Posted:
#1
November
12-6 +5.5 units
December 13-5 +10.1 units
January 8-8 +1 unit; 2-unit plays 3-0; 3-unit plays: 1-0
Hey guys, bad day on Saturday going 2-4 (with 2 of the losses being horrific breaks) - decided to call it a day (as the leans were hitting left and right) and just focused on NFL and had a nice 2 day run. Posted plays are .500 in January (although I'm up overall this month too especially including unposted) and still haven't lost any 2 or 3-unit plays this season. Don't worry about all the haters on the forum and if any pop up in this thread - JUST IGNORE THEM - I have a game I really like today and since I have some time I thought I'd write it up and tell you why I'm on Citadel +7 (I'll add more if +7.5 on Matchbook is good juice)
I've actually had my eye on both of these teams all season (last year I won plenty on or against Citadel and their totals) and I've seen Samford in person and have tracked their number all year. This is a game that I have been waiting for and I'm pretty happy to be getting +7 in this spot. Here is why:
The Citadel is 5-13 for two main reasons: they aren't able to matchup with the athleticism of their opponents and they aren't able to match up offensively on the inside and post game. Both of these weakness are completely negated when playing Samford. Samford has practically no size and most of the time puts out a "whitewash" (aka 5 white players on the court at the same time). Stereotypes aside, putting out a whitewash (or close to it) should tell you something about the overall athleticism of Samford.
One mistake handicappers make at this point of the season is that they rely to heavily (in my opinion) on OVERALL SEASON stats. Almost every team in the country doesn't resemble the team that they were in early November. Now that the conference schedules are in full swing its much better to look at their last 4-5 games. Lets start with who these teams have played to start their conference schedule:
SAMFORD (last 4) has played: Citadel (last 5) has played:
45 Clemson
277 Eastern Michigan 136 Wofford
294 UNC Greensboro 129 Furman
222 Elon 260 Chattanooga
260 Chattanooga 98 College of Charleston
Now keep these schedules in mind when I show you the stats from their last 5 games. Not to mention that the one common opponent was a 1-pt loss at home for Citadel and was a 5-pt road loss for Samford (basically meaning that these two teams are equal)
In their last 5 games, Samford has taken 27 3's a game (NCAA average is 18) and has taken less than 13 free throws a game. Samford has gotten less than 4 offensive rebounds per game and has been outrebounded by 13+ rebounds per game. Samford has also had more turnovers than assists.
Despite not having a lot of height, Citadel is an above average rebounding team (and especially offensively). Citadel has been averaging almost 11 offensive rebounds per game and has outrebounded their opponents over the last 5 games. Citadel has also started going to the line more at almost 17 attempts (still a low amount but you must consider their schedule over their last 5 games and you could make the argument that they will be the more athletic team tonight). Citadel is only taking 13 3's per game and has gotten the ball inside and had guard penetration since the start of the conference schedule (this hasn't worked out because of their last 5 opponents but is a solid strategy against this Samford and they will need to change nothing about their offense in preparation for Samford).
The Citadel beat Samford three times last year and their starting five has 15 career starts total against this team. They are confident that Samford can be beaten and know exactly what to expect with another super-slow tempo team. On top of this fact, lets look at the Samford wins this season. Of their 8 wins against Division 1 opponents only two of them has been by over 8 points (and one of those was in overtime). Samford just doesn't play a style that blows people out. They shoot more 3's than 2's, rarely get to the line and gets no offensive rebounds and while that still might be enough to beat Citadel tonight, it very unlikely it will be by 8 or more.
