These team’s last 3 matchups have all gone under, including a total of 111 in their lone matchup last year. TCU has been running more in conference play, but has not had a tempo/defensive matchup remotely close to Houston. Houston’s D is top 10, Adj tempo 348/365, and defensive possession 342/365 and is going to greatly limit TCU in transition and their overall tempo.TCU has only faced one opponent under a 65 Adj Tempo (Houston is 63.3) - North Texas, and that game totaled 120.
I have one other game I am looking at and will post separately if I play it.
Embrace the Grind
4
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
41-25
+11.6 Units
Houston / TCU - UNDER 138.5 (-120) 1.2 Units
These team’s last 3 matchups have all gone under, including a total of 111 in their lone matchup last year. TCU has been running more in conference play, but has not had a tempo/defensive matchup remotely close to Houston. Houston’s D is top 10, Adj tempo 348/365, and defensive possession 342/365 and is going to greatly limit TCU in transition and their overall tempo.TCU has only faced one opponent under a 65 Adj Tempo (Houston is 63.3) - North Texas, and that game totaled 120.
I have one other game I am looking at and will post separately if I play it.
Ready to lock in my 2nd play sooner than I thought. Bovada currently offering a much better line than Hard Rock. This one could be bet up further slightly but I have the total in the low-mid 120’s.
Louisiana Tech / UTEP - UNDER 130 (-120) 1.2 Units
UTEP Adj Tempo of 64.5 (316/365) vs LA Tech 62.8 (358/365). These teams did play earlier this year, which went Over, with LA Tech having their best day from 3 Pt range of the season. UTEP coming off a similar matchup vs Missouri State (Under - 119 points). LA Tech had a similar matchup last week vs Jax State (Under - 124 points). As A Dog, LA Tech is 8-2 to the Under and on the road, the Under is 7-1
Embrace the Grind
2
Ready to lock in my 2nd play sooner than I thought. Bovada currently offering a much better line than Hard Rock. This one could be bet up further slightly but I have the total in the low-mid 120’s.
Louisiana Tech / UTEP - UNDER 130 (-120) 1.2 Units
UTEP Adj Tempo of 64.5 (316/365) vs LA Tech 62.8 (358/365). These teams did play earlier this year, which went Over, with LA Tech having their best day from 3 Pt range of the season. UTEP coming off a similar matchup vs Missouri State (Under - 119 points). LA Tech had a similar matchup last week vs Jax State (Under - 124 points). As A Dog, LA Tech is 8-2 to the Under and on the road, the Under is 7-1
Analysis: California Golden Bears - Florida State Seminoles (Wednesday, Jan 28) The Stakes:A non-conference clash with contrasting trajectories. The California Golden Bears (15-5, 3-4 ACC) are finding their stride in ACC play, coming off a huge road win at Stanford to snap a five-game skid in the rivalry. They are a potent offensive team looking to build momentum. The Florida State Seminoles (8-12, 1-6 ACC) are struggling mightily, having lost 9 of their last 12. Their lone ACC win was a scrappy road victory at Miami, but defensive consistency is a major issue. This game presents a classic "offense vs. defense" matchup, but the "defense" in question is one of the nation's worst. California Golden Bears: Biggest Strength: Elite, Efficient Offense. They are a fantastic shooting team: 45.0% FG, 36.5% 3PT, 79.2% FT. They have four players averaging 12+ PPG, led by Dai Dai Ames (17.1 PPG, 42.4% 3PT). They move the ball well (14.3 APG) and can score in bunches from inside and out. Fatal Flaw: Atrocious Defense. Ranked 339th in scoring defense, they offer little resistance. They are especially vulnerable on the perimeter (331st in 3PT% defense). They don't force many turnovers (6.3 SPG) and allow opponents to shoot a high percentage. Identity: A high-flying, skilled offensive team that wins shootouts. They are comfortable in high-scoring games because they trust their offense to outscore opponents. Defense is an afterthought. Florida State Seminoles: Identity: A long, athletic team built on Leonard Hamilton's traditional style—fast pace, pressure, and depth. This season, the defense hasn't held up, making them a team that often gets into shootouts they can't win. Game Flow & X-Factors The Pace War: Florida State will want to run at every opportunity. California, with its efficient half-court offense, will happily take open shots in transition or against a scrambled defense. This game will have a very high number of possessions. California's Shooting vs. FSU's Closeouts: Cal has four shooters (Ames, Camden, Bell, Pippen) hitting over 33% from three. FSU's defense, which can be scrambling, will be tested to close out on shooters. If Cal gets hot from deep, they can score 85+ alone. Home Court Desperation: Florida State is at home and desperately needs a win to salvage season morale. This could lead to a high-energy, frenetic game, or pressing too hard and making mistakes. Both scenarios favor a high score. You'll find the full analysis and many other interesting things on my website: victorypicks.eu and ... great bonus for today: a free NCAAB lock for anyone interested. Here's all you gotta do: 1. Just send me a message [ contact@victorypicks.eu ] 2. Please type "FIX" in the subject line of your message. *Heads up, some email services automatically filter my messages into the spam folder, so I recommend checking there.
