@fubah2 Nice call and I like to wait on best live line I can find as its so hard to beat the juice.
You made a good grab there!
I believed it would be much closer....and indeed it probably would have been but for an unusual high number of fouls assessed the ND bigs. All 3 of their front line started just one minute into the 4thQ with 4 fouls each....that's a BAD BEAT........though I still anticipated a Maryland win as per my writeup on the previous page.
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Quote Originally Posted by witswits:
@fubah2 Nice call and I like to wait on best live line I can find as its so hard to beat the juice.
You made a good grab there!
I believed it would be much closer....and indeed it probably would have been but for an unusual high number of fouls assessed the ND bigs. All 3 of their front line started just one minute into the 4thQ with 4 fouls each....that's a BAD BEAT........though I still anticipated a Maryland win as per my writeup on the previous page.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: WOMEN's *Best Bet YTD: 26 - 13 PLAYING WITH THE WOMEN Fighting Irish +6/+210 vs. Maryland Terps -6/-250 My ratings: #19 Irish vs. #8 Terps Both teams finished 16 - 4 in their respective conferences, but Notre Dame played their 20 games in modestly tougher ACC (Women). Each team performed about equally against the other top teams in their conferences. *Irish would be ranked dead even with Maryland or even a rank above, but for the loss of their all everything guard, Olivia Miles, Feb 26. And this is key! She was their top rebounder and top playmaker by far, and a very close #2 in scoring - arguably the BEST player on the team - now gonzo.Since losing her, they struggled to win games games against weaker opps NC State and Miss.State and they were clobbered by Louisville, March 4. Louisville was almost equal with Notre Dame in conf but lost 2 narrow squeakers to ND late in the season, before getting their revenge after Miles was lost for the season. Really just a BAD BEAT for Notre Dame losing Olivia Miles. But that brings us to the reality today. ND is a lesser team without her. They will put up a valiant effort against a very good squad - and probably hang with them through the first half at least if not well into the 4thQ....but all else being equal (esp FOULS!! and shooting) then Terps win this and deservedly so as they earned their place in the tournament. They beat a highly ranked Buckeyes team TWICE late in the season as well as splitting with even higher ranked IOWA. Maryland is expected to have all hands on deck and same for Notre Dame, except for their best player.Game should still be close though....And anything can happen in sports. ND might surprise with unexpected fantastic shooting! Or Maryland could get into foul troubles, or go stone cold!...... so another frickin nailbiter for Fubah ....but I gotta play the odds here....
TERPS -250 *Best Bet
great call on your best bet fubs !!
u da man
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: WOMEN's *Best Bet YTD: 26 - 13 PLAYING WITH THE WOMEN Fighting Irish +6/+210 vs. Maryland Terps -6/-250 My ratings: #19 Irish vs. #8 Terps Both teams finished 16 - 4 in their respective conferences, but Notre Dame played their 20 games in modestly tougher ACC (Women). Each team performed about equally against the other top teams in their conferences. *Irish would be ranked dead even with Maryland or even a rank above, but for the loss of their all everything guard, Olivia Miles, Feb 26. And this is key! She was their top rebounder and top playmaker by far, and a very close #2 in scoring - arguably the BEST player on the team - now gonzo.Since losing her, they struggled to win games games against weaker opps NC State and Miss.State and they were clobbered by Louisville, March 4. Louisville was almost equal with Notre Dame in conf but lost 2 narrow squeakers to ND late in the season, before getting their revenge after Miles was lost for the season. Really just a BAD BEAT for Notre Dame losing Olivia Miles. But that brings us to the reality today. ND is a lesser team without her. They will put up a valiant effort against a very good squad - and probably hang with them through the first half at least if not well into the 4thQ....but all else being equal (esp FOULS!! and shooting) then Terps win this and deservedly so as they earned their place in the tournament. They beat a highly ranked Buckeyes team TWICE late in the season as well as splitting with even higher ranked IOWA. Maryland is expected to have all hands on deck and same for Notre Dame, except for their best player.Game should still be close though....And anything can happen in sports. ND might surprise with unexpected fantastic shooting! Or Maryland could get into foul troubles, or go stone cold!...... so another frickin nailbiter for Fubah ....but I gotta play the odds here....
