Holmey's $$$$ Thread THURSDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.19.16

I am on Iona tonight for 1 unit. I wish I would of got it out earlier though before it moved. +4.5 only after losing at home by 10 

Great post TFS!  I am excited to watch almost 99% a no play for me unless Monmouth gets down to a pick! 

Holmey.  Post the URL in the Help Forum and tell them you want to change the subject line to read "Friday" and I think they will.

@TopFlightSports.....Monmouth's leading rebounder Deon Jones (6.2RPG and 10PPG) is out.  How big of a factor is this?

Going ahead and making Iona (+5) my $$$ play for today. 

@TheKrew    Iona up to +6 at my book.  Lots of time to wait this line out and see what you can get it at since tip was moved back to 10PM. 

@TFS  What are your thoughts on that Siena Rider game ?   You trust them on the road?  I think they should win outright here so +2 might make me lay .1U

Holy crap you guys!  AWESOME discussions and teamwork in here today!  Now if it al adds up to winners, then its almost a perfect day!  Let's keep the momentum going from yesterday......

[Quote: Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf] 5-5 $$$$

- No playing ranked team against no rank.  The upset factor
- No playing away teams.  Home crowd is the 6th man factor
- No playing if their ATS record is poorer than opponent
- No Reverse Line Movement factor
- No playing if line is more than 10.  The OT can't cover factor

Harvard Crimson (10-14 overall, 5-12 ATS, 9-8 O/U) vs. Columbia Lions (17-8 overall, 6-8-1 ATS, 10-5 O/U)

I really don't like this one but it will be a force play for a short card today.  Both teams are poor with their ATS but columbia is a tad better, even on the worst side.

Harvard has lost 6 out of 7 previous games SU and 8 of their recent past games, they never cover the spread 0-8 ATS. 
When harvard is a dog, they are 3-6 ATS

On Jan 30th, they have played before and Harvard lost to columbia as a fav by -1.5 and they Lost at home 54 - 55

Harvard has no offense.  They are 311th ranked in the nation in offense and averages about 66 points per game.  They do have defense though at 48th in the country which is impressive. 

Columbia has a better offense ranking 114th and averaging 76 points per game.  Their defense is not too shabby at 116th in the nation. 

The key to watch here is that Harvard can not shoot free throws.  They averages about 58% at the free throw line and that means points take away which then all added up to bite them in the azz when they needed it the most. 

Harvard 2-9 SU when away 2-6 ATS away
Columbia 11-3 SU when at home 2-3-1 ATS at home

Harvard

• 1-5 ATS in their last six on Friday
• 0-6 ATS in their last six after a straight up loss
• 0-6 ATS in their last six after an ATS loss
• 0-8 ATS in their last eight overall

Columbia

• 4-1-1 ATS in their last six after an ATS loss
• 12-5 ATS in their last 17 after a straight up loss

Give me Columbia -7.5 for $$$$



I appreciate the write-up...definitely helpful. Curious why its a $$$$, when you start off the write up with "I don't like this one"? 

I wish you would've left off the first sentence..i would've been riding you.  GL

So did I, I was late and had to play the 3ball but still a winner

Thanks

Thanks, bk. I may try that later if I have a little free time....

USC -  best thread since Nropp11 used to post a few years back on a consistent basis.

This is truly what the forums were meant for...a discussion! 

Thanks...Im eyeing a couple games tomorrow..hopefully I can help.