There are two dangers with this bet tonight and they are the reason why this isn't my biggest play of the year. First, this is Citadel's 3rd game in 6 days and I don't like betting on teams in this spot when the other team is more well rested. Next, Citadel has defended the 3-pt line poorly this season and that is all Samford does on offense. I think we all know how unpredictable teams that shoot primarily outside jumpers and 3's are, and unless they shoot the lights completely out tonight, I think this will be a very close game at the end. The more Citadel hangs around and keeps the game close or leads early, the less I think the 3 games in 6 days will be a factor. I can see one way Samford wins in a blowout (or atleast enough to cover) and that is go crazy from 3-pt land. I can see about 4-5 ways (atleast) that Citadel can keep this game close and get us a cover (or straight up win). Like I always say in these write-ups, if we can get our money in on these situations all season, we will have a solid year. Good luck with whatever you decide, we are all in this together
Citadel +7 for 2-units on Matchbook
December 13-5 +10.1 units
January 8-8 +1 unit; 2-unit plays 3-0; 3-unit plays: 1-0
Hey guys, bad day on Saturday going 2-4 (with 2 of the losses being horrific breaks) - decided to call it a day (as the leans were hitting left and right) and just focused on NFL and had a nice 2 day run. Posted plays are .500 in January (although I'm up overall this month too especially including unposted) and still haven't lost any 2 or 3-unit plays this season. Don't worry about all the haters on the forum and if any pop up in this thread - JUST IGNORE THEM - I have a game I really like today and since I have some time I thought I'd write it up and tell you why I'm on Citadel +7 (I'll add more if +7.5 on Matchbook is good juice)
I've actually had my eye on both of these teams all season (last year I won plenty on or against Citadel and their totals) and I've seen Samford in person and have tracked their number all year. This is a game that I have been waiting for and I'm pretty happy to be getting +7 in this spot. Here is why:
The Citadel is 5-13 for two main reasons: they aren't able to matchup with the athleticism of their opponents and they aren't able to match up offensively on the inside and post game. Both of these weakness are completely negated when playing Samford. Samford has practically no size and most of the time puts out a "whitewash" (aka 5 white players on the court at the same time). Stereotypes aside, putting out a whitewash (or close to it) should tell you something about the overall athleticism of Samford.
One mistake handicappers make at this point of the season is that they rely to heavily (in my opinion) on OVERALL SEASON stats. Almost every team in the country doesn't resemble the team that they were in early November. Now that the conference schedules are in full swing its much better to look at their last 4-5 games. Lets start with who these teams have played to start their conference schedule:
SAMFORD (last 4) has played: Citadel (last 5) has played:
45 Clemson
277 Eastern Michigan 136 Wofford
294 UNC Greensboro 129 Furman
222 Elon 260 Chattanooga
260 Chattanooga 98 College of Charleston
Now keep these schedules in mind when I show you the stats from their last 5 games. Not to mention that the one common opponent was a 1-pt loss at home for Citadel and was a 5-pt road loss for Samford (basically meaning that these two teams are equal)
In their last 5 games, Samford has taken 27 3's a game (NCAA average is 18) and has taken less than 13 free throws a game. Samford has gotten less than 4 offensive rebounds per game and has been outrebounded by 13+ rebounds per game. Samford has also had more turnovers than assists.
Despite not having a lot of height, Citadel is an above average rebounding team (and especially offensively). Citadel has been averaging almost 11 offensive rebounds per game and has outrebounded their opponents over the last 5 games. Citadel has also started going to the line more at almost 17 attempts (still a low amount but you must consider their schedule over their last 5 games and you could make the argument that they will be the more athletic team tonight). Citadel is only taking 13 3's per game and has gotten the ball inside and had guard penetration since the start of the conference schedule (this hasn't worked out because of their last 5 opponents but is a solid strategy against this Samford and they will need to change nothing about their offense in preparation for Samford).
The Citadel beat Samford three times last year and their starting five has 15 career starts total against this team. They are confident that Samford can be beaten and know exactly what to expect with another super-slow tempo team. On top of this fact, lets look at the Samford wins this season. Of their 8 wins against Division 1 opponents only two of them has been by over 8 points (and one of those was in overtime). Samford just doesn't play a style that blows people out. They shoot more 3's than 2's, rarely get to the line and gets no offensive rebounds and while that still might be enough to beat Citadel tonight, it very unlikely it will be by 8 or more.
There are two dangers with this bet tonight and they are the reason why this isn't my biggest play of the year. First, this is Citadel's 3rd game in 6 days and I don't like betting on teams in this spot when the other team is more well rested. Next, Citadel has defended the 3-pt line poorly this season and that is all Samford does on offense. I think we all know how unpredictable teams that shoot primarily outside jumpers and 3's are, and unless they shoot the lights completely out tonight, I think this will be a very close game at the end. The more Citadel hangs around and keeps the game close or leads early, the less I think the 3 games in 6 days will be a factor. I can see one way Samford wins in a blowout (or atleast enough to cover) and that is go crazy from 3-pt land. I can see about 4-5 ways (atleast) that Citadel can keep this game close and get us a cover (or straight up win). Like I always say in these write-ups, if we can get our money in on these situations all season, we will have a solid year. Good luck with whatever you decide, we are all in this together
Citadel +7 for 2-units on Matchbook
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