W Maryland Terps -250 *Best Bet The winner improves my WOMEN's *Best Bet YTD to: 27 - 13
WOMENS Best Bets YTD: 27 - 13 for+39.25 units*
*....if grading my NCAA bets at a mean avg of 5-units-to-win on all my *Best Bets (like several others on this forum do with their picks!)...or...divide that number by 5 if you grade picks to win one unit - which is the common "level the playing field" grading standard
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
W Maryland Terps -250 *Best Bet The winner improves my WOMEN's *Best Bet YTD to: 27 - 13
WOMENS Best Bets YTD: 27 - 13 for+39.25 units*
*....if grading my NCAA bets at a mean avg of 5-units-to-win on all my *Best Bets (like several others on this forum do with their picks!)...or...divide that number by 5 if you grade picks to win one unit - which is the common "level the playing field" grading standard
*...if bettors had placed a mean avg of 5-units-to-win on all my *Best Bets (like several others on this forum do with their picks!) and at an avg of $1k per unit, then those bettors would be up over $123,000 after just 7 weeks of betting these.....I am not recommending anyone actually do that, but hypothetically those would be the results....Or, if you choose to grade results as if betting to win one-unit each pick, then a net +24.69 units
2
MENS *BEST BETS:68 - 24+123.45 units*
*...if bettors had placed a mean avg of 5-units-to-win on all my *Best Bets (like several others on this forum do with their picks!) and at an avg of $1k per unit, then those bettors would be up over $123,000 after just 7 weeks of betting these.....I am not recommending anyone actually do that, but hypothetically those would be the results....Or, if you choose to grade results as if betting to win one-unit each pick, then a net +24.69 units
A review of my posted "heavy chalk" results to date in MEN's NCAA:
1 - 0 ......lines of -600 and up (Winner was -650) 0 - 1 ......lines of -500 to -599 (loser was -575)** 7 - 0 ......lines of -400 to -499 16 - 1 ..... lines of -300 to -399 (loser was -325)
======= = 24 - 2 (92.3%)
If profiting off heavy chalk bets was easy (as some critics suggest) then everyone would be doing it.
My heavy chalk LOSERS were (2), in descending order: -575** -325
** my -575 bet on Washington St; only to learn at gametime - without any advance warning!!! - that they were sitting out their BEST PLAYER - otherwise I never would have bet that....so I should be 23 - 1
The heavy chalk LOSERS were (2), in descending order: -575** -325
** my -575 bet on Washington St; only to learn at gametime - without any advance warning!!! - that they were sitting out their BEST PLAYER - otherwise I never would have bet that ...so I should be 24 - 1
My heavy chalk winners were (24), in descending order: -650 -450 -450 -425 -425 -425 -415 -400 -375 -375 -370 -360 -360 -350 -330 -320 -320 -315 -308 -300 -300 -300 -300 -300
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A review of my posted "heavy chalk" results to date in MEN's NCAA:
1 - 0 ......lines of -600 and up (Winner was -650) 0 - 1 ......lines of -500 to -599 (loser was -575)** 7 - 0 ......lines of -400 to -499 16 - 1 ..... lines of -300 to -399 (loser was -325)
======= = 24 - 2 (92.3%)
If profiting off heavy chalk bets was easy (as some critics suggest) then everyone would be doing it.
My heavy chalk LOSERS were (2), in descending order: -575** -325
** my -575 bet on Washington St; only to learn at gametime - without any advance warning!!! - that they were sitting out their BEST PLAYER - otherwise I never would have bet that....so I should be 23 - 1
The heavy chalk LOSERS were (2), in descending order: -575** -325
** my -575 bet on Washington St; only to learn at gametime - without any advance warning!!! - that they were sitting out their BEST PLAYER - otherwise I never would have bet that ...so I should be 24 - 1
My heavy chalk winners were (24), in descending order: -650 -450 -450 -425 -425 -425 -415 -400 -375 -375 -370 -360 -360 -350 -330 -320 -320 -315 -308 -300 -300 -300 -300 -300
Coming up next in WOMENS play is UCLA vs. South Carolina - the most dominant team in WOMENS NCAA by far. They are 17.5 pt favs for a good reason - even against a good team like UCLA.
No way am I laying -3500 on S.Carol or giving the pts either, because in expected blowouts I always HATE when the leading team decides to rest top players toward the end of a game in a blowout win - and then a backdoor cover for UCLA. NO BET here - and likely not in-game either - due to uncertainty of how SC plays the final Q...
And sure enough...SC had a comfortable 21 pt lead with only 1:45 left in the game...make substitutes....allow UCLA to score the last 5 points to get a BACKDOOR COVER just like I suspected might happen with such a heavy fav
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Coming up next in WOMENS play is UCLA vs. South Carolina - the most dominant team in WOMENS NCAA by far. They are 17.5 pt favs for a good reason - even against a good team like UCLA.
