🤢🥴_ Fubah's 2023 Hoops Thread _😲🥵

Opinion ...

A key factor in my handicapping a matchup is how each performed in games against other equally or near-equally tough opponents - giving heaviest weight to recent play as opposed to mid-February and back (I completely disregard all results prior to Christmas, anyway)

FAU: from Conference USA, which is lightly weaker overall than Mountain West
very close win @North Texas Dec 29
very close win vs. UAB Jan 5 on HOMECOURT
very close win vs. North Texas on HOMECOURT
9 pt LOSS OTR @UAB Feb 02
March 11: routed UAB on neutral floor by 22 (2 pt dog)
March 17: 1 pt win vs Memphis on neutral floor (1.5 pt dog)

March 23: close win vs Tennessee on neutral floor (5 pt dog!)
**Well played - but VOLS missing Zeigler and it showed.
March 25: close win vs KSU on neutral floor (2 pt dog)
**Dominated the glass despite massive turnovers - not won by luck!

SDSU: from Mountain West, which is slightly TOUGHER overall than CUSA
10 pt win vs Utah State on HOMECOURT
20 pt win vs Boise St. on HOMECOURT
very close win @Utah State
6 pt LOSS OTR @Boise St.
March 11: close win vs Utah State on neutral floor (-2 pt fav)
March 16: close win vs Col/Charleston on neutral floor (-5.5 fav)
March 24: BIG UPSET win vs #1 Alabama! (as +7 pt dog!!)
**Kudos to SDSU - but Bama's arc shooting was uncharacteristically bad
March 26: 1 pt win vs Creighton on neutral floor (+2.5 pt dog)

Coin flipper. This is another matchup where it realistically could go either way. Razor thin edge to SDSU but a lot will depend on FOULS and if either has a great or bad night shooting. Looking for an in-game opp only....

Hmmm....not so sure about a significant edge to SDSU here, largely because that 7'1" Russian on FAU was dominant against a tall and very good front court on the KSU Wildcats!

Mind you, looking at his other recent outings, it's possible that KSU game was a one-off for Goldin.  Hard to say.  And of course if he gets into foul troubles THEN FAU is in for a very tough challenge indeed for the mins they play without their lone big man....

It does appear as if both teams will have all available players on hand

@fubah2

 I agree. If refs call a tight game I think that would hurt the way SDST plays D.

otoh if he has another game exactly like that kansas state win   then fau is heading to the title game on monday

 just my 2 cents

As for the game TOTAL......nope....not touching it....total has dropped 2 and besides it looks like another coin-flipper anyway

That is a real possibility tonight.  Good handicapping gets tossed if the refs takeover the game.

@Zeus4par

 i dont know why i feel thats gonna happen but its a strong feeling  

Agreed.....and this suggests a "wait & see" approach for a possible in-game bet only....

From RotoWire...

UCONN Jordan Hawkins: Active in pregame shoot around

Good to go for Final Four
April 1, 2023
Hawkins (illness) is expected to start in Saturday's game against
Miami in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament, Matt Norlander
of CBSSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Hawkins' status for the Final Four seemed up in the air after
he missed practice Friday with an unspecified illness. Now,
barring any setbacks, he should be healthy enough to maintain
his starting role in the Huskies' lineup, which is significant given
his important value as a three-point shooter for the team.

Of course this then begs the question: how effective will he be??

@Triman2022

 Did you place a bet on the game?  

great action

one thing looks nearly certain now  ,  kiss the under total goodbye !

their going to combine for  at least  73  in the half 

@fubah2

 No not yet

@fubah2

 Glad I took your advice and wait for possible live bet. Was leaning to SD pregame.

LOL  they just ended the half with exactly 73  

Boxscore metrics are close to even with maybe a razor thin edge to FAU.

Great ball movement/team play....very few turnovers....fouls are not an issue

game looks like its on pace for an over   close to 145-149 pts unless ot

lots of shooting fouls means scoring during dead ball     this game is going over the total by a bunch

FAU will be shooting bonus for the last quarter of the game and they are shooting very well there!

Going way over the total and FAU is going to the final

Still anybody's game......but yeah this should hit well over 145 pts

thats the big question     we just dont know until we see him play the first half

And a HORRIBLE call on Goldin to give him his 4th......replay proves "ALL BALL" - no contact at all....Announcers agreed!

Yes.  With a 100% healthy Hawkins, unaffected by any illness, I would favor UCONN and look to grab them in-game - laying chalk if need be.....BUT as you say, we won't know this until well into the game and we can assess how effective he is.....

This is another wait & see.....possible in-game opp (looking for Yukon SledDogs)

I'm with you guys.  No way to know until we see if he is hampered in any way.  If he is then UCONN loses a lot of offense