Dec 08, 2016 04:11 PM Spread $550.00 $523.81
Basketball - 519 Iowa State -6½ -105 for Game (betonline)
CBB Iowa State -6-120 (B+0.5 ) $480.00 $400.00 (betdsi)
spreading out my action across the 4 books...local 1 and 2 have different limits and lines compared to offshore...i could go more but i'll risk half of what i am up on the season approx....that's a total of 4330 risked to win 3923 on the 1 play
Iowa st is kenpom ranked #23...off eff 31 and def eff 19....with a + 19 eff rating over opponents
iowa is kenpom ranked #86... off eff 43 and def eff 179...with a +6.5 eff rating over opponents.
that's a 13 pt difference on neutral court and give iowa 5-6 for home court and there is your spread....
HOWEVER
iowa is 4-5, with all 5 losses coming by 8+ points...here's the thing though:
iowa has played a joke of a schedule...
they lost to omaha (kenpom #157)...worse than iowa st
they lost to seton hall (#45).....worse than iowa st
they lost to memphis(#93).......worse than iowa st
they were destroyed by UVA(#6).....better than iowa st
they got crushed by ND (#25) who i comprable to iowa st (iowa st actually higher ranked in kenpom).....worse than iowa st
so, everyone whom is ranked better than themselves (iowa), they've been beaten by and these games haven't even been as close as the score indicates coming down the stretch...iowa keeps it close in a half but doesnt have the depth or go-to guy (jok is all they have but has too much on his shoulders) to keep it close throughout 40 minutes, imo...
more importantly, whom have they beaten:
kennesaw st #316
savannah st #345
UT Rio grande #328
and
stetson #286
yes, yes, yes, you read that right....they havent beaten a team rated better than kenpom #286...and stetson had the best off eff at 240 and def eff at 301 that they have faced....so these 4 wins are a f'in joke, shouldn't even count
bottom line....iowa's defense is hot garbage and yes, they can put up points BUT iowa st's def eff rating is much improved this year, over years past...and iowa st has played much more difficult competition, and could be undefeated, barely losing to gonzaga (#13) and cincy (#21)....
yes, this is a rivalry game...yes, it is at iowa....yes, it is ISU's first real road game....BUT in my opinion Iowa just doesn't have the legs/personnel/talent/depth to compete with ISU this year....I see a competitive, fast game to start but ISU really pulling it away and winning comfortably...
good luck whatever you play and decide...tail or fade, i don't give a rip...
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