Friday NCAAB.....I play what I like

I'll buy early n hoping to catch the better line as tomorrow till Sunday, I'll be in Reno.  Reno next weekend for the Superbowl too. 

I probably Hunt for some 2h plays in Reno.  Wait for favorite team to lose big in the 1h n take them for the 2h.  Seems like that strategy is working for me today as I went 3-0 for the 2h.  

Mon 3-0

Tues 6-3

Weds 3-2

Thurs 6-3

Harvard Crimson (10-9, 3-2 Ivy League) at Brown Bears (7-11, 1-4 Ivy League)

Harvard is 2nd in their conference vs the dead last team.  

Harvard -2.5 is so cheap not to buy

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Michigan Wolverines (19-1, 9-1 Big Ten) at Michigan State Spartans (19-2, 9-1 Big Ten)

This is the game of the day here.  Both records are stellar but only one can win.  I'll take my chance on the better ranking team as Michigan average 6 more points than Spartan point averages per game.

Mich -1.5

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Wright State Raiders (13-8, 8-2 Horizon League) at Milwaukee Panthers (9-13, 5-6 Horizon League)

Better conference record and line movement favoring wright state plus small spread 

Wright st -3.5

Once again. If any of my teams lose the 1h, I'm taking them for the 2h.  

Friday 

Harvard -2.5

Mich -1.5

Wright st -3.5

Adding wright st -2.5 again

Adding wright st -1.5 1h

I'll buy more wright st in Reno later today. 

My book sold me an inflated pricing for wright st at -3.5.  it then dropped down to -2.5.  This is not a reverse line movement as it opens at -1.5.  I bought bad line but Im adding another unit at -2.5

Loving this play the best.  Wright st last 5 games, they be scoring lights out, averaging 85 points a game.  This Milwaukee team has no offense.  Small spread is value buying to me.  I'm not playing anything else n may add 2h if Harvard or Michigan loses in the 1h. 

What I learned yesterday is this.  Reverse line movement is a sham.  I had my eyes on liberty because it has what I'm looking for but the rlm scared me from playing it and liberty unalived the other team.  Well surprises me when both of my games were rlm n they both won.   

@nfl_brosuf

 Why did you believe in reverse line movement to start with?

From experience:

Many books, on "low radar" games, cant get equal action. Arizonia versu Duke, lots of action, that they can minupulate, with 1/2 point increases.

Liberty vs MTSU, they can do anything to generate opposite cash flow.

So, they play the physiological game of "hard" 1 pts drops, not so much to get MTSU money ( no one was on MTSU last night) but to scare off any more money on Liberty. The book didn't let the run on Liberty money continue, because everyone would have saw that and jumped aboard.

Book making is truly an artform, and extremely complex. 

Rlm is a fallacy.  Those who swear by it n those who pretend that it's even a factor when you cap games. 

There is a reason why they called it rlm.  Maybe you are right.  It's there to stop the flow of money because the books messed up with the opening lines.  I'll let that soak in my head for a min.  Thanks for sharing your insight. 

Wolverines 

BOL on today's plays nfl  

anyone know if rlm works well in football.... years ago i used to tail a guy who would pick the best rlm game each week and did well? not sure but it was likely nfl game of the week he chose best rlm situation