Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by TheKrew:
Going ahead and making Iona (+5) my $$$ play for today.
Going ahead and making Iona (+5) my $$$ play for today.
Both teams are coming into this game red-hot with Monmouth on an eight game win-streak and Iona winning five of their last six. The oddsmakers know something we don't when it comes to this line and so does the smart money as rlm favors Iona.
How can Monmouth (kenpom #53) be only a 5 point favorite against (Iona #116)? Who they not to mention already beat on Iona's home floor by 8 points? This is also taking away the fact that this will be a sold out atmosphere giving Monmouth an even better edge, right?
There is a lot to look into here. The average fan, takes Monmouth and doesn't look back. (70% right now betting Monmouth). So why do I like Iona? First in that game earlier Monmouth shot an absurd 60% from the three point line! A number which more than likely can not be duplicated as they are only hitting 38% on the year. Iona shot 45% and only 28% from three in that game yet managed to put up 102 points and stuck with them until the end. Normal regression says Iona should make more shots in this game then the last, meanwhile Monmouth should miss more shots.
Next, Iona has been just as hot as Monmouth and have been beating the same opponents by similar scores in both of these teams hot stretch.
Iona Vs Manhattan (70-56)
Monmouth Vs Manhattan (79-70)
Iona AT Canniscus (84-66)
Monmouth VS Canniscus (81-66)
Iona VS Quinnipiac (78-59)
Monmouth VS Quinnipiac (88-74)
Those are just three recent examples, most of the games lately have been very similar results like those if you check out their schedules. Iona has been playing just as good as Monmouth. The only reason you see Iona down in rankings like kenpom is due to their early season struggles.
Iona come into this game feeling disappointing after their home loss to Monmouth earlier and the revenge factor is strong here. This game will go wire to wire and hopefully be very close. I like the extra 5 points here a lot. Iona can settle in and play their game. This is Monmouth's biggest game of the year and they will be facing all of the pressure in front of a crazy crowd, national tv audience, and facing the possibility of taking home the regular season conference crown with a win.
I feel like if this game is played a million times. You would see Iona winning against the spread around 60-65% of the time. That is enough value for me to make it my money play tonight.
Best of luck on whatever side you are on. It should be a fun one to watch.
Good points Krew. I agree with everything you are saying and to further support the point you made about their poor non conference play....many of those games were played without AJ English which is a huge deal....he accounts for a huge part of their offense.
I'm choosing to not mess with this one....could go either way in my opinion....really excited for this game.
0
). I think today is a prime example of exactly what this thread is intended to do. Lots of games that aren't $$$$ plays, but the degenerate in me is probably going to throw a 1/2 unit on Monmouth, Akron ML, Ball st (possibly ML), and Rider. Also think catching double digits with Oakland might have some value to it. Still chewing on that one though
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