Louisville @ Duke — UNDER 157.5 This number feels like it’s chasing upside instead of respecting how this matchup actually plays. Louisville hasn’t shown they can sustain efficient offense against length, and Duke has no issue turning games into controlled, half-court possessions once they’re in front. At 157.5, I’m comfortable betting the market is a step ahead of reality here.
Penn State @ Ohio State — UNDER 154.5 Mid-150s is ambitious for a Big Ten game where both teams naturally bleed clock. These are set-heavy offenses that rarely generate quick, clean looks in transition. Unless this turns into a shooting outlier, the math favors patience and an under.
Got my eye on one more for tonight....
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
294-239 +42.60
Louisville @ Duke — UNDER 157.5 This number feels like it’s chasing upside instead of respecting how this matchup actually plays. Louisville hasn’t shown they can sustain efficient offense against length, and Duke has no issue turning games into controlled, half-court possessions once they’re in front. At 157.5, I’m comfortable betting the market is a step ahead of reality here.
Penn State @ Ohio State — UNDER 154.5 Mid-150s is ambitious for a Big Ten game where both teams naturally bleed clock. These are set-heavy offenses that rarely generate quick, clean looks in transition. Unless this turns into a shooting outlier, the math favors patience and an under.
This total has been steamed almost five points from the opener, and at this point you’re betting number more than news. The early move made sense, but once you’re living in the high-160s with juice flipping, it feels like momentum more than conviction. On the floor, Arizona is much more comfortable sitting down defensively, switching on the perimeter, and forcing teams into longer possessions rather than running end-to-end for 40 minutes. BYU plays fast, but a lot of that pace comes from volume threes and secondary breaks, not guaranteed efficiency. At 167.5, I’ll trust Arizona’s ability to disrupt rhythm and take the inflated number.
RIDE or COLLIDE
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Final Play of the night
Arizona @ BYU — UNDER 167.5
This total has been steamed almost five points from the opener, and at this point you’re betting number more than news. The early move made sense, but once you’re living in the high-160s with juice flipping, it feels like momentum more than conviction. On the floor, Arizona is much more comfortable sitting down defensively, switching on the perimeter, and forcing teams into longer possessions rather than running end-to-end for 40 minutes. BYU plays fast, but a lot of that pace comes from volume threes and secondary breaks, not guaranteed efficiency. At 167.5, I’ll trust Arizona’s ability to disrupt rhythm and take the inflated number.
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