Posted:
#676
Since post-season play first began (March 05)
Only MEN's: 106 - 50 
(45 - 13 *Best Bets)
* A similar term for *Best Bets is POD
3
🔴🥳🍀🥂.. 98 - 41 on NCAA bets since post-season play began March 05 🥳
Posted:
#680
Quote Originally Posted by TheBigC23:
Good luck tonight! I’m sticking with my lean to Iowa women’s!
Good luck tonight! I’m sticking with my lean to Iowa women’s!
YES. 
Lean to Hawkeyes for sure.... 
For me, LEANING means I favor their chances but holding off on making a bet until ingame conditions suggest a solid bet. For example in game 1 tonight, I definitely LEAN to LADY Gamecocks to win su, but the ML is far too high at -950 so I waive on that until they might possibly fall behind on a fortuitous NC State run at some point EARLY in the game, which of course drops the ML price on S.Carolina......IF that run never occurs and SC remains a heavy moneyline fav, then NO BET.
For game two, I am holding off in this case because it's a close call - and as such I want to see how the game proceeds (both team's performances) - looking for clues toward the eventual SU winner.
Early foul trouble is a significant factor. Likewise hot shooting -- mostly because HOT SHOOTING start to a game very rarely lasts and those numbers typically regress down toward a mean DURING the game....which is why I LOVE to see hot shooting runs **against** the team I am favoring! I can get them for a bargain then (live bets) knowing that the game will even out and my team is going to stage a comeback (usually, but not always)
1
Posted:
#681
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by TheBigC23: Good luck tonight! I’m sticking with my lean to Iowa women’s! YES. Lean to Hawkeyes for sure.... For me, LEANING means I favor their chances but holding off on making a bet until ingame conditions suggest a solid bet. For example in game 1 tonight, I definitely LEAN to LADY Gamecocks to win su, but the ML is far too high at -950 so I waive on that until they might possibly fall behind on a fortuitous NC State run at some point EARLY in the game, which of course drops the ML price on S.Carolina......IF that run never occurs and SC remains a heavy moneyline fav, then NO BET. For game two, I am holding off in this case because it's a close call - and as such I want to see how the game proceeds (both team's performances) - looking for clues toward the eventual SU winner. Early foul trouble is a significant factor. Likewise hot shooting -- mostly because HOT SHOOTING start to a game very rarely lasts and those numbers typically regress down toward a mean DURING the game....which is why I LOVE to see hot shooting runs **against** the team I am favoring! I can get them for a bargain then (live bets) knowing that the game will even out and my team is going to stage a comeback (usually, but not always)
Quote Originally Posted by TheBigC23: Good luck tonight! I’m sticking with my lean to Iowa women’s! YES. Lean to Hawkeyes for sure.... For me, LEANING means I favor their chances but holding off on making a bet until ingame conditions suggest a solid bet. For example in game 1 tonight, I definitely LEAN to LADY Gamecocks to win su, but the ML is far too high at -950 so I waive on that until they might possibly fall behind on a fortuitous NC State run at some point EARLY in the game, which of course drops the ML price on S.Carolina......IF that run never occurs and SC remains a heavy moneyline fav, then NO BET. For game two, I am holding off in this case because it's a close call - and as such I want to see how the game proceeds (both team's performances) - looking for clues toward the eventual SU winner. Early foul trouble is a significant factor. Likewise hot shooting -- mostly because HOT SHOOTING start to a game very rarely lasts and those numbers typically regress down toward a mean DURING the game....which is why I LOVE to see hot shooting runs **against** the team I am favoring! I can get them for a bargain then (live bets) knowing that the game will even out and my team is going to stage a comeback (usually, but not always)
I see in the 1stQ that NC state has edged ahead from a tie game to a 12 - 9 lead....timeout....and now the moneyline on SC is down to -500/-550 (your mileage may vary)....While I favor the best team in WNCAA and am looking to bet them ML, -500 is still far too much of a risk in this situation.... Now if NCState comes out of the timeout and hits a 3 or otherwise increase their lead to 6 + points, THEN that ML will drop into my range!
