Seton Hall -1 PYODSeton Hall is on fire right now and are a top 25 team with a 15-2 record. They face a scrappy 9-8 USF team. They average a full 12 points more per game than USF. The Bulls, however, have a top 20 defense and only allow 58 points per game. If Seton Hall can keep the pace uptempo, then the Bulls won't be able to keep up offensively. It will likely be difficult for USF to keep the pace to their liking as Seton Hall is coming off it's best offensive game of the season, scoring 84 points against Depaul. They are also riding a 4 game win streak since their beatdown at Syracuse. USF has lost 3 of 5. Seton Hall leads USF in most major statistical categories, with one of the exceptions being points per game allowed. However, what seems to be lost on people is that Seton Hall also plays solid defense, allowing people to under 63 points per game.
Valparaiso -5Luckily, I grabbed this line early enough to get it at 5 as it has since gone to 6. The reason I picked them is simple: since they have been playing each other consistently (2008), Valparaiso is a perfect 9-0 against Youngstown State. They are also at home. If it loses, then so be it. I'm going to bet the trend while it exists.
Creighton -2.5They are scoring an unbelievable 82 points per game and lead Illinois State in almost every category except points allowed per game (61 to Creighton's 69). The Bluejays are winners of 4 straight, while Illinois State is a mediocre 2-2 during that stretch. Creighton has won the last 3 meetings. While this figures to be a close game, I just feel that Creighton's offensive firepower is too much for Illinois State. In many ways, this game is similar to the Seton Hall/USF matchup.
Heat -3.5They are coming off back to back overtime road losses. They are going to bring their A-game, they will push the ball on the break, and I expect them to play the shutdown defense they are capable of playing. Miami really should have beaten the Clippers the last game, but they were awful from the free throw line. I don't see that happening again tonight. Denver can score the ball really well, but Miami has the athletes to defend. If you look at Denvers last 3 games, they lost in a shootout to the Spurs, got beat at home to an offensively challenged Hornets team, and then allowed 115 points at home to the lousy Nets. As shown by the Hornets loss, when you can defend them and force missed shots, it gets ugly fast. Also, shown by the Spurs and Nets games, they love to score but have lately forgotten that defense is necessary too (which Miami should be able to take advantage of).
Bulls -2The Bulls are 10-2 to start the year and the Celtics are 4-5. Chicago has won 3 straight, while the Celtics have dropped 2 straight at home. The Bulls can score better than Boston, and defend better as well. Paul Pierce is still working his way back into shape and looks like a completely different player out there. Rondo seems to be playing at a speed of his own that other Celtics can't emulate. The Bulls play good enough defense to keep Boston from going on any kind of big run. Rondo is a great off-ball defender, and many of his steals come from him leaving his man and poking at the ball. He won't be able to do that with Derrick Rose, essentially negating a big part of Rondo's game. It's tough to pick Boston to lose 3 straight, but I just feel they can not handle the Bulls right now.
Suns -2 1st QuarterPicking the Suns in the 1st quarter is a bet that lost for me yesterday, but I am going to try again tonight. Even yesterday, Phoenix came out shooting hot; unfortunately, the Cavs were on fire from 3. Tonight, the Suns, who play well at home, get to face a Nets team who has been known for their slow starts this season. The Nets are just 2-9 in the 1st quarter this season.
That's it for today's picks. Feel free to fade away as my luck is likely to turn at some point, and what better time for that to happen than Friday the 13th.
BOL to everyone.
so all the luck is sure to run out, right? Let's test it!
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