🤢🥴_ Fubah's 2023 Hoops Thread _😲🥵

For the Miami +8.5  vs LSU -8.5  game

I figure it's too close to call on the spread and too much chalk at -500 LSU for the modest edge they have

MENS LIVE ACTION bet:   72 - 68   Longhornies -350

Sure enough....right after I post my bet, Miami scores 5 real quick to take the lead

always happens   

but i believe texas will squeak it out  in the final minute

And that's a LOSS

[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]

            WOMENS Elite 8

5 seed Louisville +5 vs. 2 seed Iowa -5 (in Seattle)

My rankings: #15 Louisville vs. #6 Iowa

9:20  ET tipoff

Louisville 14 - 7 in very tough ACC
Iowa 18 - 3 in tough but not quite as tough BigTEN

Louisville 3 - 5 in conf against teams similar to a very good Hawkeye team, PLUS 2 decisive wins against very good teams in the tournament.

Iowa was 6 - 3 in conf against teams similar to a very good Louisville team, PLUS 1 decisive win against very good Colorado in the tournament.

Iowa depends entirely on one player, the ALL-EVERYTHING & fabulous Kaitlyn "downtown" Clark. (like Gonzaga depends on Drew Timme) Arguably the BEST player in NCAA women's hoops this season!! Watch her, she's terrific!! (kind of like a white female Kobe Bryant) As a 6'0" guard she leads the team in rebound avg, leads the team with an AWESOME 8.5 assists avg, oh yeah, and 27 ppg!!! If Clark is on, they win (and cover -5) easily. But...if she is OFF her game, gets in fouls, or injured, then they likely lose - even if Louisville just plays an average game. She means EVERYTHING to IOWA's chances.

As a team IOWA averages 37% from the arc and an AWESOME 51% from the floor!
This compares with Louisville's 35% and 45%

Louisville's conf losses to very good teams comparable to IOWA, twice to V.Tech, twice to Notre Dame were nailbiter losses....but their recent tourny wins over good teams were decisive.

DOWN THE STRETCH?
Louisvilles last 2 outings were impressive, but the 5 games before were not, with 2 losses and a nailbiter over a mediocre opponent.

IOWA has been on a mission since being routed by 28 pts at Maryland. Clark had an off game with more turnovers than assists! IOWA then beat 3 consecutive quality teams, each higher ranked than Louisville, in conference, before upending a tough Georgia squad by 8 and then an even tougher Colorado team by 10 last outing.

The outcome depends on IOWA's Clark, so I am holding off either way until I see how well she plays...

So I've seen enough with under 4 mins left 1Q.....Hawkeyes down  12 - 15.....but CLARK playing very well....

IOWA -150  *Best Bet

Since Louisville began on an initial 8 - 0 run to start the game, Caitlin & supporting cast went 48 - 35 to go to HT up 5

Clark's season avg is 27 pts and 7 assists per game. 

She already has 22 pts and 8 assists in just one half!

The line on IOWA now at HT is up to -375 but I don't advise it because now there is an issue.......Clark picked up a silly foul at the end of the 1H.  She now has 2.  Personally, I believe, that if longtime veteran coach Lisa Bluder does not sit her for the first several minutes of the 3Q, the refs will be looking for the tiniest little touch and give her a 3rd foul.....then she will have to sit for quite awhile and Louisville will storm back and probably take the lead before Clark gets back in.   THEY SHOULD SIT HER NOW AND hold down the fort WITHOUT HER early 3Q....*EXPECT* the refs to issue a 3rd foul on her this coming 3rdQ.....I just know they want to....

Well......she escaped the 3rdQ .....GOOD!

Mid 4th she already has 36 pts and 11 assists!!!

[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: NIT PICKING WOMEN My rankings: #46 Oregon   @ #51 WASHINGTON Oregon was 8 - 12 in conf, but only 2 - 7 OTRThey escaped with a narrow 2 pt win over Washington, on neutral court, in conf playoffs, 2 weeks after losing AT WASHINGTON by 8 Washington 7 - 12 in conf, but 5 - 4 on homecourt In game #1 Oregon won at home by 7In game #2 Washington won at home by 8In game #3 played in Las Vegas, Oregon won a nailbiterTonight's game is a home game in Washington! These two teams are EVEN strength! But home team edge to HUSKIES.All players on both teams are expected to be available tonight, but the line, if accurate, is curious since WASHINGTON has a fair edge due to the home venue.

W  LADY HUSKIES +11.5-120  *Best Bet

[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]So I've seen enough with under 4 mins left 1Q.....

Hawkeyes down  12 - 15.....but CLARK playing very well....

W IOWA -150  *Best Bet  

Two *BEST BET winners in Women's hoops on Sunday!

W  LADY HUSKIES +11.5-120 *Best Bet
W  IOWA -150 (live; early 1stQ) *Best Bet

Those wins bring my Women's *Best Bets to:  29 - 13 

@fubah2

 I keep looking at the girls lines and see South Carolina at -250 to win the Tourney. They seem so superior to all others at this point being double digit favs every game.