1
Posted:
#682
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by TheBigC23: Good luck tonight! I’m sticking with my lean to Iowa women’s! YES. Lean to Hawkeyes for sure.... For me, LEANING means I favor their chances but holding off on making a bet until ingame conditions suggest a solid bet. For example in game 1 tonight, I definitely LEAN to LADY Gamecocks to win su, but the ML is far too high at -950 so I waive on that until they might possibly fall behind on a fortuitous NC State run at some point EARLY in the game, which of course drops the ML price on S.Carolina......IF that run never occurs and SC remains a heavy moneyline fav, then NO BET. For game two, I am holding off in this case because it's a close call - and as such I want to see how the game proceeds (both team's performances) - looking for clues toward the eventual SU winner. Early foul trouble is a significant factor. Likewise hot shooting -- mostly because HOT SHOOTING start to a game very rarely lasts and those numbers typically regress down toward a mean DURING the game....which is why I LOVE to see hot shooting runs **against** the team I am favoring! I can get them for a bargain then (live bets) knowing that the game will even out and my team is going to stage a comeback (usually, but not always) I see in the 1stQ that NC state has edged ahead from a tie game to a 12 - 9 lead....timeout....and now the moneyline on SC is down to -500/-550 (your mileage may vary)....While I favor the best team in WNCAA and am looking to bet them ML, -500 is still far too much of a risk in this situation.... Now if NCState comes out of the timeout and hits a 3 or otherwise increase their lead to 6 + points, THEN that ML will drop into my range!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by TheBigC23: Good luck tonight! I’m sticking with my lean to Iowa women’s! YES. Lean to Hawkeyes for sure.... For me, LEANING means I favor their chances but holding off on making a bet until ingame conditions suggest a solid bet. For example in game 1 tonight, I definitely LEAN to LADY Gamecocks to win su, but the ML is far too high at -950 so I waive on that until they might possibly fall behind on a fortuitous NC State run at some point EARLY in the game, which of course drops the ML price on S.Carolina......IF that run never occurs and SC remains a heavy moneyline fav, then NO BET. For game two, I am holding off in this case because it's a close call - and as such I want to see how the game proceeds (both team's performances) - looking for clues toward the eventual SU winner. Early foul trouble is a significant factor. Likewise hot shooting -- mostly because HOT SHOOTING start to a game very rarely lasts and those numbers typically regress down toward a mean DURING the game....which is why I LOVE to see hot shooting runs **against** the team I am favoring! I can get them for a bargain then (live bets) knowing that the game will even out and my team is going to stage a comeback (usually, but not always) I see in the 1stQ that NC state has edged ahead from a tie game to a 12 - 9 lead....timeout....and now the moneyline on SC is down to -500/-550 (your mileage may vary)....While I favor the best team in WNCAA and am looking to bet them ML, -500 is still far too much of a risk in this situation.... Now if NCState comes out of the timeout and hits a 3 or otherwise increase their lead to 6 + points, THEN that ML will drop into my range!
Here's another situation where the ML drops: TIED at end of 1stQ at 16.....now the heavy -950 ml has dropped to -700....still overpriced and too high of course (*they are not 7 X more likely to win SU!).....but as an close game proceeds, the ML keeps dropping for my choice.
The counter-argument is the opp is proving to be tougher than first thought, right? Perhaps. But the good teams don't win all their games by racing out to a lead and never looking back....So in those cases I am looking for clues in the boxscore metrics - particularly FOULS, FT shooting/volume, and of course 3's!!
1
Posted:
#683
Oh-BOY 
Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!!
She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! 
*IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU!
0
Posted:
#684
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU!
Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU!
HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H
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Posted:
#685
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H
Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 
Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC) the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts....
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Posted:
#686
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC) the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts....
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC) the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts....
Yikes...SC hitting inside AND out, now lead by 15 and the moneyline mushrooms to -10,000
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Posted:
#687
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC) the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts....
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC) the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts....
Yikes...SC hitting inside AND out, now lead by 15 and the moneyline mushrooms to -10,000
Late 3Q and 19 pt lead........at this point the game is out of reach for WolfPack but they could cover what is now a +20.5 ingame spread, esp considering I think SC is going to rest their 6'7" star center with the sore leg..... maybe.....
0
Posted:
#688
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC) the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts.... Yikes...SC hitting inside AND out, now lead by 15 and the moneyline mushrooms to -10,000 Late 3Q and 19 pt lead........at this point the game is out of reach for WolfPack but they could cover what is now a +20.5 ingame spread, esp considering I think SC is going to rest their 6'7" star center with the sore leg..... maybe.....
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC) the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts.... Yikes...SC hitting inside AND out, now lead by 15 and the moneyline mushrooms to -10,000 Late 3Q and 19 pt lead........at this point the game is out of reach for WolfPack but they could cover what is now a +20.5 ingame spread, esp considering I think SC is going to rest their 6'7" star center with the sore leg..... maybe.....
