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🤢🥴_ Fubah's 2023 Hoops Thread _😲🥵

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Posted: #776

Quote Originally Posted by jackedward32:

Quote Originally Posted by jackedward32: @fubah2   @fubah2   Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: *BestBets record improves to  65 - 2316 - 2 *BBs since returning from week-long Reunion/Retreat in Hawaii with my fellow National Guard alums                                          NIT PICKING   OKL State Ka-Boys @Youngstown Penguins My ratings: #42 @ #138 No mystery here.  Significant edge here to the Ka-Boys - hence the spread as a road fav.Anderson still out for OSU but not significant imo, as they've played well w/o him since Feb 1. My concern is OSU motivation when West Va - who had a worse conf record - gets in but OSU is left out of the DANCE and relegated to the NIT. And possibly some unforeseen lineup change from OSU later.....maybe....who knows No significant injuries to either team....that we know of. So this is another one I will wait to see the pregame warmups at least, but likely holdoff and look for opportunities for ingame bets. GL Opinion on the Cowboys?  Good ML now and I want to think they’ll pull away. I took OSU at -115. Saw Ytown State earlier and just cannot see them beating the Cowboys.

Yeah, boxscore metrics looks reasonable -- ASSUMING they are motivated to comeback.... thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #777

LIVE ACTION bet: Okl.State -1.5-115 to win game..... down 4 pts with 6:30 mins to go in 1H

 
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Posted: #778

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

LIVE ACTION bet: Okl.State -1.5-115 to win game..... down 4 pts with 6:30 mins to go in 1H

So I took the bet on reasonable boxscore metrics but with a hunch the Ka-boys are duly motivated to be in the NIT......they were down 4 when I made the live bet and now they are down 9 with 4mins left in 1H......plenty of time to turn it around but motivation might be an issue......unknown........they are by far the better team, but they are on the road, and Youngstown is DEFINITELY motivated!!

 
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Posted: #779

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: LIVE ACTION bet: Okl.State -1.5-115 to win game..... down 4 pts with 6:30 mins to go in 1H So I took the bet on reasonable boxscore metrics but with a hunch the Ka-boys are duly motivated to be in the NIT......they were down 4 when I made the live bet and now they are down 9 with 4mins left in 1H......plenty of time to turn it around but motivation might be an issue......unknown........they are by far the better team, but they are on the road, and Youngstown is DEFINITELY motivated!!

I expect the Ka-Boys to be motivated in the 2H now that they realize this is no cake walk over a beatable opp.  So I expect their shooting to improve and pull ahead.   Then the story might become the referees.....

 
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Posted: #780

clovertx

 
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Posted: #781

FWIW......I would look at some of these 1st  half spreads and moneylines,  both Y state and UCF.....were steamed down..... Don't believe the public looks at derivative market.....which has value

 
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Posted: #782

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

*BestBets record improves to 65 - 23                        NIT PICKING   UCF Knights @FLORIDA Gators My ratings: #79  @#75(adjusted for loss of top player) Waaaaaay to close for me to call. Can effectively toss out all Gator's scores & records prior to Feb 16 because that is when their standout BEST player, 6'11" Castleton, was lost to injury. Only the games after that are of any interest to me for capping. And it's a mixed bag. Plus Gators may be depressed from losing by a single point to Miss.St. in OT - whereupon a win - and they had multiple chances to win it - would have put them in the Tournament. So motivation could be an issue tonight. And I am skittish now about betting a HOME FAV when - particularly at this time of year - players may be held out or opt out. Except for Castleton, no apparent injuries/opt-outs to either team.....so far! This one is a wait and see "coin-flipper" imo (without Castleton) and only possibly an ingame bet on either squad depending on flow, fouls, and other boxscore metrics. PASS

Gators appear to be UNmotivated an_getaway

 
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Posted: #783

Quote Originally Posted by Rip100:

FWIW......I would look at some of these 1st  half spreads and moneylines,  both Y state and UCF.....were steamed down..... Don't believe the public looks at derivative market.....which has value
 

Good point!  thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #784

Watch how the  pregame favs that are DOWN @HT emerge from the HT break.........IF duly motivated they should surge on a run or two within the first 6 or 7 mins.....

 
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Posted: #785

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Watch how the  pregame favs that are DOWN @HT emerge from the HT break.........IF duly motivated they should surge on a run or two within the first 6 or 7 mins.....

....and FLORIDA has not....after the 4.25 mins being outscored 4 - 6.....I wanna take UCF but the price is way to high....

 
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Posted: #786

Just an observation, but watching Texas Southern play is more painful than getting a root canal without novocaine. 

 
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Posted: #787

There are records out there on NBA teams 1Q /half  available  that shows what teams start fast and slow, I know the thread is about College Baskets but, just thought that market can be exploitedcool......

 

 

 
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Posted: #788

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Watch how the  pregame favs that are DOWN @HT emerge from the HT break.........IF duly motivated they should surge on a run or two within the first 6 or 7 mins.....

....and FLORIDA has not....after the 4.25 mins being outscored 4 - 6.....I wanna take UCF but the price is way to high....

 

...and apparently OSU has not either  an_nailbiter    down another 3 in early 2H

 
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Posted: #789

an_light*BestBets record improves to   65 - 23
16 - 2 *BBs since returning from our week-long Reunion/Retreat in Hawaii with my fellow National Guard alums

                 NIT PICKING

V.T. Hokies  @Cinci Bearcats
My ratings: #72 @#58

   Bearcats should have a decided edge here, at home.
In all my capping I ignore CBK results/records prior to Christmas.
Hokies are 9 - 13 playing in a GOOD conference.
Bearcats are 12 - 8 in an equally GOOD conference.
Hokies just 2 - 8 OTR in a GOOD conference.
Bearcats 7 - 2 on homecourt in an equally GOOD conference.
Versus similar opp to Bearcats, Hokies 0 - 3 OTR
Versus similar opp to Hokies, Cinci was 3 - 1 on homecourt.
Cinci played VERY WELL down the stretch, losing only to superior teams (Houston;Memphis), both away from home, though one of those was a nailbiter!
Hokies also played well down the stretch, though untested against a team of Bearcats' calibre until they met NC State in their final game - on neutral floor - and got blown by 20.

