsenal match is on that morning, found a cool bar that opens up early (645AM) specifically for the matches.  Hopefully I'll have some poker winnings from Friday and then watch Spurs win the North London Derby on Saturday morning!  
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

    Have you seen the lineups?  Are Arsenal going to put "The Telephone Pole" (Mertesacker) back there.  He's going to stand there and watch those smurfs run around him like a tree.


    I didn't.  Just put it on at work so not paying too much attention.

    Going to be in Milwaukee in two weeks (3/5) and the Spurs-Arsenal match is on that morning, found a cool bar that opens up early (645AM) specifically for the matches.  Hopefully I'll have some poker winnings from Friday and then watch Spurs win the North London Derby on Saturday morning!  
     
    GoodTimes_SD
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:40 PM ET #38

    Sheffield ML (+113) 
    Reply
    Sheffield ML (+113) 
     
    USC_Holmey
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:42 PM ET #39

    And there is The Telephone Pole as the captain.  I might have a better chance against Barca's front 3 than he does.
    Reply
    And there is The Telephone Pole as the captain.  I might have a better chance against Barca's front 3 than he does.
     
    USC_Holmey
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:45 PM ET #40

    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


    I didn't.  Just put it on at work so not paying too much attention.

    Going to be in Milwaukee in two weeks (3/5) and the Spurs-Arsenal match is on that morning, found a cool bar that opens up early (645AM) specifically for the matches.  Hopefully I'll have some poker winnings from Friday and then watch Spurs win the North London Derby on Saturday morning!  

    At a Milwaukee bar at 6:45 AM is elite-level fandom

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


    I didn't.  Just put it on at work so not paying too much attention.

    Going to be in Milwaukee in two weeks (3/5) and the Spurs-Arsenal match is on that morning, found a cool bar that opens up early (645AM) specifically for the matches.  Hopefully I'll have some poker winnings from Friday and then watch Spurs win the North London Derby on Saturday morning!  

    At a Milwaukee bar at 6:45 AM is elite-level fandom

     
    GtimeButler
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 2:50 PM ET #41

    I don't see anything great today. Kinda looking at Temple +6.5 but not sold on it. Anybody have a take on it?
    Reply
    I don't see anything great today. Kinda looking at Temple +6.5 but not sold on it. Anybody have a take on it?
     
    TheKrew
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 3:01 PM ET #42

    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


    I didn't.  Just put it on at work so not paying too much attention.

    Going to be in Milwaukee in two weeks (3/5) and the Spurs-Arsenal match is on that morning, found a cool bar that opens up early (645AM) specifically for the matches.  Hopefully I'll have some poker winnings from Friday and then watch Spurs win the North London Derby on Saturday morning!  

    Currently live in Milwaukee. Enjoy your time here! 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


    I didn't.  Just put it on at work so not paying too much attention.

    Going to be in Milwaukee in two weeks (3/5) and the Spurs-Arsenal match is on that morning, found a cool bar that opens up early (645AM) specifically for the matches.  Hopefully I'll have some poker winnings from Friday and then watch Spurs win the North London Derby on Saturday morning!  

    Currently live in Milwaukee. Enjoy your time here! 
     
    bigbadlag
    bigbadlag
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    Posts: 124
    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 3:12 PM ET #43

    I know I am not in the cool guy pool but I would still like to give my insight in a game.


    Clemson under 135.5

    Both these teams dont put up a hunk of point, last time they played it only put 115, that was with a great first half and a stinky 2h. expect the same today. Lets just pray for not a lot of 3p 
    Reply
    I know I am not in the cool guy pool but I would still like to give my insight in a game.


    Clemson under 135.5

    Both these teams dont put up a hunk of point, last time they played it only put 115, that was with a great first half and a stinky 2h. expect the same today. Lets just pray for not a lot of 3p 
     
    TheKrew
    TheKrew
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 3:13 PM ET #44

    No $$$ play yet for today. 

    Really like Ohio St/Michigan St Under. Almost all games against similar opponents on both sides have gone under 140. Last time I made a $$$ play for o.u it was a disaster though, lol. Best of luck.
    Reply
    No $$$ play yet for today. 

