Bags Monday LARGE **Duke vs Miami**

11-1 Last 12 Large Plays ATS 

Monday’s Play:

Duke +2.5 (LARGE)

On the surface, Miami seems like the better ball club…especially @ home!

Rewatched some clips of  the last game & looked over some stats, and I like Duke covering or winning SU.

Why? Defense & length. Defensively Duke’s defense is top 30 p/ KP…confirmed and they rotate to help, big wide stance, slide their feet. Going to be tough for Miami to score in the paint w/  Duke ‘s length + defensive fundamentals. 

Risk on why Duke won’t cover?

Rebounding. Miami gets out rebounded a ton since they’re smaller. But, they’ve out-rebounded their opponents 3 of their L4. Duke in that first  Miami game got about 12-15 points just on offensive boards 

Can Duke makeup for the 12-15 second chance points? If and only if Roach plays well. Duke plays much better w/ Roach. He’s first game back from the injury was in the 1st Miami game. Should be much healthier in this game? 

Why Duke will cover…

Miami’s defense isn’t bad, but isn’t good either. #115…they’re a team that focus more of their efforts on the offensive end. They shoot a  ton of 3s (deadly), but I think Duke’s fundamentally ready on what to expect from Miami….guards play up and don’t allow open 3s. Simple, but Duke is real young, so acknowledging it and execution is 2 different thing when you’re 18-19 y/o. I think Duke has gotten much better as team, and should show again tonight. 

FYI - Both coaches are pretty even…Schyer relies heavily on players and assistants to manage the game. On the other hand, Larannaga seems chill, and doesn’t pay a whole lot of attention to detail. Leaning more on Duke’s Assistants than Miami’s coaching staff to get them through this game. 

Fill em’ 

To be honest, I think Duke should be -1 in this game. 

BOL! Great job you’ve been doing. Cheers

Love it! BOL Bags! 

Great run LB 

This is the largest Duke has been an underdog this year. Big variance in home/road split as they were -6.5 at home and now +3.

I realize there was steam on the VT game but that was mostly a PK until right before tip. 

Yikes, hate it that you and wolf are on opposite sides 

might have to just juiced out 

Good luck Bags.  

Quit drinking the kool aid dirtbag. Duke blew their wad and won their national championship against UNC. Tonight will be a reality check. Miami is a better team and will win. 

I like it.  If Lively has turned the corned like it looked against Carolina, Duke's a different team.  

 LB

Miami is 12-0 at home and only lost by 2 @ Duke

I agree Buff Miami will get the job done 

@buffer

Dirt 

Amazing run 

I with you with Duke. Seems a lot of picks on Miami. Yesterday I was so sick of seeing everyone on Ohio State I had to go with Michigan. Sometimes it works. 

@sharper28

 You sound like such a soft individual I can just see your pain through the screen.

hope you dont blow your 50 dollar win all in one place. 

Spot set on the money...Gonna be tight for either team to cover it. You'll earn this bet if it wins. Ha!

RT2

Why even bet this game guys ??

there has to be better options out there tonight 

I like Duke moving forward. I think they really found something with Lively. I hate this spot for Duke tonight. GL

Great write up LB.  

did you just compare scheyer to a 700+ win coach shame on you

Niggardly > Is that a word. I grew up below the tracks and never ever heard that word let alone in any form of trash talking. 

@sharper28

 you should buy a bullet and rent a gun.

LOL