FRIDAY HARDCOURT

Today's CBB Action

Dayton +10.5 

I’m on Dayton and it’s mostly a respect/play-the-number spot for me. This feels like a market that’s pricing in home court and recent form a little too aggressively, when Dayton’s profile is way more competitive than this spread suggests. Flyers don’t need to win — they just need to stay organized, rebound, and avoid the long scoring droughts, which they’ve generally done well against physical A-10 teams. Saint Louis can look great in spurts, but they’re not exactly a team I’m excited to lay double digits with, especially if the pace slows and this turns into a half-court grind. At +10.5, I’m comfortable riding out some ugly stretches and letting the number do the work — this feels closer to a 6–8 point game than a blowout

Canisius +10.5

I’m grabbing Canisius +10.5 at Marist and it’s more of a grind-it-out angle than anything fancy. This is a big number for a game that projects to be slower and more physical than people want to admit. Canisius isn’t good, but they’re stubborn — they’ll burn clock, defend in the half court, and force you to actually execute to create separation. Marist can win this game cleanly and still never sniff margin if their shots aren’t falling at a high clip. Getting double digits in a matchup that can easily turn into long, empty possessions on both sides is exactly the type of spot I’m willing to back, even if it’s not pretty.

Michigan - Michigan St o147.5

I think the number is a touch light for how this game can actually play out. Both teams are built to score in waves, and neither offense is one-dimensional or easy to completely take away. Michigan wants to push pace with its guards and spacing, while Michigan State will run when opportunities are there instead of forcing a slow, scripted game. The rivalry narrative always points to defense, but that’s not always how the possessions stack up over 40 minutes. If this stays close into the final stretch, free throws and quick scores can turn a solid offensive game into one that clears the total.

Clev St - GB u152.5

This feels like a tempo and efficiency story more than a shootout. Both teams grind more than people think — they’re mindful on offense and willing to slow things down to find quality looks, not just hoist early threes. Cleveland State in particular can clamp up on defense when they get set, and Green Bay has shown it’s not going to run every time it touches the ball if shots aren’t falling. There’s also just a bit of “measured offense” in this spot — mid-majors in similar matchups tend to grind possessions and value each trip, which inherently limits scoring volume. At 152.5, you don’t need a shutdown defensive masterpiece — just consistent, half-court execution and a few missed shots here and there to keep this total on the right side.

2-2 juiced...see you guys tomorrow