4Q intermission and it's 61 - 37 ...rout 
Unless there is a serious injury, we are looking at this year's WNCAA champions 
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Posted:
#691
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC) the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts.... Yikes...SC hitting inside AND out, now lead by 15 and the moneyline mushrooms to -10,000 Late 3Q and 19 pt lead........at this point the game is out of reach for WolfPack but they could cover what is now a +20.5 ingame spread, esp considering I think SC is going to rest their 6'7" star center with the sore leg..... maybe..... 4Q intermission and it's 61 - 37 ...rout
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker! Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls. She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! *IF* she's unable to return AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc. ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC) the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts.... Yikes...SC hitting inside AND out, now lead by 15 and the moneyline mushrooms to -10,000 Late 3Q and 19 pt lead........at this point the game is out of reach for WolfPack but they could cover what is now a +20.5 ingame spread, esp considering I think SC is going to rest their 6'7" star center with the sore leg..... maybe..... 4Q intermission and it's 61 - 37 ...rout
Unless there is a serious injury, we are looking at this year's WNCAA champions
And sure enough....SC #2 star player Johnson, just tweaked her hamstring with 5 mins left...
0
Posted:
#692
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Lady WolfPack down 24 pts were getting +23.5 for the game but have hit a 3.....now down 21 with a +19.5 spread..... still thinking THAT line is doable, because I believe SC will rest people late
Lady WolfPack down 24 pts were getting +23.5 for the game but have hit a 3.....now down 21 with a +19.5 spread..... still thinking THAT line is doable, because I believe SC will rest people late
So, Lady Gamecocks do indeed now have 3 subs on the floor as predicted.... and with 1.5 to go their lead is down from 25 to 17
0
Posted:
#693
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Lady WolfPack down 24 pts were getting +23.5 for the game but have hit a 3.....now down 21 with a +19.5 spread..... still thinking THAT line is doable, because I believe SC will rest people late
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Lady WolfPack down 24 pts were getting +23.5 for the game but have hit a 3.....now down 21 with a +19.5 spread..... still thinking THAT line is doable, because I believe SC will rest people late
So, Lady Gamecocks do indeed now have 3 subs on the floor as predicted.... and with 1.5 to go their lead is down from 25 to 17
It took the final game shot to secure it, but a 19 point loss, means I got to pocket a small bet win of just $55, although I didn't bother posting it.
OK, hoops fans, onto the expected CLOSE game! 
Two superstars, only one winner. Place your bets!
1
Posted:
#694
So after taking that *Best Bet loss on LADY Badgers,
UPDATED: Since starting this new thread March 18 ...
NCAA MEN 19 - 2 *Best Bets!
NCAA Women 19 - 2 *Best Bets!
---------------------------------------------------------
NCAA: 38 - 4 *Best Bets!
* A similar term for *Best Bets is POD
1
Posted:
#696
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Lady WolfPack down 24 pts were getting +23.5 for the game but have hit a 3.....now down 21 with a +19.5 spread..... still thinking THAT line is doable, because I believe SC will rest people late So, Lady Gamecocks do indeed now have 3 subs on the floor as predicted.... and with 1.5 to go their lead is down from 25 to 17 It took the final game shot to secure it, but a 19 point loss, means I got to pocket a small bet win of just $55, although I didn't bother posting it.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Lady WolfPack down 24 pts were getting +23.5 for the game but have hit a 3.....now down 21 with a +19.5 spread..... still thinking THAT line is doable, because I believe SC will rest people late So, Lady Gamecocks do indeed now have 3 subs on the floor as predicted.... and with 1.5 to go their lead is down from 25 to 17 It took the final game shot to secure it, but a 19 point loss, means I got to pocket a small bet win of just $55, although I didn't bother posting it.
OK, hoops fans, onto the expected CLOSE game! Two superstars, only one winner. Place your bets!
OK, mid 1Q and UCONN is up 13 - 5 early energy.....IOWA can be had for +1.5 but I am not ready to grab yet as I want to see more of the play....
0
Posted:
#697
Quote Originally Posted by Skanless1:
Lady Badgers? Wolfpack.
Lady Badgers? Wolfpack.
@Skanless1
Hi! Sorry for the confusion I caused...I did not bet or post a bet on WolfPack (or game 2 yet either) ....My recap above was meaning my posted *BB LOSER on Lady Badgers NIT homecourt loss from April 01, and I was updating my records
Enjoy tonight's game 2.......Hawkeyes down now in mid-1Q but they will come back...
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Posted:
#700
Quote Originally Posted by Skanless1:
@fubah2 Yep. I just live bet them at +3.5
@fubah2 Yep. I just live bet them at +3.5
For me I wanna see how the 3's are dropping and in particular how key HAWKEYES are playing.....Iowa's lone starter bigman is Stuelke and she had an off game last time....I need to see her assert herself in the paint more to open up Hawkeyes ususally deadly shooting from the arc...or dump it into Stuelke (if she's playing well!)
IOWA has a LOT of early turnovers...
Concern right now is UCONN starter Muhl may be playing hurt...
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