    Really like Ohio St/Michigan St Under. Almost all games against similar opponents on both sides have gone under 140. Last time I made a $$$ play for o.u it was a disaster though, lol. Best of luck.
     
    bk1374
    bk1374
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 3:17 PM ET #45

    Arsenal came to play today.  They'd better net one though, or they'll going to get burnt on the counter at some point.

    I remember when Celtic pulled off the improbable vs. Barca, although this was in the group stage.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9be3uZYvBg


    Reply
    Arsenal came to play today.  They'd better net one though, or they'll going to get burnt on the counter at some point.

    I remember when Celtic pulled off the improbable vs. Barca, although this was in the group stage.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9be3uZYvBg


     
    USC_Holmey
    USC_Holmey
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    Posts: 896
    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 3:21 PM ET #46

    Arsenal does look good here.  Barca could just pass the ball around for 90 minutes, though, and get out with a 0-0 draw which would all but guarantee an advance for them.
    Reply
    Arsenal does look good here.  Barca could just pass the ball around for 90 minutes, though, and get out with a 0-0 draw which would all but guarantee an advance for them.
     
    JP13
    JP13
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 3:32 PM ET #47

    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


    Yeah, my line went down too.  Fix must be in for the draw!  

    Ha! 

    1st half certainly was! :) 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


    Yeah, my line went down too.  Fix must be in for the draw!  

    Ha! 

    1st half certainly was! :) 
     
    bk1374
    bk1374
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 3:43 PM ET #48

    Quote Originally Posted by TheKrew:


    Currently live in Milwaukee. Enjoy your time here! 

    Thanks, I'm sure we will. Going up for the weekend, one of my friend's has a kid who is turning 21. So hitting some bars, then Potawatomi Friday night, probably nudie bar Saturday, or so I am told.  Should be a fun drunken weekend.  
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by TheKrew:


    Currently live in Milwaukee. Enjoy your time here! 

    Thanks, I'm sure we will. Going up for the weekend, one of my friend's has a kid who is turning 21. So hitting some bars, then Potawatomi Friday night, probably nudie bar Saturday, or so I am told.  Should be a fun drunken weekend.  
     
    bk1374
    bk1374
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    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 3:47 PM ET #49

    Quote Originally Posted by JP13:


    Ha! 

    1st half certainly was! :) 

    Looks like Sheffield has controlled possession and the stats are in their favor, all except the score board.  Hopefully they'll break through here shortly.  I am not watching though, just going off of HT stats from soccerway.  
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by JP13:


    Ha! 

    1st half certainly was! :) 

    Looks like Sheffield has controlled possession and the stats are in their favor, all except the score board.  Hopefully they'll break through here shortly.  I am not watching though, just going off of HT stats from soccerway.  
     
     
    GtimeButler
    GtimeButler
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    Posts: 134
    Posted: Feb. 23, 2016 - 3:50 PM ET #50

    Quote Originally Posted by TheKrew:

    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

    I didn't.  Just put it on at work so not paying too much attention.Going to be in Milwaukee in two weeks (3/5) and the Spurs-Arsenal match is on that morning, found a cool bar that opens up early (645AM) specifically for the matches.  Hopefully I'll have some poker winnings from Friday and then watch Spurs win the North London Derby on Saturday morning!  
    Currently live in Milwaukee. Enjoy your time here!

    Nice to see a fellow Wisconsinite and to have you visit USC. Make sure you hit Potawatomi
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by TheKrew:

    Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

    I didn't.  Just put it on at work so not paying too much attention.Going to be in Milwaukee in two weeks (3/5) and the Spurs-Arsenal match is on that morning, found a cool bar that opens up early (645AM) specifically for the matches.  Hopefully I'll have some poker winnings from Friday and then watch Spurs win the North London Derby on Saturday morning!  
    Currently live in Milwaukee. Enjoy your time here!

    Nice to see a fellow Wisconsinite and to have you visit USC. Make sure you hit Potawatomi
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