Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

@Coben

 Got my wires crossed, on the under 66.....

Would be really nice if we knew the mathematical formula of how these games are being determined....since you've already gone pro and all and are not headed down that path again...

I already hit the over on how many times tunica would be mentioned in this thread

KAT played half of the game, had 16, 6.  Glad he played a little bit.  

The game got out of hand or maybe he would have played more, he played enough, Fallcon won. With or without KAT.   

Great job falcon.  Can’t wait for tomorrow.  

Since Kawhi isn’t playing as of 1-2 hours ago I’ll play a dog for 1/4 unit so I can lose very little, enjoy the game, and save my $ for your next play tomorrow my good man :) .     

As always, thanks!  

@MITM

 No reason at all for me to doubt it and I’m sure others also think that way.

Thanks again for the selections 

cheers 

@ABooksNightmare

 You better get it out of me by midnight Sunday night. 

After that, ill be on break from Covers.

Falcon Sports 

It's a legitimate question....the rest is up to you, but I'm sure many here would like to know....

I've been watching this thread but its useless without pictures...there's no doubt that you could probably hit that percentage...pretty easy to see that....knowledge is power my friend....teach everyone to drink in here instead of just leading them there....

And this is by no way shape or form a knock against you but rather a praise because you don't have to be doing any of this but you are...

there are some mathematical geniuses in these forums, but don't tell anyone I said that so let's see who can flex their pivot table the best...

Either way...solid work in a workman like approach....

Nicely done, yet again!  Sleep well everyone!

@ABooksNightmare

 It be silly for him to give it up, but I concur, it would be nice! :)

@MITM

"Another reason its impossible is that no one can hit (60%) Winners over 1000 plays against a (-110) line. Thsts impossible to do."

for most definitely.

imagine if someone knew the math as well as you, but also knew the sports? Not as a fan, but as a investor.

you sell yourself short. You can certainly hit over 60%.

at 44-26 you are at 62.85%

imagine, if knowing the sport had changed 2 of your bets? 65.71%.

You have 3 skills that almost all bettors don't:

You understand DATA/MATH, and how to apply it

You understand MONEY MANAGEMENT.

Discipline.

That being said, you can certainly hit over 60% on 1K. I know 2 people who do. both over 3K plays

Good Luck.

@TJZags598

 Thanks for your compliments 

I do Understand math

I am very disciplined but thats come with being in this business for almost 38yrs now.

I have a great Mathematical Formula for setting totals. 

But I disagree that somebody can hit 60% Winners over 1000 plays against a (-110) line.

U mentioned that u know 2 but ill bet their sample size isn't 1000 plays or your data is inaccurate on them.

Because if they can do that, simply play The Grand Challenge format and be rich beyond your wildest dreams and banned at almost every book.

Honestly I believe that if I played all the selections that my formula selected, I'd win at a 55% rate. The problem is the variance and the wild swings and my bet amounts would be much smaller. My workload would also be quadrupled and I'm just not into putting that much time and effort into this. This is now just a fun hobby for me. Thankfully I'm not chasing the dollar any longer. I certainly want to win but its much less stressful now.

I'll be continuing on with The Grand Challenge in January but not on Covers. I'm moving in a different direction for January. I'm making other commitments and need to honor those. My group will be small as I don't do crazy. 

Again thanks for the compliments and ill see how it plays out. 

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 I follow your posts, not so much for the plays, but for your ideology, the stories, the perspective. 

You are a gift for most here, the knowledge and experience alone; everyone should follow your ideology.

But, you are also on to things that most gamblers aren't. 

I wish you luck, and i hope you always pop in here, and update us on how things are going. I for one, will miss the ideology alot more than the picks.

Way too much work for one person, without doubt. Unless things are very automated

As for my data being wrong, i have an MBA in data analytics. Modeling is my forte.

The best thing that ever happened to sports gambling, is they legalized it. Easier to fall under radar.

Thanks for always sharing more than just the pick.

@MITM

 and MATH is the answer to all questions

Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

Starting Bankroll ($1000)

Current Bankroll ($2976.82)

Record (44-26)

(62.86%) Winners 

Play #71

Dallas Over 230.5 (-110) NBA 

$297.68 to win $270.50

And pray Luca is playing.

Falcon Sports 

Sounds like FALCON is going to cover his window into his line experiment using his math.....it was fun and a learning experience for sure.

If I were him and his group, I would provide the formula and let people use it then, I would then fade against those moves of lines in the last hour if the number strayed too far. Let the public move the line too far by supplying the formula and all you would have to do is bet on the numbers that you have as they change! (although he seems to have an access issue to getting his bets down, unlike me with 2 offshore betting accounts including BET365 which has insane worldwide access to anything/handles massive online numbers, and a Horseplayer account that I can bet multiple tracks around the world!)

In other words, it would still be about SELECTION process from your options and line changes from the numbers you cracked using the formula, just not grabbing EVERY SELECTION that was far from your number, since line moves would make it better to wait and study before acting.

The whole point, I have gathered for him/his group is, getting a play in that not everyone is rushing into which is why he is picking against BIASES in most instances to get the -110 to +100 line and getting the best return with the options they find using his math formula!