No way am I laying -3500 on S.Carol or giving the pts either, because in expected blowouts I always HATE when the leading team decides to rest top players toward the end of a game in a blowout win - and then a backdoor cover for UCLA. NO BET here - and likely not in-game either - due to uncertainty of how SC plays the final Q...
And sure enough...SC had a comfortable 21 pt lead with only 1:45 left in the game...make substitutes....allow UCLA to score the last 5 points to get a BACKDOOR COVER just like I suspected might happen with such a heavy fav
Gametime line on the WOMENS Yukon SledDogs was -10 fav They are behind by a point 17 - 18 early 2Q. Buckeyes came to play with intensity after being down by 7
Down 17 - 25 now and Buckeyes have the ball back !!!!
Big upset coming???
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Gametime line on the WOMENS Yukon SledDogs was -10 fav They are behind by a point 17 - 18 early 2Q. Buckeyes came to play with intensity after being down by 7
Down 17 - 25 now and Buckeyes have the ball back !!!!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Gametime line on the WOMENS Yukon SledDogs was -10 fav They are behind by a point 17 - 18 early 2Q. Buckeyes came to play with intensity after being down by 7 Down 17 - 25 now and Buckeyes have the ball back !!!! Big upset coming???
Now Huskies point guard just reinjured her knee and left.
And another starter just picked up her 3rd foul mid way thru the 2Q!!!
17 - 0 run for OSU...
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Gametime line on the WOMENS Yukon SledDogs was -10 fav They are behind by a point 17 - 18 early 2Q. Buckeyes came to play with intensity after being down by 7 Down 17 - 25 now and Buckeyes have the ball back !!!! Big upset coming???
Now Huskies point guard just reinjured her knee and left.
And another starter just picked up her 3rd foul mid way thru the 2Q!!!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Gametime line on the WOMENS Yukon SledDogs was -10 fav They are behind by a point 17 - 18 early 2Q. Buckeyes came to play with intensity after being down by 7 Down 17 - 25 now and Buckeyes have the ball back !!!! Big upset coming??? Now Huskies point guard just reinjured her knee and left. And another starter just picked up her 3rd foul mid way thru the 2Q!!! 17 - 0 run for OSU...
Wow!! The dd heavy fav Huskies are down 26 - 36 at HT
They're actually shooting well - comparable with OSU...but they're not getting 2nd chance shots like OSU is.
Also they have made a WHOPPING 18 turnovers compared to only 6 for OSU, hence the big disparity in number of shots, even though their avg is actually better. I am a believer that MOST times, sloppy play in the first half can be repaired. Usually, but not always.
But a bigger concern is UCONNs top two players, Edwards and Lopez may be in trouble.
Edwards is their top scorer on the season and she has 3 fouls at the half. She will be sitting some more.
Lopez, their #2 scorer on the season, is a questionmark as she hobbled off the court with knee pain...
That and they are down 10 pts to a very good OSU team with no issues.
I was hoping to grab a play on UCONN WOMEN today - even though I thought they should only have been -6 pt favs to start.....BUT, these issues are concerning.
If they can close the gap - somehow - and get back Lopez....then get Edwards into the 4thQ with still only 3 fouls, then maybe
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Gametime line on the WOMENS Yukon SledDogs was -10 fav They are behind by a point 17 - 18 early 2Q. Buckeyes came to play with intensity after being down by 7 Down 17 - 25 now and Buckeyes have the ball back !!!! Big upset coming??? Now Huskies point guard just reinjured her knee and left. And another starter just picked up her 3rd foul mid way thru the 2Q!!! 17 - 0 run for OSU...
Wow!! The dd heavy fav Huskies are down 26 - 36 at HT
They're actually shooting well - comparable with OSU...but they're not getting 2nd chance shots like OSU is.
Also they have made a WHOPPING 18 turnovers compared to only 6 for OSU, hence the big disparity in number of shots, even though their avg is actually better. I am a believer that MOST times, sloppy play in the first half can be repaired. Usually, but not always.
But a bigger concern is UCONNs top two players, Edwards and Lopez may be in trouble.
Edwards is their top scorer on the season and she has 3 fouls at the half. She will be sitting some more.
Lopez, their #2 scorer on the season, is a questionmark as she hobbled off the court with knee pain...
That and they are down 10 pts to a very good OSU team with no issues.
I was hoping to grab a play on UCONN WOMEN today - even though I thought they should only have been -6 pt favs to start.....BUT, these issues are concerning.
