Well learned my lesson yesterday, avoid the NIT. Teams motivation is always in question.
Kansas -11.5 (-476) vs. Howard
If you saw my write-up "Teasing the #1's" this should come as no surprise, but I will reiterate a thing or two. Since the 2016 tournament, with the exception of the Virginia loss, no #1 seed has won by less than 15 points. So in wins this has hit 100% of the time since 2016 (really dating back to the 2015 tournament, but this is when the shot clock changed which is when I think better teams got more of an advantage). During that span the average margin of victory for a 1 seed is just over 26 points. Kansas has only played 3 teams in the area of Howard this year in terms of KP. Omaha, North Dakota St., and Texas Southern, they won those games 89-64, 82-59, and 87-55. That's an average margin of victory of just under 27 points. Howard, on the other hand, has only played 3 teams inside the top 100. Those teams were Kentucky, Yale, and VCU. They lost all 3 by scores of 95-63, 86-40, 70-60. The average margin of defeat is right at 26, and none of those teams are as good as Kansas. Take the Jayhawks and lay the points, they should win by 15 at minimum.
Alabama -13.5 (-454) vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christie
Pretty much the same premises as above. 21 out of TAMCC's 23 wins came when they scored 75 or more points. I don't think they hit that mark today. They played 3 games against teams inside the top 47; Mississippi St., Arizona, and Oklahoma St. They lost those games 63-44, 99-61 and 81-58, losing by an average of just over 31. They also haven't played a top 200 opponent since starting league play. TAMCC also is in the 93rd percentile in % of FG attempts at the rim but only 32nd percentile in FG% at the rim. Alabama ranks in the 100th percentile in defensive FG% allowed at the rim. And while they are 38th in 3pt% again Alabama's 3rd ranked defense should help keep that in check as well. Alabama's defense should hold them in check and win this going away.
Houston -6.5 (-666) vs. Northern Kentucky
Bought down a little bit more since this projects to be a low scoring game, but again a 1 seed. 25 of Houston's 31 wins have been by 6.5 or more (and of their other 6 wins, 3 were by 6 exactly and 2 were by 5. Those teams to keep it under 6 were ranked (KP), 14, 55, 63, 78, 153. The instance of the 153rd ranked team saw Houston give up the most points it's allowed all season at 77. The Norse have hit 77 or more on 9 occasions this year, the highest ranked opponent in which they achieved this number was 132, against Youngstown St. Every other time they were able to accomplish this was against a team ranked 200 or worse. Looking at the last 12 tournaments (back to 2010), the #1's are 47-1, All but 1 of the 47 wins have come by 7 or more points. Houston should, historically, easily cover this number.
Duke +4.5 (555) vs. Oral Roberts
I'm not sure where the notion is coming from that Duke could lose this game, maybe its because everyone hates Duke and I'm one of them, but I don't see it. Oral Roberts has won 17 in a row but the best ranked team during that span was 160th (South Dakota St.). They do hold a win against a solid 89th ranked Liberty team but their next best win after that is against Missouri St. at 147th. Duke's only losses (8) were to teams ranked 86th or better and 5 losses were to top 44 teams. But in the off chance that Oral Roberts can do something they haven't done all year we've got 4.5 to the good.
Betting Odds: -102 1.28 units to win 1.25 units
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