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Holmey's $$$$ Thread MONDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.22.16

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Participants:

Posts: 77

Butta4

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 224

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 4:28 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:

i am locked to this bet no real way i could cancel it but i believe the math if you look at my survivor profile you could see my one shots are doing great ........ and that to me is real money if i could run a 25-0 there be 100,000 g and in my world thats about as good as it gets.

I'm not trying to talk you out of it at all. I'm still quite new to gambling/capping games, so I was actually looking to have a discussion about it to try to understand over/unders a little better as currently every time I play one I end up on the wrong side.

Good luck with your play today, I really do hope you cash in.

nature1970

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 21593

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 4:29 PM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:

Hey there, Nature~

If one really wants to get out of a bet and can't get out of it, one could do a counter-bet of the exact opposite -- that way one would be out just juice and not any unit[s].

Nice discussion here today!

never really thought of that... local takes a 10% handle a min bet in basket ball is 20. so 22 win =40 but with cbb their is not much local interest and then no real way to sell the bet to someone else at profit or loss i deal with this man for many years it works for me more than online bets because i can go down at the end of the week hand an envelope or take an envelope and no waiting for a check to make its journey across the pond. i made this one i just stick with it.... horses and bet america works as well its in the us and can move money to and from my account with ease.

firm believer if you have something that works dont fix it..............lolol any way that game i believe and still believe will exceed the lines expectations of 129. miami guards draining 3 pointersand virginia patiently moving into the paint this is going to be high scoring affair. the scouts for nba i believe will be looking at this game alot of great talent could be spotted for a shot at least the devolopement nba teams

imsoti8

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 958

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 4:39 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:

just crushing raw numbers here but maiami makes 76 and gives up66

unv makes 71 and gives up 59.5

awat teams offense vs opponent defemse gives an avg of 69.5

away teams defensive vs home teams offense an avg of 67.7

leaving a 1.8 spread favoring virgina and a mean score of 139

not sure though the drop....furthur. seems unrealistic inmho

Great point! I see a lot of foul shots from both sides. More fouls means more FREE throws, points scored when the clock stops. However if this game is close with 3-4 minutes left around 55 - 55 then all over backers will need OT in order to hit the over.

nature1970

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 21593

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 4:49 PM ET #54

so if the score at the half was 32-32 for the 128 to hit

do you think the second half would not pick up tempo guess what i looking for is what the first half score is to sweat the spread.

Tiltingchaser

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2016

Posts: 318

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 4:53 PM ET #55

Look forward to this thread everyday. Great info for a noob like me.

USC_Holmey

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 896

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 5:03 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by Tiltingchaser:

Look forward to this thread everyday. Great info for a noob like me.

That's great to hear. Good luck, sir!

bk1374

Captain

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 7891

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 5:30 PM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

Most books have them, probably just under their golf section. But they likely won't be out until tee-times and groups are set, which might not be until Tues/Wed in some cases, although I'm not 100% sure on that.

No $$$$ plays for me today for sure.

In Italy, my gut says AC Milan has value at +0.5 (+150) or even on ML at around +500. But I don't wager Italy much (never had a good feel for it, not to mention the fixing scandal a few years back). Might make a small play on it for some daytime degen action though. Over 2.5 in the FA Cup match might be good too, but may need Man U to net all 3.

BOL today all.....................

I need to trust my gut more.

Roadrunner069

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2016

Posts: 62

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 6:00 PM ET #58

Playing 516 Miami Under 129........Both play good D and big game for both teams. Should be a nice slow paced game.....BOL

Jack Ryan

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 1589

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 6:12 PM ET #59

Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

$$$$ Golden State Warriors -7

Golden State has another road game against an above .500 team. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 including a straight up loss/blowout against Portland. Your normal bettor would think this is a recipe for disaster. Not me. Atlanta hasn't won since the break, dropping two straight at home (last game was a double OT loss). I saw this team get manhandled by Phoenix less than a month ago. On the other end Golden State looked as good as ever last game against the Clippers. Although they didn't cover after a crazy streak by the Clippers they dominated that entire game. The loss to Portland relit their fire and then allowing the Clippers to come back is like pouring gasoline on the fire. They will tighten up here on defense and really put it on the Hawks. The Hawks are a completely fake/fluke of an above .500 team and GS is exactly what you see, the best team in the NBA. Golden State by double digits tonight.

$$$$ Golden Steph Warriors -7

Tailing this one big time!! I smell a blowout!!!

Jack Ryan

easyskanker420

Prospect

Joined: May, 2014

Posts: 48

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 6:20 PM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

I need to trust my gut more.

Nice read, BK. Careful, could be gas.......

Redbandit

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2016

Posts: 2449

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 6:34 PM ET #61

Tried to post earlier in the day . The line is moving around in a narrow range for the Miami v Virginia game . Playing the under 128 1/2 in my book as my $$$$ play for the day. Virginia is has been on a tear despite the miracle that duke pulled off against them . Looking for the game to come in at 122.. Am 1-1 for my $$$$ plays. Lost a game I should have won , and won I should have lost. Virginia has all their players. I remember the days when the Virginia over and under was 110. Virginia can take the acc this year with their brilliant defense.

Good luck to all . Bandit

MercyRules

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 918

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 6:35 PM ET #62

1-1 $$$$

Going with Sienna -1 . love how they play at home. off 2 road games and winning both including beating Iona by 3. even though turning the ball over a ton. they won the battle in the rebounding dept. now they are home where they are tough as nails only losing to monmouth. it will be too much emotion for iona to go on the road and win against another tough team at it's home.iona reall hasn't beaten anybody on the road except for there hated rivals monmouth. just see the home team prevailing with sharper man to man limiting the 3's, less turnovers, and the energy from the home cooking in a very important game.

SIENNA -1 $$$$$

Jordan032503

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 5105

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 7:41 PM ET #63

I love the idea of this thread. Let make $$$ together.! Thank you USC_Holmey

Roadrunner069

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2016

Posts: 62

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 8:00 PM ET #64

Siena Down 21 at the half, may be worth a 2nd half bet...waiting for the line

Roadrunner069

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2016

Posts: 62

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 8:02 PM ET #65

I will take a shot Siena -5 2nd half....BOL

Dr2Half

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 28

Posted: Feb. 22, 2016 - 8:16 PM ET #66

Cleveland -9 2H

The Cavs turned it over 12 times in the 1H when they average only 12.7 per game. This allowed Detroit to take 9 more shots and 8 more FT's than Cleveland in the 1H. The Pistons only turned it over 4 times. Look for the reverse in the 2H and a Cavs win.