 

Any one with a little more insight than myself like Akron -2 here?  Ever since Pollard went down for Kent St. I think they have been mediocre at best.  Akron has been solid of late and gets a huge percentage of their points from behind the three point line. Kent St. is just mediocre at stopping the three ball, while they get most of their points from inside the arch and Akron is a top 20 defense nationally at preventing 2 pt buckets.  I'm really liking Akron here, waiting for that $$$$ post to put it over the top, or even just some more insight from someone who knows the MAC a little better than me

Nice stuff on the Iona/Monmouth game and was waiting on the number from my local. I will be on Monmouth at home. Iona is 1-5 ATS as an underdog and 2-6 ATS playing a team with a winning record. Monmouth is 10-1 ATS playing teams with a winning record. I think Monmouth wins this by 10. They haven't been beat at home and want to beat Iona, bad (and yes Iona feels the same about beating them) These two teams are the best the MAAC has to offer, with Siena a close third. This is Monmouth's MAAC year. They still IMO have an outside chance at getting an at large bid with the wins they have. Winning and winning big against a tough Iona squad is important

Many,many good points posted by TheKrew

$$$$$ Monmouth -5'

Adding Bubba Watson -110 over Justin Rose.  Shot a 66 yesterday and has finished top 20 in 5 of 9 tries out here.  Long ball hitter but was more impressed with his short game yesterday.  

WMI and others, thoughts on the Ball St./NIU game?  I like Ball St. -3 at home. Nationally televised game I think they get up for.  Can they mitigate the turnovers enough against NIUs zone press? If so, then they can definitely exploit the zone press from behind the arc and bomb away all night.  Appreciate all thoughts/insight. Called out WMI personally since he replied to my Akron thoughts, and seems to enjoy a little MACtion  

$$$$ THREAD RESULTS/STANDINGS THRU FEB. 18

Thursday $$$$ W/L: 10-3
TOTAL OVERALL W/L TO DATE: 108-95-4

$$$$ OF THE DAY:

STANDINGS:
I can't type out everyone's name any more here, so from now on, the Standings will show people who have made a minimum number of $$$$'s.

MINIMUM OF 3 $$$$'s MADE
(I moved it back to a min. of 3 for just today probably)

BIG DOG
(Leading $$$$-er)
1. bubbaski27 (8-3)
2. wmi799 (5-1)
3. rf_dawg (3-0)
3. Xdresser (3-0)
5. Gtimebutler (4-1)
5. jroc1247 (4-1)
7. jimc0911 (5-2)
8. jimmybigmits (3-1-1)
8. gatorbear (3-1)
10. USC_Holmey (5-3-1)
10. ncaabb (5-3)
12. TheKrew (2-1-1)
12. Benzis (2-1)
14. FenwayFrank (3-2)
15. Desertcapper (4-3)
16. Appleton40 (2-2)
16. wgomel21 (2-2)
16. BadTimes (2-2)
19. nfl_brosuf (5-5)
20. bk1274 (1-2)
20. crownpeach (1-2)
20. D_Frash (1-2)
20. Da_Oracle (1-2)
20. ming01 (1-2)
20. Rogers4roy (1-2)
20. TE88 (1-2)
27. magiccarpetride (2-3)
28. truthcapper (1-3-1)
28. BarneysDad (1-3)
28. silversilver (1-3)
31. forty9ersfan80 (2-6)

Others at (2-0) --- Madden21

Thanks guys and good luck today!

I got to all the Toledo Rocket Games and saw most of the teams in the MAC. Am heading to a road game tomorrow to see the Rockets play EMU.  MAC is really tough to bet due to the fact that there is a lot of pariety.  I am really skeptical about Akron on the road after seeing the Rockets handle em a while back. I am steering clear of it like most MAC bets!! 

Hope this helps....  

Got blown out on the Idaho State bet last night but was smart enough to tail TFS on the Cal bet at least!!

@PasstheKuchar

Thanks for the Jacobson pick. Blindly tailed.

Da_Oracle - I lean towards the home team in this one.A win keeps them on top of the MAC West standings. Using KP conference ratings, they have more on offense than N Illinois, but N Illinois has a slight edge defensively and has been solid ATS against Ball State. Ball State is solid at home, but this could be close in and go either way ATS. No play for me

Looks like I'm in the minority but I like UIC +8. Will have right up on why when I can get to my laptop.