Do you feel this has something of value?  I still have trouble laying 2.5 to win 1 unit or playing the big chalk.

            NIT PICKING WOMEN

Florida+3.5/+130   @BOWLING GREEN -3.5/-180

My rankings:
#62 Florida     at #59 BOWLING GREEN

The bottom line:
Florida in SEC against opps similar to Bowling Green went 2 - 3, plus 2 playoff wins, specifically 3 - 1 OTR at those similar opps!

BOWLING GREEN in MAC against opps similar to FLorida went 3 - 3, plus 2 solid playoff wins but against teams slightly weaker than Florida, but specifically ON HOMECOURT 4 - 0 -- although one was OT, and another was an opp slightly weaker than Florida (Memphis, last game)

PASS

Thanks for the reminder!  I normally don't consider any futures until final 4 due to my concerns about fluke injuries or opt outs before then, but now that you mention it, after Gamecocks whup the Terps tonight the futures line on South Carolina will rise!

The Lady Gamecocks are the DOMINANT FORCE in NCAA.   There are very good reasons why they are DD favs most of the time.  I won't go into all the reasons but a few:  they spread the ball around and their bench gets a heavy does of action. Meaning they DO NOT rely on any ONE superstar (like Caitlin Clark for IOWA)  So if any starter goes down due to injury or foul troubles - NO BIGGIE! - they don't miss a beat at all!  That also means coach Staley can, if she needs to, platoon her players and push the ball in a very high-paced game to wear down the opps with no loss in scoring or defense.  What a luxury to have.

Well, that and her starting forward line is the tallest in Women's NCAA at 6'7" and 6'5" and 6'4"

Here's a solution for anyone who has trepidation about betting chalk: 

BET A SMALLER AMOUNT than the ML odds!  

Say your usual bet is lay $100 to win $91 on spreads....then here, even though the moneyline is -250 or -280 or whatever, just bet your usual $100 to win a smaller amount. 

PRESTO!! NO CHANCE OF A HUGE LOSS!! 

And yeah, I would recommend that bet at -250 odds (only laying your usual amount though)

  *NOTE:
       In my capping style for both MENS and WOMENS NCAA,
I completely disregard all games played before Christmas
(including any in conf)

     The second half of the season is most recent and therefore
more relative to the way a team is playing, compared with
pre-Christmas tournaments in the Bahamas/Hawaii or whatever.

    Quite often teams have new coaching staffs, and usually a few
new players (transfers, rookies) and it takes time to determine
best lineups, chemistry, and make evaluations in game conditions.
To me, pre-Chirstmas games are like an extended preseason
in the NFL. Experimentation is frequent, so they can prepare for
the much more meaningful CONFERENCE games in the New Year.

In fact big favs having new faces will often experiment to the point
that they either lose games, or almost, to much weaker opps --
and that in turn raises the rating of that weaker team just BY LUCK,
not by superior skills. Many teams are overvalued as a result of
fluky wins in preseason, or conversely fluky losses. I look for those
over-valuations within conference standings and find lines that are
from 2 to 5 points off from where they should be if we just disregard
their upset win (or loss) over an opp where a completely different
result was expected. Same as preseason NFL!!

Also, in conference schedules yield plenty of "common opponents"
for comparisons. And I typically start betting in last week of
January to give conference teams time to sort themselves out.
My capping success is rooted in just those final 6 weeks of the
CONFERENCE games. Once into the various tournaments,
evaluations are much tougher to make...

I am NOT suggesting anyone switch to my way of capping.
But this method is what works well for me....

So if you happen to read in my posted game analysis that it looks
to you like I am not considering a matchup between two teams that
occurred last November, now you know why....

However, if considering those games has proven year-after-year
to result in profits for YOU, then by all means keep doing it!

                   WOMEN - ELITE 8

Maryland vs. S.Carolina

My rankings:
#7 Maryland   vs.   #1 S.Carolina

BOTTOM LINE:
S.Carolina is big time head & shoulders above the rest of teams, figuratively and literally! VERY TALL! And they are the BEST TEAM -- haven't lost a single game.

Tonight's game is being played in Greenville, SOUTH CAROLINA - a mere 1:50 drive from Columbia, but of course they have fans of the Lady Gamecocks all over the entire state! So it will be a partisan crowd for sure.

The line is outrageous on SC. Backdoor spread cover for Terps is possible in garbage time but I do not expect this one to be close ....though Terps are very good and they will hang with SC for quite awhile, I suspect...

WOMENS LIVE ACTION BET:  Gamecocks down 15 - 21 after 1Q, just started into 2ndQ 

SC -290   *Best Bet

Terps still leading 23 - 22  midway into 2Q ...........

then SC hits a layup to get the lead back finallly!.......unfortunately a Maryland gal is down on the floor, possibly hurt

SC, playing a virtual home game, is now up 38 - 30 at the half and the line on them has shot up to -4000 LOL

But Terps will make a run and close the gap at least once in the 2H if not twice....

homecourt holds firm in the nit once again ! 

  thx !

That win raises my Women's *Best Bets to:  30 - 13