yo mods, why are you letting these touts in here?
1
Quote Originally Posted by Jornell:
Analysis: California Golden Bears - Florida State Seminoles (Wednesday, Jan 28) The Stakes:A non-conference clash with contrasting trajectories. The California Golden Bears (15-5, 3-4 ACC) are finding their stride in ACC play, coming off a huge road win at Stanford to snap a five-game skid in the rivalry. They are a potent offensive team looking to build momentum. The Florida State Seminoles (8-12, 1-6 ACC) are struggling mightily, having lost 9 of their last 12. Their lone ACC win was a scrappy road victory at Miami, but defensive consistency is a major issue. This game presents a classic "offense vs. defense" matchup, but the "defense" in question is one of the nation's worst. California Golden Bears: Biggest Strength: Elite, Efficient Offense. They are a fantastic shooting team: 45.0% FG, 36.5% 3PT, 79.2% FT. They have four players averaging 12+ PPG, led by Dai Dai Ames (17.1 PPG, 42.4% 3PT). They move the ball well (14.3 APG) and can score in bunches from inside and out. Fatal Flaw: Atrocious Defense. Ranked 339th in scoring defense, they offer little resistance. They are especially vulnerable on the perimeter (331st in 3PT% defense). They don't force many turnovers (6.3 SPG) and allow opponents to shoot a high percentage. Identity: A high-flying, skilled offensive team that wins shootouts. They are comfortable in high-scoring games because they trust their offense to outscore opponents. Defense is an afterthought. Florida State Seminoles: Identity: A long, athletic team built on Leonard Hamilton's traditional style—fast pace, pressure, and depth. This season, the defense hasn't held up, making them a team that often gets into shootouts they can't win. Game Flow & X-Factors The Pace War: Florida State will want to run at every opportunity. California, with its efficient half-court offense, will happily take open shots in transition or against a scrambled defense. This game will have a very high number of possessions. California's Shooting vs. FSU's Closeouts: Cal has four shooters (Ames, Camden, Bell, Pippen) hitting over 33% from three. FSU's defense, which can be scrambling, will be tested to close out on shooters. If Cal gets hot from deep, they can score 85+ alone. Home Court Desperation: Florida State is at home and desperately needs a win to salvage season morale. This could lead to a high-energy, frenetic game, or pressing too hard and making mistakes. Both scenarios favor a high score. You'll find the full analysis and many other interesting things on my website: victorypicks.eu and ... great bonus for today: a free NCAAB lock for anyone interested. Here's all you gotta do: 1. Just send me a message [ contact@victorypicks.eu ] 2. Please type "FIX" in the subject line of your message. *Heads up, some email services automatically filter my messages into the spam folder, so I recommend checking there.
Hey man, appreciate your input and see that you have a good read on over/unders. Just wondering....if you ever get an inclining on a side would you share it in a post? Or just stick to your bread and butter, so to speak. Thanks.
good luck.
0
@Floridaman
Hey man, appreciate your input and see that you have a good read on over/unders. Just wondering....if you ever get an inclining on a side would you share it in a post? Or just stick to your bread and butter, so to speak. Thanks.
Definitely. I do make occasional plays on sides (smaller wagers than my posted plays on totals) but haven’t been posting them this season. I will probably begin posting and playing larger units on them around conference tourney time.
Embrace the Grind
0
@Parlay_pal
Definitely. I do make occasional plays on sides (smaller wagers than my posted plays on totals) but haven’t been posting them this season. I will probably begin posting and playing larger units on them around conference tourney time.
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