If so, then I say it still becomes up to the public bettor to even STILL LOOK AT ANALYTICS and other angles to determine is the line has moved too far if you want to get an even better result from any tout or his math plays. BE SELECTIVE, in other words. Which is why there are games like ROCK/PAPER/SCISSORS that you can win in with strategy..... put the selection of decision in your favor which he has thankfully provided for us to utilize, but its not necessary to play each time like you would in rock, paper/scissors tourney or a chess match. Chess works off of other peoples moves! And your move (or Falcon's move) can set up a move in your favor, or in his case, his favor.

Its why I did not buy into any kool aid of drinking EVERY PLAY because, I knew that I increased my chances of hitting a bad streak for my DOUBLE UP or SELECTIVITY system that taps further analytics that I compile. The fact that FALCON can hit consistently over 50% of his plays posted here means that I see a lot of risk being taking out in my opinion, to hitting a < 50% success rate which is what most sports bettors and horse handicappers are at!

Putting in the work + using a trusted source of system like Falcon's is the way to go.... but SELECTIVITY and probability math do not get skewed if you do so and I can vouch for that on so many instances. Its WHEN I play too many plays or all, that I actually begin to make mistakes because I WANT THE THRILL rather than treating the money making as a 'business venture' to use or enjoy the successes from the process 

Damn shame Falcon is going to stop....but I think he knows his many OVER SELECTIONS against the bias can work with his math, and the demonstration here in the Grand Challenge supports to us and him using live validation + time has given him what he needs. I think I know how to best apply his selections now and can have better success going forward so I thank him for his consistent > 50% selection rate displayed here.

I agree with some who have come in here to use this as a SELECTIVITY option rather than playing EVERY PLAY.

I latched onto this thread hoping to find something refreshing and think FALCON has provided that. Hoping he continues, but if not, its been fun to test some ideas off of his play selections to confirm some tendencies.  

I'm 100% not going to be an every day poster. There are many reasons for that.

When u run a thread like this,,,,, it becomes an obligation, a job almost. 

I've got other things to do in January 

1. I built me a small home gym. For the first time in many years, I want to work out again. That has nothing to do with sports but I want to devote time to it.

But there are several other reasons also.

I would like to pop in occasionally but that may not be a possibility.

Falcon Sports 

I think you are limiting what is out there to get around this FALCON..... why do you have to drive around to all of these books ? Yes I know you largish bet could trigger a change in price after for the next location but why not bet a $1000 or $5000 at one location? I don't get why you have to go to so many? You said >> "Because if they can do that, simply play The Grand Challenge format and be rich beyond your wildest dreams and banned at almost every book." ....in reference to someone having the ability to hit over 60%.

I did it over about 60 plays in the NCAAF season and was betting between $200 - $1000 each week...sometimes a little more, and using an online site and no, I did not trigger line shifts afterward, My friend switched to my betting site because he bets double and sometimes triple me in a week, and has no issue betting online.

And if they are not taking your bet of that amount, get an online account, unless this is all about avoiding taxes or other .....but not sure how it works in the U.S.. In Canada, we do not have to pay taxes on winnings.

I am super curious as to the whole story of having difficulty getting bets down and find it strange in the 21st century when ALL GENERATIONS are betting now greater than ever. 

@Last2thirst

 I'm not driving around anywhere 

I go to Tunica a couple times per month. 

I have quite a bit of money at Draftkings, Fanduel, BETMGM and Caesars. I trust these books much more than the old offshore days. I also have 2 locals. One of these is a business partner of mine. 

So I have several outs. 

I have always worked with a small group, I've not hid that. I have obligations to these people. I don't want the plays on a public forum. Several reasons for that also. 

I can't say alot because I want to respect the rules at Covers.

Falcon Sports 

Pending play is off the board at Draftkings 

Is Luca announced out?

Falcon Sports 

Game is off the board

Back up 

Back up at 231

Maybe Donavan Mitchell is playing tonight.

Falcon Sports 

Trust?

You are online accounts that are based in other cities too since you live in Tennessee. Its no different once you get familiar with any international or other national account after years of using them. 

My comment is based on AFFECTING THE LINES with your bets and since you are not betting 10's of thousands on each, with the ones mentioned above, I honestly don't see how you would move the lines that much and, anonymity would be protected I would think although, an AI type program would gauge certain accounts that are successful and therefore, are influencers I am sure. 

You betting the amounts you bet are not going to rattle these companies, and you use them as well, as you mentioned:

The biggest sports betting companies
Data source: Fool.com
SPORTS BETTING COMPANY MARKET CAP (AS OF AUG. 16, 2023)

Flutter Entertainment (LSE:FLTR; OTC:PDYPF; OTC:PDYP.Y) $31 billion (converted from British Pounds)
MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) $15.4 billion
DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) $12.77 billion
Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) $11.54 billion
Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) $10.82 billion
Bet365 $3.6 billion (converted from British Pounds). (Revenue is for the financial year ending March 27, 2022).
Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ:PENN) $3.54 billion

But like you said, if its just fun, then sprinkling money into trusted online sites would be the best way to go I suppose.....and FAST to use.

Was 237 your projected total falcon?

237.2 to be precise is what I see