Neither team suffered in conf schedule injuries significant enough to subjectively adjust their conf records to reflect those losses.
And tonight, no apparent injuries/opt-outs to either team.....so far!

an_lightPretty straight forward for me at least: Cincinnati has a significant edge even more than the ranking comparison suggests!!....*BUT*  I'm not making any bets until I see everything is jake in the pregame warmups! Those last minute, totally unexpected #$%&! lineup alterations are a nightmare. I went 4 - 1 yesterday but lost $$ because of it

 

 
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Posted: #790

Wahoo,Cowboys up by 1!

 

 

 
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Posted: #791

Oy VEY!!!  Is Clemson going to choke - AT HOME - vs a huge underdog??

 
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Posted: #792

Great call on the cowboys!!clovermoneybag

 
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Posted: #793

Quote Originally Posted by yourpalhal:

Great call on the cowboys!!

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #794

Quote Originally Posted by jackedward32:

Quote Originally Posted by jackedward32: @fubah2   @fubah2   Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: *BestBets record improves to  65 - 2316 - 2 *BBs since returning from week-long Reunion/Retreat in Hawaii with my fellow National Guard alums                                          NIT PICKING   OKL State Ka-Boys @Youngstown Penguins My ratings: #42 @ #138 No mystery here.  Significant edge here to the Ka-Boys - hence the spread as a road fav.Anderson still out for OSU but not significant imo, as they've played well w/o him since Feb 1. My concern is OSU motivation when West Va - who had a worse conf record - gets in but OSU is left out of the DANCE and relegated to the NIT. And possibly some unforeseen lineup change from OSU later.....maybe....who knows No significant injuries to either team....that we know of. So this is another one I will wait to see the pregame warmups at least, but likely holdoff and look for opportunities for ingame bets. GL Opinion on the Cowboys?  Good ML now and I want to think they’ll pull away. I took OSU at -115. Saw Ytown State earlier and just cannot see them beating the Cowboys.

Another good call! an_cheers  You're getting the hang of this peace_5

 

 

 
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Posted: #795

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by jackedward32: Quote Originally Posted by jackedward32: @fubah2   @fubah2   Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: *BestBets record improves to  65 - 2316 - 2 *BBs since returning from week-long Reunion/Retreat in Hawaii with my fellow National Guard alums                                          NIT PICKING   OKL State Ka-Boys @Youngstown Penguins My ratings: #42 @ #138 No mystery here.  Significant edge here to the Ka-Boys - hence the spread as a road fav.Anderson still out for OSU but not significant imo, as they've played well w/o him since Feb 1. My concern is OSU motivation when West Va - who had a worse conf record - gets in but OSU is left out of the DANCE and relegated to the NIT. And possibly some unforeseen lineup change from OSU later.....maybe....who knows No significant injuries to either team....that we know of. So this is another one I will wait to see the pregame warmups at least, but likely holdoff and look for opportunities for ingame bets. GL Opinion on the Cowboys?  Good ML now and I want to think they’ll pull away. I took OSU at -115. Saw Ytown State earlier and just cannot see them beating the Cowboys. Another good call!   You're getting the hang of this

Thanks. It was a little dicey there at the end. Saw YSU a couple times this year and they were pretty out of control. Couldn’t see a motivated Big 12 team lose to them even on the road. 

 
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Posted: #796

Quote Originally Posted by jackedward32:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by jackedward32: Quote Originally Posted by jackedward32: @fubah2   @fubah2   Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: *BestBets record improves to  65 - 2316 - 2 *BBs since returning from week-long Reunion/Retreat in Hawaii with my fellow National Guard alums                                          NIT PICKING   OKL State Ka-Boys @Youngstown Penguins My ratings: #42 @ #138 No mystery here.  Significant edge here to the Ka-Boys - hence the spread as a road fav.Anderson still out for OSU but not significant imo, as they've played well w/o him since Feb 1. My concern is OSU motivation when West Va - who had a worse conf record - gets in but OSU is left out of the DANCE and relegated to the NIT. And possibly some unforeseen lineup change from OSU later.....maybe....who knows No significant injuries to either team....that we know of. So this is another one I will wait to see the pregame warmups at least, but likely holdoff and look for opportunities for ingame bets. GL Opinion on the Cowboys?  Good ML now and I want to think they’ll pull away. I took OSU at -115. Saw Ytown State earlier and just cannot see them beating the Cowboys. Another good call!   You're getting the hang of this Thanks. It was a little dicey there at the end. Saw YSU a couple times this year and they were pretty out of control. Couldn’t see a motivated Big 12 team lose to them even on the road.

Next up - waiting for the Hokies to go on a little run to drive that ML down to lay some $ on Cincy. 

 
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Posted: #797

Quote Originally Posted by jackedward32:

Next up - waiting for the Hokies to go on a little run to drive that ML down to lay some $ on Cincy.
EXACTLY!  thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #798

Quote Originally Posted by yourpalhal:

Great call on the cowboys!!

Hope you got in!  an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #799

CLEMSON  - playing UNmotivated due to being snubbed - at home - get upset by a weakling team.

 
 
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Posted: #800

Pulled the trigger on the Bearcats getting -180 ML. Maybe a little premature but under -200 is still a decent number for a home favorite. 

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