If they can close the gap - somehow - and get back Lopez....then get Edwards into the 4thQ with still only 3 fouls, then maybe
But a bigger concern is UCONNs top two players, Edwards and Lopez may be in trouble. Edwards is their top scorer on the season and she has 3 fouls at the half. She will be sitting some more. Lopez, their #2 scorer on the season, is a questionmark as she hobbled off the court with knee pain... That and they are down 10 pts to a very good OSU team with no issues. I was hoping to grab a play on UCONN WOMEN today - even though I thought they should only have been -6 pt favs to start.....BUT, these issues are concerning. If they can close the gap - somehow - and get back Lopez....then get Edwards into the 4thQ with still only 3 fouls, then maybe
And now UCONNs best player, Edwards, was just given a 4th foul just 3.5 mins into the 3rdQ....She'll be out awhile now....and OSU still leading by 10.....
BIG upset coming
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
But a bigger concern is UCONNs top two players, Edwards and Lopez may be in trouble. Edwards is their top scorer on the season and she has 3 fouls at the half. She will be sitting some more. Lopez, their #2 scorer on the season, is a questionmark as she hobbled off the court with knee pain... That and they are down 10 pts to a very good OSU team with no issues. I was hoping to grab a play on UCONN WOMEN today - even though I thought they should only have been -6 pt favs to start.....BUT, these issues are concerning. If they can close the gap - somehow - and get back Lopez....then get Edwards into the 4thQ with still only 3 fouls, then maybe
And now UCONNs best player, Edwards, was just given a 4th foul just 3.5 mins into the 3rdQ....She'll be out awhile now....and OSU still leading by 10.....
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: But a bigger concern is UCONNs top two players, Edwards and Lopez may be in trouble. Edwards is their top scorer on the season and she has 3 fouls at the half. She will be sitting some more. Lopez, their #2 scorer on the season, is a questionmark as she hobbled off the court with knee pain... That and they are down 10 pts to a very good OSU team with no issues. I was hoping to grab a play on UCONN WOMEN today - even though I thought they should only have been -6 pt favs to start.....BUT, these issues are concerning. If they can close the gap - somehow - and get back Lopez....then get Edwards into the 4thQ with still only 3 fouls, then maybe And now UCONNs best player, Edwards, was just given a 4th foul just 3.5 mins into the 3rdQ....She'll be out awhile now....and OSU still leading by 10..... BIG upset coming
Good news is LOPEZ their 2nd best player is back in and playing well
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: But a bigger concern is UCONNs top two players, Edwards and Lopez may be in trouble. Edwards is their top scorer on the season and she has 3 fouls at the half. She will be sitting some more. Lopez, their #2 scorer on the season, is a questionmark as she hobbled off the court with knee pain... That and they are down 10 pts to a very good OSU team with no issues. I was hoping to grab a play on UCONN WOMEN today - even though I thought they should only have been -6 pt favs to start.....BUT, these issues are concerning. If they can close the gap - somehow - and get back Lopez....then get Edwards into the 4thQ with still only 3 fouls, then maybe And now UCONNs best player, Edwards, was just given a 4th foul just 3.5 mins into the 3rdQ....She'll be out awhile now....and OSU still leading by 10..... BIG upset coming
Good news is LOPEZ their 2nd best player is back in and playing well
Now Buckeyes are -12.5 favs with most of the 4Q left.....
At this point all players will be available, but down 16 pts?
Nope. Unfortunately Yukon SledDogs are going to suffer a huge upset to a weaker but determined team who have benefitted from gaining 13 more pts from the ref's charity stripe
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Now Buckeyes are -12.5 favs with most of the 4Q left.....
At this point all players will be available, but down 16 pts?
Nope. Unfortunately Yukon SledDogs are going to suffer a huge upset to a weaker but determined team who have benefitted from gaining 13 more pts from the ref's charity stripe
My view on FAU vs. Kansas State My ratings: #22 FAU vs. #19 KSU KSU a tiny fav of -1 Coin flipper. And if Nowell tweaks his sore ankle again, it's over. My urge is to think NO WAY a nobody team like FAU gets thru....but I've learned to stop thinking that way.
FAU was just up 6 and became the fav.....
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
My view on FAU vs. Kansas State My ratings: #22 FAU vs. #19 KSU KSU a tiny fav of -1 Coin flipper. And if Nowell tweaks his sore ankle again, it's over. My urge is to think NO WAY a nobody team like FAU gets thru....but I've learned to stop thinking that way.
BTW, to the 6 or 7 guys who occasionally open my thread, I am looking for a better opp to bet on the HOKIES WOMEN.....they are the marginally better team and proving it in the first half, up 35 - 22 at HT, finishing on an 8 - 0 run......unlike most I am willing to risk "chalk" to get the wins. As you can see from post #1158 risking chalk is working very well. But right now the line is -1100 and that's just waaaaaay too risky, in a game that could suddenly about face on fouls or injuries.
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BTW, to the 6 or 7 guys who occasionally open my thread, I am looking for a better opp to bet on the HOKIES WOMEN.....they are the marginally better team and proving it in the first half, up 35 - 22 at HT, finishing on an 8 - 0 run......unlike most I am willing to risk "chalk" to get the wins. As you can see from post #1158 risking chalk is working very well. But right now the line is -1100 and that's just waaaaaay too risky, in a game that could suddenly about face on fouls or injuries.
BTW, to the 6 or 7 guys who occasionally open my thread, I am looking for a better opp to bet on the HOKIES WOMEN.....they are the marginally better team and proving it in the first half, up 35 - 22 at HT, finishing on an 8 - 0 run......unlike most I am willing to risk "chalk" to get the wins. As you can see from post #1158 risking chalk is working very well. But right now the line is -1100 and that's just waaaaaay too risky, in a game that could suddenly about face on fouls or injuries.
Hokies were up 18 pts, line was -2500.......now they are only up 4
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
BTW, to the 6 or 7 guys who occasionally open my thread, I am looking for a better opp to bet on the HOKIES WOMEN.....they are the marginally better team and proving it in the first half, up 35 - 22 at HT, finishing on an 8 - 0 run......unlike most I am willing to risk "chalk" to get the wins. As you can see from post #1158 risking chalk is working very well. But right now the line is -1100 and that's just waaaaaay too risky, in a game that could suddenly about face on fouls or injuries.
Hokies were up 18 pts, line was -2500.......now they are only up 4
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: BTW, to the 6 or 7 guys who occasionally open my thread, I am looking for a better opp to bet on the HOKIES WOMEN.....they are the marginally better team and proving it in the first half, up 35 - 22 at HT, finishing on an 8 - 0 run......unlike most I am willing to risk "chalk" to get the wins. As you can see from post #1158 risking chalk is working very well. But right now the line is -1100 and that's just waaaaaay too risky, in a game that could suddenly about face on fouls or injuries. Hokies were up 18 pts, line was -2500.......now they are only up 4
VOLS went on a 16 - 2 run...
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: BTW, to the 6 or 7 guys who occasionally open my thread, I am looking for a better opp to bet on the HOKIES WOMEN.....they are the marginally better team and proving it in the first half, up 35 - 22 at HT, finishing on an 8 - 0 run......unlike most I am willing to risk "chalk" to get the wins. As you can see from post #1158 risking chalk is working very well. But right now the line is -1100 and that's just waaaaaay too risky, in a game that could suddenly about face on fouls or injuries. Hokies were up 18 pts, line was -2500.......now they are only up 4
BTW, to the 6 or 7 guys who occasionally open my thread, I am looking for a better opp to bet on the HOKIES WOMEN.....they are the marginally better team and proving it in the first half, up 35 - 22 at HT, finishing on an 8 - 0 run......unlike most I am willing to risk "chalk" to get the wins. As you can see from post #1158 risking chalk is working very well. But right now the line is -1100 and that's just waaaaaay too risky, in a game that could suddenly about face on fouls or injuries.
HOKIES!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
BTW, to the 6 or 7 guys who occasionally open my thread, I am looking for a better opp to bet on the HOKIES WOMEN.....they are the marginally better team and proving it in the first half, up 35 - 22 at HT, finishing on an 8 - 0 run......unlike most I am willing to risk "chalk" to get the wins. As you can see from post #1158 risking chalk is working very well. But right now the line is -1100 and that's just waaaaaay too risky, in a game that could suddenly about face on fouls or injuries.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: @fubah2 any thoughts on uconn - gonzaga ? Well I was giving this some thought.... and ??
And I have this as a coinflipper.
I'll watchthe game and monitor the boxscore metrics for possibles edges and maybe have an in-game bet at some point
BoL to you on your bets!
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Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: @fubah2 any thoughts on uconn - gonzaga ? Well I was giving this some thought.... and ??
And I have this as a coinflipper.
I'll watchthe game and monitor the boxscore metrics for possibles edges and maybe have an in-game bet at some point
...so I should be 24 - 1
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